876
FXUS64 KSHV 150616
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
116 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Heat advisory headlines continue today with future extensions
   likely for Wednesday.

 - Rain chances remain slim to none through the remainder of this
   week into the first half of the weekend due to upper ridging.

 - The upper-level ridge is expected to weaken by Sunday with an
   upper low drifting westward over the northern Gulf, providing
   for increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Persistence forecasting relies on the past to help predict the
future, and let`s just say it`s getting old fast at this point.
Our extended stretch of late summer heat, well above average for
mid-September, has the remainder of this week to go with a decent
chance of adding more triple-digit high temperatures to our tally.
Most areas will push into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees once
again this afternoon. Then we repeat the cycle each day through
the end of this week as the center of ridge axis slowly migrates
back across our region. So it`s not out of the questions that we
could actually see high temperatures trend a degree or two higher
as we move later in the week, but who`s counting at this point?!

Meanwhile, rain chances are barely worth a mention with only the
slimmest of chances at landing under a brief shower or storm each
afternoon this week. With the need for heat advisories likely for
at least a few more days, heat safety precautions should continue
to be top of mind this week with all outdoor recreation and work
activities. This dangerous heat risk will pose a threat for rapid
onset of heat-related illnesses if precautions are not properly
adhered to while spending extended time outdoors.

As we have referenced in recent discussions, changes do appear to
be finally on the horizon. Model guidance continues to favor a
break in this heat by late in the upcoming weekend as an upper low
shifts westward across the northern Gulf. This low should help to
shunt the ridge farther westward, allowing for increasing moisture
from the Gulf and an uptick in rain chances by Sunday. Additional
rain chances and cooler temperatures should also extend into the
following week as a cold front appears poised to shift south into
our area just in time for the first day of fall on September 22nd.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the 15/06z TAF update...I have maintained some mention of lower,
but still VFR CIGs for KSHV, KTYR, KGGG towards morning, with some
MVFR CIGs mentioned for KLFK. Not super confident that KLFK will
drop that low, but since the chances are there I would rather make
mention of it. Otherwise, we should see more CU develop Tuesday
afternoon across the region, however, I did leave mention of VCTS
out as I don`t think we will see as widespread convection chances
on Tuesday. Winds will remain light throughout this period.

/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  77  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
MLU  99  76  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  99  72  98  72 /   0   0  20   0
TXK  99  76  98  76 /  10   0  20   0
ELD  99  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
TYR  99  76  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
GGG 100  75  99  75 /  10   0  20   0
LFK  96  74  95  75 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33