046
FXUS64 KSHV 111533
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1033 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Top of the hour readings are in the 60s along I-20 with some
cooler valley areas. The southwest winds are mixing down drier air
to the morning dew. Wall to wall to sunshine with highs on track
for close to 80 degrees. Our average for mid March is generally 10
degrees cooler, so get ready for Spring to give Winter a break
too. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Upper ridging will return to the region Thursday, as attention turns
toward a potent upper trough and associated cyclone that will eject
eastward into the Plains by Friday morning. Yesterday mornings speed
differences between the two global models of the GFS and ECMWF seem
to have been resolved overnight, though the new question this
morning is where thunderstorm development will initiate and how far
east it will. Some guidance this morning suggests that thunderstorms
originate across the eastern zones (east of I-49), mature, and
quickly depart. Regardless, conducive parameters will exist by the
afternoon as a dry line enters the FSR, with a cold front quickly
catching up from the west. Given the uncertainty, Friday will need
to be closely monitored in the coming days as hazards will be
refined by the arrival of new guidance. Regardless of the
convection, Friday will be breezy as southerly winds between 15-20
mph will be possible, with non-thunderstorm wind gusts as high as 30
mph through the afternoon.

As the cold front sweeps across the region late Friday, into
Saturday AM, this will shift the location of severe storms and the
associated hazards east of the forecast zone. That being said, much
of the region will remain dry as the front sweeps moisture east,
with the continuation the dry weather expected to end the
weekend. At the same time, post frontal influence will keep
temperatures mild for Sunday before temperatures quickly rebound
to start next week.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

For the 11/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing clear
skies across the region that are expected to prevail throughout
this TAF period. Winds will be out of the southwest this morning,
transitioning to more of a southerly wind by this afternoon. Winds
will remain at or under 10 kts this morning, with some breezy
conditions later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Some
wind gusts could approach or exceed 20 kts. Winds should weaken by
this evening and remain under 10 kts through the rest of the
night. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 0501 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but may be needed
for severe storms Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  54  82  59 /   0   0  20  40
MLU  78  51  78  60 /   0   0   0  40
DEQ  77  48  78  50 /   0   0  30  40
TXK  79  53  79  56 /   0   0  20  50
ELD  77  50  78  56 /   0   0  10  50
TYR  79  56  81  54 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  78  54  80  55 /   0   0  20  30
LFK  78  55  79  57 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...33