674
FXUS64 KSHV 150050
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
750 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms remain possible through
   Wednesday evening with some lower chances across east Texas on
   Thursday.

 - Dry and warmer conditions will return on Thursday and continue
   into the weekend, with some heat related concerns expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Radar imagery is starting to show some isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing this afternoon across the northern half
of the forecast area, thanks to an upper level low that is
retrograding westward. Expecting this activity to increase some
in coverage, but models have really backed off on how much
increase to coverage we will see. Nonetheless, after seeing how
some of the short range models are initializing and seeing what is
on radar, I am not putting much faith in the guidance. The good
news is, these storms today seem to be more progressive, which
hopefully will limit the flash flooding potential. We will have
one more day tomorrow of the potential for widespread convection
across the region. On Thursday, chances will be limited to our
east Texas areas and then things really dry up for the rest of the
week, into the weekend and the start of next week.

After some relief early this week from the oppressive heat,
temperatures will return to the 90s for the majority of the region
by Thursday and then increase each day into the weekend, returning
to the middle and upper 90s by Sunday, and potentially even warmer
as we move into next week. As such, we will need to watch for the
potential of heat related headlines to be issued as we move into
next week, although we have seen something similar to this, where
we were cool and rainy for the start of the week, guidance
suggested that we would need products heading into the weekend,
and as it got closer they remembered that the soils are super
moist, grass is really green, and then we are borderline for
headlines. One thing I am more confident about, rain chances will
decrease as we head through the week and temperatures will
increase. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the 15/00z TAF period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites at
this hour. We should see these conditions prevail through the
evening before some low cigs move into KTXK/KELD, and possibly
KMLU overnight. Can`t rule out and isolated shower or thunderstorm
in those areas overnight through the morning hours as well.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region,
particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  88  72  91 /  10  40  10   0
MLU  72  90  72  93 /  20  50  20   0
DEQ  70  86  68  89 /  30  70  30  10
TXK  72  88  71  91 /  20  60  20   0
ELD  70  86  69  91 /  30  60  10   0
TYR  71  89  72  91 /  20  50  10  10
GGG  70  89  71  91 /  20  50  10  10
LFK  69  88  71  91 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...20