778
FXUS64 KSHV 171856
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
156 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Widespread upper 90s/lower triple-digit high temperatures will
   continue throughout this week, maintaining an elevated risk for
   heat-related illnesses.

 - Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from
   flash drought will support the threat of quick fire starts and
   rapid fire spreads.

 - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will
   exist for isolated convection over the next week as the upper
   ridge axis retrogrades slightly farther west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Early afternoon temperatures are nearly identical to 24 hours ago
with few exceptions as mostly sunny skies continue to dominate
under this ridge regime. The center of the ridge axis has slowly
retrograded slightly westward since yesterday, creating a small
opening for a weak boundary to sink into the Ouachitas of SE OK
and adjacent SW AR. However, the strength of the ridge continues
to steer the vast majority of convection associated with this
front to our north across Central AR. Still opted to maintain
some very low-end rain chances across our northernmost zones this
afternoon through the early evening before resuming a rain-free
forecast areawide overnight. Very warm and muggy overnight low
temperatures prevail with mid and upper 70s to lower 80s likely
holding on throughout the week in addition to near triple-digit
highs, albeit a degree or two less by the end of the week if that
is any consolation.

The weak boundary referenced above will lift back northward on
Tuesday while the upper ridge continues to retrograde farther
west through mid to late week. However, we`re far from done with
the ridge`s influence on our region as it will continue to largely
dominate our weather given its expansive reach and amplification.
In fact, medium-range guidance continues to suggest the center of
the ridge axis will actually begin to shift back eastward across
the Southern Plains by later this weekend so don`t expect much in
the way of heat relief anytime soon. With that in mind, the Heat
Advisory has already been extended through Wednesday evening and
likely will require further extensions through the end of the week
if not into this weekend.

As for any additional rain chances beyond today in our northern
tier counties, a stray afternoon shower or storm certainly can`t
be ruled out this time of year but those will be very few and far
between throughout of the remainder of this week and the weekend
even as another weak boundary attempts to backdoor into our NE
zones by late Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, this doesn`t
appear to offer any notable increase in rain chances with perhaps
some slightly milder and drier air for our SW Arkansas counties.
Otherwise, persistence carries on into late August with heat and
drought concerns mounting in addition to potential fire weather
impacts.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period for all sites with very
little cloud cover. The boundary to the north has kept thunderstorms
clear of KTXK/KELD and shows no signs of propagating further south
as of yet. The main thing of note will be winds as they lighten
overnight tonight, restrengthening and shifting westerly during the
day tomorrow. Winds should generally stay around 5-10 kts during the
afternoon.

/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials
and fire department personnel.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81 103  81 101 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  80 103  80 101 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73 104  75 103 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  78 103  79 102 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  77 102  78 100 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  79 102  81 100 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78 104  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76 101  77  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57