858
FXUS64 KSHV 191136
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
536 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

 - Warm conditions will continue through the week as highs climb
into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

 - Scattered showers return to southeastern zones this afternoon,
with areawide showers and storms Friday into early Saturday.

 - Cool down in store early next week, with near or below freezing
morning lows and highs in the 50s, while quiet conditions prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Another mild night is in store across the ArkLaTex, as lows drop
only into the middle to upper 50s north to middle 60s south, with
sustained southwest winds again making fog development unlikely.
Winds will shift westerly and become increasingly elevated through
the afternoon, particularly across our northern zones, while
conditions will be quite warm again, climbing into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Guidance is resolving some clearing across our northwest
through the day, while skies remain overcast south and east with the
development of scattered showers into the afternoon.

On the synoptic scale, upper level southwesterly flow will continue
through the remainder of the week, as developing troughs to our
north struggle to make much of a dent in this pattern. This set up
will be conducive to funnel moisture into the region. Today`s
isolated rainfall chances across our south and east will dwindle
overnight before returning in force Friday across a larger portion
of the region- though still generally concentrated to the south and
eastern zones, with some isolated embedded thunderstorms possible
overnight into Saturday morning.

By late in the weekend, a more progressive pattern finally gets into
motion, with a trough at last sweeping out the surface frontal
boundary responsible for the rainfall. Latest timing estimates keep
Saturday morning rainy near-areawide before showers come to an end
during the afternoon and evening. Upper level ridging will quickly
build in overhead, making for a quiet conclusion to this extended
forecast period, while high temperatures drop from the 70s to 50s
with the frontal passage Sunday, gradually warming into early next
week. Low temperatures look to fall back to near or slightly below
freezing behind the front next Monday and Tuesday morning.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

For the 19/12z TAF update...MVFR conditions currently prevail for
all terminals this morning thanks to some lower clouds that have
settled in across the region. Expecting these clouds to start to
clear from west to east during the late morning hours. We could
see some light rain or drizzle at KMLU and KLFK today, but
confidence is not high enough to mention it at this time. Thinking
lower ceilings will settle back into the region again tonight.
Winds through the day will be out of the south to southwest, with
some gusts this afternoon around 20 kts possible. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through the end of this week.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  53  73  58 /  10   0  20  20
MLU  78  55  73  57 /  10  20  20  40
DEQ  77  39  66  44 /   0   0  10  20
TXK  81  47  71  52 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  78  47  69  48 /  10   0  20  30
TYR  81  50  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  50  70  58 /  10   0  20  10
LFK  79  58  76  62 /  20   0  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33