085
FXUS64 KSHV 171737
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1237 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

 - High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s will continue
   through the week and into the weekend, with dry conditions
   expected throughout.

 - Slight rainfall chances return early next week, but confidence
   and coverage remain unclear at this point.

 - Minor relief from the heat may be possible next week, primarily
   in the form of overnight lows in the 60s across our northern
   zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The upper-level high that has kept temperatures high will continue
shifting westward from where it was previously stuck over the
Southeast. The center of this high moving over the region will
effectively cut off most attempts of rain developing through the
remainder of the week and this weekend. The high will keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s but will also be ushering
some drier air, which will help keep heat indices lower than they
have been in recent days. Even without heat products in place, the
prolonged hot and dry conditions will continue to worsen drought
and fire weather concerns the longer we go without meaningful
rain.

The opening for a cold front and some rain on Monday look a bit more
uncertain compared to previous forecasts. The GFS and Euro have
lined up more on the 6z run: suggesting that high pressure will
restrengthen over the Ark-La-Tx and keep the influence of the upper-
level trough to the north mostly at bay. This morning`s NBM is still
painting in some slight chance PoPs during the day Monday, but are
more scattered and largely limited to western and northern zones.
WPC`s D1-7 QPF doesn`t inspire much more confidence with
accumulations of basically 0. While this isn`t what we want to be
hearing, there is still time for models to change between now and
next week.

After Tuesday, long-range model solutions return to a warm and dry
regime, with temperatures back into the mid and upper 90s.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a surface high of 1026mb is just
southwest of KATL, having pushed a drier air mass into the
midSouth, which I have termed a "SideDoor" fropa has the E/SE
wind 5-10G18KT. Aloft, we are E/NE 10-20KT for climb and S/SE
20-40KT for flight levels. The upper ridge is overhead and still
retrograding into TX this cycle. Outlook remains unchanged through
the short term into the weekend with no convection until a weak
fropa approaches late Sun/Mon. /24/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  99  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  98  70  99  69 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  98  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  98  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  98  74  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 100  73 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  72  94  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24