961
FXUS64 KSHV 212330
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Heat advisory/warning hazards continue through this evening and
   will be needed for some areas again Wednesday, but a weak cool
   front advancing into our northern zones will dictate changes.

 - Although this front isn`t expected to bring rainfall, slightly
   milder temperatures and drier air will take the edge off the
   heat for a few days late this week.

 - The heat "relief" will be brief as the front will stall and
   lift back north by the weekend while Tropical Storm Bertha is
   expected to move inland across SE TX with no impacts for us.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Dangerous heat will continue to impact the region this afternoon
and early evening as our current heat headlines remain unchanged
for now. To avoid confusion going forward into Wednesday, updates
to heat advisory/warning products will be made with the expiration
of the current headlines later on this evening. At the moment, it
appears areas along and south of I-20 will warrant an Extreme Heat
Warning for Wednesday as compressional warming occurs in advance
of a weak cool front advancing into our northern zones Wednesday
morning. It`s possible a Heat Advisory may be needed as a buffer
between areas in the warning and those in our far northern zones
where heat headlines don`t appear necessary on Wednesday given the
earlier arrival of the front. It will take some time for this air
mass to filter farther south, thus the need for a continuation of
heat headlines in our southern zones where heat indices are likely
to peak in excess of 110 degrees on Wednesday. Once again, future
updates will outline this threat in more specificity this evening.

Once we move beyond Wednesday, the slight reprieve from our recent
heat and humidity will only last a few days. At most, we may shave
a few degrees off of afternoon highs for Thursday and Friday along
with slightly lower dew points but this will all be short-lived.
By early this weekend, the front will quickly lift back north as
the upper ridge continues to largely dominate across all of the SW
and S Cntrl CONUS. Therefore, expect temperatures to trend hotter
as upper 90s become widespread once again with a few triple-digit
highs mixed each day from this weekend into early next week. With
the track of Tropical Storm Bertha expected to remain well to our
south, rain chances will remain largely negligible. So beyond the
stray afternoon convection across our eastern zones today and any
isolated pop-up activity through this weekend, look for rain-free
conditions to prevail as we enter what is climatologically our
hottest period of the year from late July into early August.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at most terminals.
The tail end of showers around KMLU should dissipate soon after
the start of this package, staying VFR through the rest of the
period. Winds will be light and variable overnight before shifting
northeasterly and strengthening late tomorrow morning. Expect
winds to hover around 10 kts, with some sites occasionally
gusting higher during the afternoon. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82 100  76  95 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  80  98  76  94 /  20   0   0  10
DEQ  78  97  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  80  98  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  78  97  72  93 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  81 102  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  81 101  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  80 102  78  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ004>006-
     013-014-019>022.

     Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ001>003-010>012-
     017-018.

OK...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ096-097.

     Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57