182
FXUS64 KSHV 230317
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1017 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

The region is generally clear of convection, other than a few
remaining stray showers/t-storms. Expect clear to partly cloudy
skies over the region overnight, with some low clouds returning
near and just after daybreak Monday morning. Also, can`t rule out
some patchy fog in areas that received rainfall today. This will
mostly be confined to most of east Texas, along with portions of
our Louisiana and Arkansas zones along and west of I-49 corridor.
Morning lows will once again fall into the mid to upper 70s
areawide. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Broad ridging aloft and at the surface centered over the Central
Appalachians and covering the Ohio River Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast CONUS is keeping a rather consistent on-shore low-level
flow over the Four State Region. Widely scattered, diurnally-
driven convection has moved inland from the Louisiana coast to as
far north as the Interstate 30 corridor of East Texas. This
activity should begin to gradually diminish in coverage by very
late afternoon as daytime heating wanes and should dissipate
completely early this evening. Warm and muggy conditions are
expected tonight with overnight low temperatures only falling into
the lower to middle 70s.

Monday is expected to be very similar to today as the overall
synoptic conditions remain mostly stagnant for our region. Strong
upper ridge will remain firmly entrenched over the Eastern CONUS.
Model guidance suggests there may be slightly increased coverage
of both diurnal convection and clouds during the day Monday as a
couple of weak perturbations in the flow aloft rotate around the
upper ridge. Rain chances should remain limited mostly to
locations southeast of a line from Lufkin TX to El Dorado AR. The
expected increase in cloud cover may be enough to cool daytime
high temperatures by a degree or two compared to today, although
still expected to be in the lower to middle 90s. That introduces
uncertainty in where to place a Heat Advisory for Monday.
Confidence is moderate to high that an advisory will likely need
to be issued somewhere in our CWA, as peak heat index values
should be between 100 and 105 degrees F in most areas. However,
confidence is not high in the exact locations and coverage of the
highest heat indices. Therefore, a new issuance will be left to
the evening and mid shifts. However, the most likely locations are
generally the same as today`s advisory.

Similar to today, any convection that does develop should
dissipate early Monday evening.

Nuttall

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Overall, a general persistence forecast is expected through next
Saturday. Tuesday will be very similar to Monday. However, the
strong upper level ridge is expected to gradually expected
westward during the work week. The center of the upper ridge
should retrograde more into Tennessee and Kentucky while the
surface ridge migrates more to the southwest. As a result,
subsidence should gradually increase overhead, and rain chances
will decrease and becoming more confined to our southernmost
counties of Deep East Texas and parishes of Central Louisiana.
The increased subsidence and decreased rain chances will also
combine to result in a slow warming trend through the week.
Daytime high temperatures may be in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees F in several locations by Thursday and Friday, especially
across Louisiana. This should also be the most likely area to need
Heat Advisories over the coming week.

Nuttall

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the 23/00z TAF update...Watching a number of thunderstorms
moving across eastern Texas and western Louisiana this evening.
Right now the main impact has been felt for LFK, TYR, and GGG,
however, they could start to impact SHV shortly. We are also
watching additional thunderstorms that are approaching from the
east, but confidence is not very great that much of it will make
it into our area. Expecting this activity to decrease greatly once
we loose the influence of the heating of the day, but there could
be some lingering thunderstorms into the evening hours. Expect
brief gusty winds from the thunderstorms as they are decaying
along with any outflow boundaries that set up. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  96  78  96 /  20  10   0  20
MLU  74  94  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  72  92  73  93 /  10  10   0  20
TXK  76  96  76  95 /  20  10   0  20
ELD  73  94  73  94 /  10  20   0  20
TYR  74  91  75  93 /  20  10   0  10
GGG  74  93  74  94 /  20  10   0  20
LFK  74  94  73  94 /  20  30   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33