536
FXUS64 KSHV 042353
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

 - Scattered showers and storms will push east across the
   ArkLaTex through the day today. Organized severe weather is not
   expected.

 - Heat will increase this weekend and into next week, with heat
   indices possibly reaching the triple digits, posing a potential
   hazard for extended outdoor activity.

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will resume Sunday and continue
   into next week, particularly east of the I-49 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Recent radar imagery has a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms moving northeastward toward the TX/LA state line,
with the heaviest band being north of the I-20 corridor. These
weak showers will continue to develop and move eastward across the
region today. Exact timing and coverage remains uncertain, as
the driving force behind the showers are extremely weak. Like the
typical summer afternoon storms, these will gradually diminish
through the evening, with East Texas likely being the last to dry
up. The overnight hours are looking to stay dry enough after the
showers die for firework shows to continue as planned.

The upper-level ridge that has stayed in place overhead in recent
days will begin to lose amplitude and progress eastward beginning
on Saturday. But the intensifying high pressure over the Desert
Southwest will replace the effects of the ridge in portions of
East Texas by the end of the weekend. The lack of widespread rain
and cloud cover, along with the southwesterly flow at the
surface, will begin another warming trend for the Ark-La-Tx.
Afternoon highs for next week look to be in the mid to upper 90s,
which will cause widespread heat indices of 100+. Several areas
will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria and will likely be
the main weather concern for early next week.

Long-range guidance is suggesting that the typical afternoon
thunderstorms will still be in play despite the high pressure
dominating the forecast. However, the strength of the high
pressure out west looks to be enough to largely inhibit
convective development for areas west of I-49. This may change
later in the week, as models are beginning to hint at a shortwave
trough riding the upper-level flow through parts of the Missouri
Valley. There are plenty of "if"s in that scenario that would
need to be in place to bring some relief from the heat. But
overnight lows in the 70s will have to do for the time being. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the 05/00Z TAF period, isolated to widely scattered convection
will continue to linger through early to mid evening before slowly
diminishing a few hours after sunset. Convective debris clouds are
expected to persist while maintaining VFR conditions across our
airspace, but cannot rule out some patchy fog at a few sites near
daybreak with recent rainfall contributing to moist soils. Beyond
that, look for a cu field to redevelop areawide by late morning
with light S/SE winds generally ranging between 5-10 kts during
the daytime hours and slightly lower overnight. Convection looks
to be much more sparse in coverage on Saturday so did not include
any mention of VCSH/VCTS for the latter half of the period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  77  96 /  10   0   0  20
MLU  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  70  93  71  93 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  73  97  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  93  73  94 /  20  10   0  10
GGG  74  94  73  95 /  20  10   0  10
LFK  74  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19