762
FXUS64 KSHV 101118 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
518 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - One more round of freezing temperatures across the Four State
   Region Monday night, into Tuesday morning.

 - A quick rebound in temperatures is expected through the middle
   and end of the week with highs in the 80`s returning.

 - Dry and breezy conditions through the first half of the period
   will elevate fire danger ahead of rain prospects by next
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Temperatures are quickly falling this evening under clear skies.
If it weren`t for the wind, temperatures would be lower by now,
but we continue to hold on to some breezy northwesterly winds
between 10-15 mph, with gust through the first half of the
overnight between 20-25 mph. Winds should back half a little as we
approach sunrise, which is where our best odds of seeing our
coldest temperatures of the overnight will exist. By the morning,
temperatures at or below freezing will be spread across the
region. As we work through the afternoon, temperatures will only
climb into the mid 50`s even with an abundance of sunshine across
the FA. The clash between the diurnal heating period and the cold
air advection will keep it feeling fall-like for at least one day
before we quickly rebound temperatures through the back half of
the forecast.

As the trough works east, influence from the western CONUS ridge
will allow for temperatures to progress through the 60`s, 70`s
and 80`s all before Friday. The axis of the ridge will sit
directly overhead on Friday, with eyes turning to a robust trough
working across the Rockies and into the Plains. There is respectable
agreement among the global models this far out so confidence in
rain prospects beyond day 5 is increasing. At the same time,
convective composites are already suggesting some degree of severe
potential with this feature. Given that we are days out, this is
nothing more than observation and something to watch in the seven
day forecast.

Severe potential aside, long term confidence in rain returning to
the region will be a welcomed site as dry soils and breezy
conditions behind the recent boundary will only support fire
weather concerns in the short and medium term of the forecast.
Winds will fall off a bit on Monday, but gusty winds do look to
return for the I-49 corridor and areas west on Tuesday so
following all burn bans will be critical to avoid wildfire
initiation.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 10/12Z TAF period, as SKC
will prevail. NW winds 8-12kts today will become Lt/Vrb or calm
after 00Z Tuesday. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  33  66  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  28  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  26  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  51  33  66  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  48  29  61  45 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  36  67  53 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  32  67  50 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  34  68  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15