540
FXUS64 KSHV 170553
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

 - Oppressive heat will continue areawide Sunday through midweek
   with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to in
   excess of 100 degrees, and resultant heat indices up to 110
   degrees.

 - Minor relief from the heat in the form of isolated to widely
   scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain
   possible for some through the first part of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Weak low level ridging remains anchored over the Lower MS Valley
early this morning, with the progs remaining in general agreement
with this feature retrograding slowly W into SE TX/Sabine Valley
later this morning/afternoon, maintaining Lt/Vrb winds through the
day. Meanwhile, upper ridging centered over the Ozarks/Mid MS
Valley will remain anchored in place through the afternoon, but
expand into the region allowing for a deeper wedge of drier air
aloft to backdoor farther through more of NCntrl LA by afternoon.
Unfortunately, this will not translate into a drier sfc air mass
as PW`s through the column should still range from 1.7-2.0 inches, and
thus, the extreme heating should result in more isolated afternoon
convection coverage over much of the region today, before
diminishing by sunset. Thus, have expanded the slight chance pops
areawide over the drier/popless NBM (except for the Srn zones),
before the ridging aloft begins to expand farther E through the TN
valley into the Mid-Atlantic states later tonight/Monday.

The main concern through the short term period though remains the
oppressive heat, with the NBM maintaining its usual "cool" bias
when compared to actual observations the last several days. Have
bumped up max temps 1-2 degrees over much of the region through
Tuesday, with strong insolation/reduced convection likely
resulting in more triple digit heat over the new few days. NBM
dewpoints also remain abnormally high, with the short term progs
suggesting some slightly drier sfc air backdooring SW into Srn AR
Monday and over more of the area Tuesday as the weak low level
ridging in place over the Sabine Valley today is replaced by more
noticeable sfc ridging bridging SW into the area tonight through
the next couple of days. Thus, resultant heat indices should
remain well within Heat Advisory criteria today and Monday,
although some isolated areas over portions of SW AR/N LA may brief
reach warning criteria as has been the case the last couple of
days. Have maintained the Heat Advisory as is areawide through
this evening, with the expectation that heat headlines will
continue to be pushed out daily through midweek.

Isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection should remain
possible generally along/S of the I-20 corridor Monday afternoon
ahead of the slightly drier low level air backdooring SW, with the
convection mostly confined across the Srn zones Tuesday afternoon.
However, a change in the synoptic pattern remains in the offing for
mid and late week as the upper ridging retreats back to the W over
the Four Corners Region and much of the Rockies, allowing for weak
troughing to slide SE through the Ozarks Wednesday and into our region
Wednesday night/Thursday. Thus, the potential for increased cloud cover
and more scattered convection is in the offing through Friday, which
should help to taper max temps back closer to the daily norms while
providing the potential for needed rainfall. Depending how quickly the
Four Corners upper ridging or the extent of troughing can develop over
the Great Lakes region/Midwest by late week/next weekend, the potential
may remain for mainly diurnal convection even into the first half of
next weekend across portions of Lower E TX/N LA.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast
period ending 18/06Z. With a surface high centered over the
ArkLaTex, winds will remain 5 knots or less through the period.
Otherwise, any convection that may develop this afternoon will be
too isolated to mention in terminals at this time. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  77 101  78 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  99  75 100  75 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  99  72  99  72 /  20   0  10   0
TXK 102  77 102  76 /  20   0  10   0
ELD  99  73  99  74 /  20   0  20   0
TYR  97  76  97  76 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  99  76 100  75 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  99  75  98  74 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05