937
FXUS64 KSHV 281726
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Under the influence upper ridging, temperatures are trending as
expected so far this morning on our way to the lower and mid 90s
for afternoon highs. Despite the influence of the upper ridge,
still anticipating some isolated to widely scattered convection
this afternoon and did expand slight chance PoPs to account for
this slim possibility. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no
other changes needed at this time. Updated text products have been
issued.

/19/

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

 - Climatologically consistent temperatures are expected to
   persist through the extended period, however, heat indices may
   approach or exceed advisory thresholds across portions of the
   region by early next week.

 - Diurnally driven convective activity will remain possible each
   afternoon, and while we could see more widespread activity next
   week, associated widespread QPF values are expected to remain
   minimal.

 - Guidance continues to indicate the potential advection of
   Saharan Dust into the Gulf early next week, which could impact
   our area on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Not much change in the forecast for the rest of the weekend and
into next week from what the last two forecast packages have
discussed. Near to slightly above average temperatures along with
scattered, afternoon and early evening convection driven
primarily by diurnal instability will continue through much of
next week. One difference as we head into next week though is that
thunderstorms probabilities seem to be a little more widespread in
coverage across the region. Afternoon highs will be fairly
consistent each day through next Friday with temperatures ranging
from the lower to mid 90s each day. Lows will follow in a similar
pattern, with not much variability each night, generally ranging
from the lower to mid 70s each night.

Heat indices will remain elevated for today and Sunday, but
should remain just below our Heat Advisory criteria of 105
degrees. There could be some days next week where portions of the
area will exceed the threshold and could require a Heat Advisory,
but it still mostly seems borderline at best. Last thing to
mention is that guidance continues to support the arrival of a
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) or otherwise known as the Saharan Dust
early next week that could impact our region. Saharan Dust is
fairly typical for this time of the year as the Atlantic Trade
winds strengthen. The results of this could bring some increased
haze and reduced air quality. While I am closer to adding some
haze into the forecast, I will probably hold off for one more
night and then based on what I see tonight can add it then if the
day-shift does not.

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail across most terminals at the beginning of
the 28/18z period. A scattered cu field will remain through the
afternoon with some popcorn convection possible. VCTS is included
at sites with the greatest confidence, but could pop up elsewhere.
Storms will die soon after sunset and leave light southerly winds
overnight. Some patchy fog could develop around sunrise that
would gradually lift through the late morning hours. /57/



&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Diurnally driven convection will be possible once again this
afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of
producing strong wind gusts, however, widespread severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time so spotter
activation is not likely needed today or tonight. Nonetheless, any
reports would be appreciated from any of the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  78  95 /  10  20   0  20
MLU  75  95  75  94 /  10  30  10  40
DEQ  72  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  40
TXK  77  96  76  95 /  10  10   0  30
ELD  74  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  30
TYR  75  93  75  92 /   0  10   0  20
GGG  74  93  75  92 /   0  10   0  20
LFK  73  92  75  93 /   0  50   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...57