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FGUS74 KSHV 201526
ESFSHV

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
926 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Sabine River Basin of East Texas...

In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example, for the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas, the flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 18.2 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
         valid for February 20, 2025 through May 20, 2025

     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Lake Fork Creek
 Quitman 4S        16  15.0 15.2 15.7 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 19.2 21.3
Sabine River
 Mineola 4S        14  16.0 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.2
 Gladewater 3WSW   26  24.9 28.9 32.1 33.0 33.5 33.9 34.9 36.3 37.9
 Longview          25  19.6 23.8 25.7 27.8 29.5 30.7 32.8 33.3 35.5
 Beckville 8NE     26  18.6 23.9 26.0 26.4 27.4 28.0 28.9 30.0 31.1
 Logansport        28  26.3 27.3 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.2 31.4 32.0 32.7
Big Sandy Creek
 Big Sandy 4NE     17  11.4 11.5 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.0 15.0 15.7 17.9
Rabbit Creek
 Kilgore           10  9.8  11.7 12.1 12.3 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.5 17.2

 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee  280.4 280.4 280.4 280.5 280.5 280.8 281.1 281.3 281.6
Lk Martin    306.2 306.3 306.3 306.4 306.5 306.7 306.9 307.5 307.8
Lk Murvaul   265.9 266.1 266.2 266.3 266.6 267.0 267.3 267.6 268.4

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities
computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also
account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be
determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/wfo/shv (internet
address URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

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