142
FXUS64 KSHV 040253
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
953 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

 - Scattered showers and storms will push east across the
   ArkLaTex through the day today and Friday. Severe weather is
   not expected.

 - Heat will increase this weekend and into next week, with heat
   indices possibly reaching the triple digits, posing a potential
   hazard for extended outdoor activity.

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will resume Sunday and continue
   into next week, particularly east of the I-49 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper-level ridging is still in place over the region, with some
showers and thunderstorms currently riding along the flow. These
showers will continue to move to the southeast through the
afternoon and diminish later in the evening. Even though flooding
hasn`t been a concern as of late, the region included in these
storms have been highlighted under a Marginal Risk of flash
flooding in the latest D1 ERO. We will be monitoring rainfall
rates and rivers for any changes in flooding.

A similar progression of events is expected tomorrow, with far
less certainty on both coverage and timing. Rain will generally
begin in the northwest around daybreak and move southeast across
the center of the region. The uncertainty comes in the location of
our usual diurnal convection. Some recent near-term guidance is
having the overarching high pressure prevail and keeping these
pop-ups from , while others are showing much more activity.
Despite the uncertainty, collaboration with neighboring offices
and knowing many outdoor activities will be ongoing, I`ve
increased PoPs regionwide for tomorrow afternoon. Activity should
gradually diminish after nightfall enough for most fireworks
displays to continue.

Rain chances seem to diminish going into the weekend, hopefully
allowing continued holiday celebrations to be unaffected.
Apparent temperatures will still be boarding triple digits thanks
to the resident high pressure and increased humidity. These
temperatures will stick around into the long term period next
week.

The afternoon showers will make a return beginning on Monday,
particularly in areas east of I-49 as the high over the Desert
Southwest expands its influence eastward. Along with the typical
afternoon convection, high temperatures look to be returning to
the upper 90s. Long-range guidance has trended warm on
temperatures in the long term period, so hopefully these
estimations come down enough to avoid needing to issue any heat
products. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the 04/00z TAF period...Afternoon/Evening convection will
continue to diminish over the next several hours, leaving us with
VFR conditions and left over mid/high clouds. The cloud cover will
hang around overnight with some low clouds developing across East
Texas and NW LA near daybreak. Can`t rule out some patchy fog in
locations that received rainfall today, but the fog and low clouds
should lift by mid morning. Precipitation will be a tough call
tomorrow, but models have some light rain developing across East
Texas and NW Louisiana just after daybreak, with isolated
convection possible areawide during the afternoon. Brief heavy
rainfall and high winds will be possible near thunderstorms. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  93  76  96 /  20  30  10  10
MLU  75  95  74  97 /  20  30   0  10
DEQ  71  89  71  93 /  20  30   0  10
TXK  74  93  75  96 /  30  30   0  10
ELD  72  94  73  96 /  20  30   0  10
TYR  75  89  73  93 /  30  30  10  10
GGG  75  89  73  94 /  30  40  10  10
LFK  76  89  73  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20