701
FXUS64 KSHV 231136 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

 - Stellar late summer weekend as advertised thanks to the lower
   afternoon humidity with abundant sunshine.

 - Fresh high pressure will edge our way during Monday and get a
   good push under the rain clouds on Tuesday.

 - Light NW flow aloft will bring more rain later in the new
   work/school week, keeping the excessive heat at bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

High pressure continues to build in the cool night air and will
make for a couple of nice comfortable mornings this weekend
areawide. Abundant sunshine with some fair weather cu will rule
the days with some high clouds perhaps over our southern tier with
nearby convection along the stationary front along I-10. Lots of
sunshine and still warm soil temps will make for average afternoon
in the low to mid 90s for the next two to three days. However, the
drier air will keep the excessive feels like heat under control.

The current high pressure centered over the MS River Valley will
soon be reinforced out of Canada early next week keeping the NE
winds going and with that lower humidity in the afternoons this
weekend. This precludes any concerns with the excessive heat for
a while. It`s really a super nice way to end the month of August
with the chance to see average rainfall helping us out along with
the added cloud coverage taming the late summer sunshine. Tuesday
looks perhaps to be our coolest and wettest day overall with the
WPC Day 5 ERO across our northern half of our Four-State area.
Some highs may keep to the 70s in OK/AR with 80s through midweek.

The upper level heat ridge will remain over the intermountain west
and set us up for some light NW flow over the midweek stationary
front lingering to end the work week, bringing more clouds and
rain chances along with cooler temps. The GFS is little slower
than the ECMWF, so we will see how that all pans out beyond this
beautiful weekend. The CPC 6 to 10 day forecast in posted on our
home page and agrees with slightly cooler temperatures through the
Labor Day holiday. And with that better than average rain
chances. All good news considering we remain in a la Nina Watch
for this fall and winter bringing drier than average rainfall in
what is generally our wet season. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 23/12Z TAF period,
although patchy FG may affect the LFK terminal through 14Z before
lifting. Areas of elevated cu/low AC cigs continue to
develop/slowly drift S across E TX/SW AR/extreme NW LA, and may
persist through much of the day, with an additional scattered
lower cu field developing by late morning/midday with the onset of
daytime heating. Very isolated convection can`t be ruled out by
mid and late afternoon across portions of E TX S of I-20 as well
as Wrn LA, before diminishing alongside the cu field by/shortly
after sunset. Some thin cirrus should spill SE into the region
from the NW this evening/overnight, affecting all terminals but
LFK. NNE winds 5-7kts today will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  94  71  94  68 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  96  74  96  71 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  94  69  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  71  97  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15