376
FXUS64 KSHV 161744
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Much of the region remains blanketed in cloud cover late this
morning, but that is doing little to slow the warming process as
most locations have already surged well into the 80s while dew
points range from the lower to mid 70s. Suffice it to say the
atmosphere isn`t lacking in heat or moisture, and expect further
destabilization through this afternoon with cap erosion gradually
giving way to convective initiation across our NW zones by mid to
late afternoon. This convection should further propagate SE over
much of our NW half through the evening hours with severe storms
possible during this late afternoon into early evening timeframe.
Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats at this
time and while the tornado threat is lower, it`s not completely
negligible in this late spring environment. Further details will
be forthcoming with the afternoon forecast package, which should
coincide closely with convective initiation later this afternoon.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Main story in the short-term portion of the forecast revolves
around the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Radar
imagery is showing some thunderstorms ongoing across Arkansas
early this morning with some light rain showers showing up across
our far northern zones. Nothing to be too concerned about right
now, but something to keep our eye on for sure. Our eyes will
mainly be hyper focused on the threat of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. Very moist air will be in place across our region
today with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Storms will have a
hard time developing through the early afternoon hours with some
decent capping in place. However, as we move later into the
afternoon and early evening hours this cap should begin to break
as a mid-level jet moves eastward. As a result, thunderstorms will
begin to develop across northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
Short range guidance is hit or miss on the exact location of the
worst of the storms and how they continue into the evening.
However, any storms that do develop should be capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds with some very large hail in some
of the more intense supercell structures. Because of this, we have
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms painted across much of the
area.

Thunderstorms should diminish some heading into the overnight
hours giving us a short break before our next round develops late
Saturday afternoon and continues into the evening hours. Right now
it looks like storms will develop initially along a dryline across
north-central Texas that will congeal into an MCS as it moves east
through our area. Typically with these types of systems, the
initial threat will be for very large hail with any supercells
that develop before it congeals into an MCS and then once this
happens the main threat will transition to a wind threat across
the area. I think there will be more of a tornado threat across
far northeast Texas as storms initially develop as well, but this
should diminish some as things start to take on the MCS form. That
being said, can`t ever rule out a tornado in these parts with any
types of thunderstorms that move through.

As for temperatures...it is going to be warm, muggy and
uncomfortable through Saturday as our bodies try to adjust to the
warmth again. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

There remains some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday. That
being said, trends are showing that the worst of the storms will
be well to the west of our area, but we do remain in a Marginal
Risk from SPC across the northern half for Sunday. Rinse and
repeat for Monday and Tuesday, although at this timeframe,
confidence becomes less on the strength and location of the
thunderstorms, so we will need to continue to monitor the forecast
for the potential of severe weather through the middle of the
week. Our final system for the week looks to come on Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area.
This will bring us some cooler temperatures for the end of the
week with highs returning to the 70s and 80s. Enjoy it while you
can, it is only a matter of time before the unbearable heat
returns. With all these chances of rain, the 7-day QPF amounts
will be highest across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas where some widespread 2-3 inches will be
possible. With all this coming over the span of 4-5 days, there
shouldn`t be any widespread flooding concerns at this time. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Regional sites are prevailing either VFR ceilings or high MVFR
ceilings this period. MVFR sites should see lower ceilings scatter
out over the next hour or so, leaving elevated overcast skies. The
next 6 hours will have pretty consistent conditions. A near
stationary cold front should begin to be an initiation point for
showers and storms beginning around 17/00z, impacting KTXK and
KTYR first. The storms should stay elevated as they move eastward
over the next several hours, possibly impacting other terminals.
Some of these storms may be severe, especially in areas along and
north of the I-20 corridor.

Surface winds will stay mostly southerly above 10kts through the
afternoon and begin coming down in intensity overnight. Ceilings
should stay VFR until beginning to fall again around 17/12z. MVFR
ceilings are most likely, but a brief drop to high IFR levels
can`t be ruled out. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with
any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe
thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening
over much of the same area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  74  93 /  40  30  50  10
MLU  75  93  73  92 /  30  30  40  10
DEQ  64  87  67  86 /  30  30  60  30
TXK  70  91  71  90 /  40  40  60  20
ELD  69  91  70  91 /  50  30  60  20
TYR  72  90  72  91 /  40  40  40  10
GGG  72  91  72  92 /  40  30  50  10
LFK  74  94  73  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...57