046
FXUS64 KSHV 052001
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Warm and muggy/hazy this afternoon with only a light S/SW wind
for most of us with several locales even showing calm. Dew points
are up there in the low to mid 70s and our heat indices are
edging into triple digit "feels-like" territory for a few spots.
Our skies are partly to mostly cloudy and we have lower and upper
decking at this time. Some TCUs with a light peppering of showers
few and far between, likely due to the elevated concentrations of
particulates with the Saharan dust encroachment. The closest
lightning is well north of Little Rock and there are some larger
clusters in W OK.

There is an inverted surface trough over W TX and much of OK and
this breeding ground will persist for new development under the
light W/SW flow aloft with a weak air mass around 1015mb over the
plains. The upper trough will slowly be sliding E/SE in the
coming days ahead of the air mass activity. This will boost our
convective coverage into the weekend, but rising heights aloft for
now us will amount to more heating on the surface in the short term.
Highs will make a nudge toward more low to mid 90s and lows will
see low to mid 70s as the muggies build under this weak dirty
ridging aloft we have right now and through the short term. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We will eventually see enhanced convective coverage for the
weekend, much of which may be nocturnal initially. The overnight
low level jet action sets up over the dust layer and the coming
shifting aloft to W/SW will help with the lift as well. The GFS
and ECMWF both show weak high pressure well to our north this
weekend, and then early next week, a more substantial air mass at
1018/19 mb will move over the plains states and help to focus the
better lift over the Red River Valley and across the ArkLaTex
Sunday into Monday.

So pretty normal motions for late spring really as the storm
track has been to our north for a good while already and we just
left to hover in between the super muggy and cooler and drier
air masses. The good news is that the added clouds associated
with the convection will bring less insolation, and then the
lowering heights aloft will as well along with the changing
directions up stairs will help as well. The WPC depicts these
changes for us with their excessive rainfall forecasts. We see the
Slight Risk settle into our far north early over the weekend and
then persist overhead for us with a Marginal Risk into the new
week on the days 3-5. So, as is typical this time of year, slow
storm motions play the greatest role in these numbers each day.
And increased storm numbers goes right along with that, despite
weakening production in the pattern with descending latitudes.

The WPC days 4 & 5 QPF sport the highest daily totals for us
early next week as the air mass sinks into the muggy Gulf air with
some 1 to 3 inch expectations. The greatest risk for us severe
wise will come this weekend, with the SPC Slight Risk area sinking
closer in each day, still damaging winds primary. Eventually, the
severe threat will circle back around to the isolated flooding
threat as the numbers of players (thunderstorms) on the field
increases. Our temperatures will ease back to more normalized
climatology with the added clouds and rain. Highs will see more
and more 80s by late weekend and perhaps areawide early next week.
Low temps will fall back a handful of degrees with mid to upper
60s and lower 70s in the long term picture. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

All sites have VFR or MVFR conditions prevailing, with the MVFR
conditions being mainly due to some patchy fog development. There
are some low clouds hanging around in the far western part of the
CWA with a stalled frontal boundary. These clouds could move a bit
further east and worsen conditions at our northwestern sites
through this morning. All conditions will begin to improve around
midday, but some scattered showers will be possible through the
afternoon. Westerly winds at 5kts will shift southerly and calm
overnight. Some fog development will be possible at the very end
of the period, before more widespread rain returns to the area.
/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected for today or tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  94  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  74  94  76  95 /  10  10   0  10
DEQ  71  90  71  90 /  10  30  10  30
TXK  75  93  76  94 /   0  20   0  10
ELD  71  93  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
TYR  74  91  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  92  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  93  75  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13