863
FXUS64 KSHV 140020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

 - Despite chances of rain, conditions will still remain hot and
   humid enough across the Four State Region for another Heat
   Advisory through 8 PM tomorrow.

 - The same moist air mass in place over the area will contribute
   to more efficient rainfall rates, boosting flash flooding
   potential with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

 - Afternoon convection will continue through the rest of this
   workweek before drier conditions start to return over the
   weekend. /16/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Persistent upper-level troughing will drive the majority of
weather activity through the next 48-60 hours. This particular
trough axis is oriented mostly along the I-30 corridor and will
meander parallel to this area, not just instigating convection but
also focusing higher moisture levels (reaching above 75th
percentile in climatology in some cases). The same moist, tropical
air mass will also reinforce hazardous heat with dew points in
the mid-70s not allowing much in the way of relief from
temperature maximums in the mid-90s and heat indices of 105-109
degrees. Long range guidance suggests more of the same with
slightly drier air allowing for temperature maximums potentially
in the upper 90s.

Around this time of the year, this reminder comes around
frequently. That said, I want to reiterate its importance and
reinforcing the life-saving mentality behind it:

Heat hazard products are almost fully certain to be issued through
the rest of this week with dangerous, prolonged heat contributing
to cumulative heat stress. Adequate precautions and awareness are
encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses.
This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans,
taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the
backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, KMLU is our only terminal looking at
any impacts before sunset with a cluster of TS just S of I-20
moving eastward with a tempo for the next 2 hrs. Otherwise, little
change for us with hot afternoons, and abundant moisture. The
column is all light SW flow aloft 10-30KT, but we are NW-N 5-10KT
from the SFC up to 7-8kft. Looking less likely for convection from
KTYR to KTXK/KELD for Thursday. All other sites have aftn VCTS
for now. More isold coverage can be expected for the week`s end.
/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through today. That said, flash
flooding potential will be higher than usual across East Texas,
and any reports of flooding from spotters are appreciated. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  96  77 /  30  30  50  20
MLU  96  75  96  75 /  40  30  70  20
DEQ  94  71  94  72 /  30  10  20  10
TXK  96  75  98  75 /  40  20  30  10
ELD  96  72  94  72 /  30  20  40  10
TYR  93  74  95  76 /  40  20  30  10
GGG  93  74  95  75 /  40  30  40  10
LFK  95  74  96  74 /  50  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24