054
FXUS64 KSHV 200225
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
925 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Strong to severe thundersorms continue across the Red River
Valley of north Texas along a deepening surface low translating
northeast along a frontal boundary stretching from central Texas
into eastern Oklahoma. Large scale cyclogenesis to continue as an
upper-low conjoins with the deepening surface low and together
swing across the Midwest through Sunday. Based on current radar
and latest hi-res model data, any severe threat should remain
north of the ArkLaTex through the overnight hours, with the
exception of maybe a strong thunderstorm clipping Red River and
McCurtain counties after midnight. Otherwise southeast winds 10
to 15 mph to persist across East Texas overnight with slightly
lesser values elsewhere. Overnight lows forecast to average in the
mid to upper 60s. Current forecast is on track, no update needed
at this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Dense cloud cover has held temperatures slightly lower today as
compared to the past several days, but most areas are generally
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s so far this afternoon.
At the sfc, a cold front remains nearly stationary across south
central OK, extending NE from there toward the Ozarks. The front
will generally maintain its current position this afternoon into
early this evening before eventually retreating back northward
after midnight. In the meantime, the next wave of upper-level
energy is expected to lift NE across the Middle Red River Valley
as we approach sunset on through the evening hours. With some
atmospheric recovery and destabilization across our NW zones
following this morning`s convection, the threat of a few severe
thunderstorms will remain possible through mid to late evening for
areas mainly north of the I-30 corridor. This threat will diminish
by midnight as the sfc boundary begins its northward retreat. Low
temperatures will continue to run well above average with mid 60s
to lower 70s expected on Sunday morning.

As we move into the day on Sunday, the upper-level trough, which
has been painstakingly slow to eject from the Four Corners region,
will finally eastward out of the Rockies into the Central and
Southern Plains. In doing so, it will help to usher the sfc front
SE once again and eventually into our region by the afternoon with
a renewed threat of severe storms across mainly the northern half
of our region. This remains highlighted in SPC`s Day 2 convective
outlook with primary threats of damaging winds and large hail for
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Although the tornado threat
is lower due to stronger dynamics and forcing shifting north and
east into the Ozarks and MO Valley, the threat isn`t altogether
negligible so will have to monitor for a few discrete storms out
ahead of the main thunderstorm complex which should be more linear
as the day progresses.

By midnight into the pre-dawn hours on Monday, the severe threat
will diminish as the trough continues to eject away from the area
and the sfc front encounters less instability as it progresses
deeper in the region. However, convection will likely remain quite
expansive across the SE half of the region due to the very slow
frontal progression. The good news is we will finally see a slight
downturn in temperatures to begin the new work week.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to stall out early
in the week and eventually lift back northward as a warm front on
Tuesday. Looking aloft, SW flow will begin to ramp up once again
and provide the necessary forcing for additional showers and
thunderstorms throughout much of the week. The first significant
shortwave is progged to arrive on Wednesday, but severe weather
remains uncertain at this time given some timing discrepancies in
the medium-range guidance.

The next major disturbance looks to arrive late Thursday night
into Friday with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
expected through the end of the week. By this time, the concern
may begin to turn to more of a heavy rainfall and flooding threat
while severe weather will also certainly be something to monitor
as well given the time of year. In terms of temperatures, expect
them to trend back above normal beginning Tuesday with the warm
frontal passage and remain so through the remainder of the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For the 20/00z TAF update...Still a chance for some shower or
thunderstorm development this evening, looks like most of the
activity right now is well to our west, nonetheless have
maintained some VCTS for KTYR as this will be one of the first
impacted should anything materialize. Otherwise, CIGs will bring
more MVFR conditions later this evening and into the overnight
hours with some showers and thunderstorms increasing by around
20/12z. Winds will remain gusty throughout most of this period.
/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Spotter activation may become necessary by late afternoon into the
evening hours today for areas near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor. Spotter activation may become necessary for at least
the northern half of the Four State Region on Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  85  62  81 /  10  80  80  30
MLU  69  87  67  76 /   0  40  70  70
DEQ  64  79  49  79 /  60  90  20   0
TXK  69  83  55  81 /  30  80  50  10
ELD  67  85  59  81 /  10  80  90  40
TYR  69  80  56  81 /  30  70  30  10
GGG  68  82  56  81 /  20  80  60  20
LFK  70  86  62  80 /  10  80  80  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...33