270
FXUS64 KSHV 172326
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- Dangerous summertime heat will continue into the beginning of
  the work week with less of a chance for relief from showers or
  thunderstorms. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday
  at 8pm as a result.

- Drier and hotter weather conditions (the hottest weather of the
  year) are here to stay into the middle of this week before the
  next break from this pattern arrives. /16/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The hottest time of the year is upon the Four State Region to
start the work week. Broad ridging in place across the area will
gradually shift back westward into the Intermountain West by
Monday, introducing light northwesterly surface flow for some
drier air to filter in. This drier air, carrying dew points down
to lower 70s, will heat up slightly more efficiently for afternoon
temperatures to reach or surpass the 100-degree mark (especially
by Tuesday as guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of exceedance).
Heat indices may become high enough for at least one Excessive
Heat Warning before the synoptic pattern changes. Long-range
guidance continues to suggest the pattern change coming with the
arrival of a frontal boundary and ridging peripherally influenced
by Hurricane Erin as it is expected to pass by and miss landfall
on the U.S. East Coast.

Around this time of the year, this reminder comes around
frequently. That said, I want to reiterate its importance and
reinforce the life-saving mentality behind it:

Heat hazard products are almost fully certain to be issued on
multiple days with dangerous, prolonged heat contributing to
cumulative heat stress. Adequate precautions and awareness are
encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses.
This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans,
taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the
backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the 18/00z TAF update...watching a few showers and
thunderstorms moving through portions of the area this evening.
They have been very isolated in nature so their impact to any
given terminal has been short lived. A local example...a quick
storm popped up just south of KSHV, produced some rain on portions
of the airport but not all of the airport. We are watching some
more robust storms starting to move into the eastern portion of
our forecast area that will impact KMLU here shortly. Once things
start to weaken and dissipate later this evening, VFR conditions
will return and prevail for most terminals. I do have mention of
some BR for KSHV, KMLU, KLFK, KGGG, and KELD later tonight but
even this will be very isolated in nature. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 101  78 101 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  76 100  76 101 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  73 100  74 100 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  77 102  77 102 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  74 100  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  76  98  77 100 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  75 100  75 100 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  75  99  75  99 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33