659
FXUS64 KSHV 011549
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1049 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Some 10 am temps are looming hot already while others remain light rain
cooled in the 70s. As of this writing it is 90 at Shreveport
regional with a great dew point of 70 and low HX now, but this
could spike with afternoon sunshine and some advection of moister
air into the mix. So to hot air on the side of caution, we have
issued a brief mid to late afternoon Heat Advisory for deep east
TX with 87 now in Lufkin, to Shreveport and over to Monroe where
it`s cooler, but moister. This will do it for the heat products
for a while with the cold front still arguably on our norther
fringe of Counties in AR. We also expanded the PoPs a bit over
three states with Texarkana seeing rain for last two obs. New
update to the day one ERO will show an expansion of Slight Risk
over NE TX to include a sliver of S OK and closer to NW LA. /24/

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
   across much of the Four-State area on Friday and Friday night
   with slow movement along the cold front. Some of NE TX will
   have a Slight Excessive Risk Outlook through Friday evening and
   overnight.

 - High pressure behind the front to bring much cooler
   temperatures through Tuesday.

 - Could see a warming trend from midweek onward as the upper-
   ridge rebuilds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

An upper-trough lingering across the region from Friday onward into
early next week to allow for an unsettled weather pattern across the
region with scattered to widespread afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day. A cold front diving south across the region
to settle across the northern gulf coast on Friday afternoon
bringing some of the highest rain chances of the weekend, mainly
along and south of I-20. Increased diurnal mixing will result in
sufficient cloud cover and precipitation to keep most of the region
out of heat headline criteria, with post-frontal high temperatures
on Friday to range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s across most of
the region. On Saturday, high temperatures in the upper 80s can
be expected areawide.

Cold front moving across northeast Texas could tap into high
moisture laden air on Friday night potentially generating an MCV
from DFW eastward along the I-20 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall
may develop as far east as the Tyler/Longview area with 2-3 inch
rainfall totals possible over a short period of time.

Pattern to remain unchanged through Tuesday with a cooler airmass
remaining firmly established across the region limiting high
temperatures to the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to near 70. Additionally, the lingering upper-
trough across the region will continue to provide opportunities
for showers and thunderstorms through midweek. By Wednesday into
Thursday, upper-level ridging to build east bringing increased
subsidence which will allow for hot and dry conditions to return
to the ArkLaTex.

/05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the 01/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions largely prevail early
this morning with an abundance of mid and upper level convective
debris clouds. The lone exception has been KTXK where some patchy
fog and low stratus has resulted in intermittent IFR/LIFR cigs.
Given the recent heavy rainfall there over the past 12 hours, did
maintain TEMPO conditions for the lower cigs/vsby through mid-late
morning. Otherwise, any additional fog or low stratus should be
rather isolated and mainly confined to areas north of I-20 through
mid to late morning with lesser coverage elsewhere. Beyond that,
expect another robust cu field to develop with daytime heating and
VCTS warranted by early to mid afternoon at nearly all terminals.
More focused convection may hold off until late in the period
from late this evening into early Saturday morning as a weak cool
front continues to sag slowly southward through our airspace. Lgt
and vrbl winds will generally prevail through much of the period
around 5 kts or less before trending more NEly with fropa.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and overnight
tonight due to the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding, mainly
across parts of Northeast Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  89  72 /  40  50  50  10
MLU  94  74  91  69 /  60  30  40  10
DEQ  87  70  88  64 /  50  40  20   0
TXK  91  73  90  68 /  40  40  30   0
ELD  88  70  88  64 /  40  20  20  10
TYR  97  73  88  71 /  50  60  60  10
GGG  95  73  87  70 /  50  60  60  10
LFK  98  74  90  73 /  50  40  80  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>003-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19