259
FXUS64 KSHV 232343
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Expanding wrap-around cloud cover around TS Bertha will
   maintain slightly cooler conditions over much of the region
   this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered showers and a
   few storms possible.

 - The extreme heat will begin to build by this weekend and
   especially for much of next week, with Heat
   Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings possible.

 - No immediate relief to the heat or dry conditions is expected
   for the foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

TS Bertha has made its final landfall as of late morning near the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish border in SW LA, with the early afternoon
visible satellite imagery indicating the low level center quickly
traversing WNW into the Lower Sabine Valley just N of Sabine Pass,
and eventually to near/just N of BPT in SE TX. Extensive wrap-
around cigs continue to spread WNW into E TX/Srn AR as of early
afternoon, which along with the increased pressure gradient, have
both tempered the temp rise over much of the region. Widely scattered
-SHRA have developed across much of N LA along the attendant
H925-850 inverted trough axis that extends NE from Bertha`s
center, which will persist through early evening before
diminishing. Have maintained slight chance pops from Deep E TX
across N LA/SCntrl AR through mid-evening before returning to a
dry forecast overnight, as the flow regime transitions back to a
more Srly direction late as the remnant low center shifts farther
W into S TX. Thus, the extensive cigs may thin to some extent
this evening, but redevelop/lower overnight given the deepening
and higher theta-e air mass which has begun to spread back W into
Srn AR/E TX and thus replacing the drier/"more comfortable" air
that had backdoored SW last night/early this morning. Still have
yet to meet Heat Advisory criteria across areas along/S of I-20
in E TX as of 19Z, with criteria likely to be isolated/marginal
at best through the remainder of the afternoon, but will allow
the Advisory to ride for now but may cancel this later this
afternoon pending how temps are impacted by the increasing Wwd
moving cigs.

Flat sfc/upper ridging will become centered over the Cntrl Gulf
coast area Friday, with hotter temps returning to the area as the
low cigs gradually lift and scatter out through the day. As of
now, conditions looks to be too marginal for a Heat Advisory for
any part of the region, and thus have held off with this forecast
package. However, the various hi-res progs and ensembles
suggest the potential for very isolated mainly afternoon
convection over portions of E TX/N LA/Srn AR in the newly returned
Srly flow regime. Have added slight chance pops for these areas
given the higher PW air that will be in place, but this will be
the last of the pops through the remainder of the forecast period
as the heat begins to reassert itself back over the region this
weekend through much if not all of next week. This will be despite
a weakness in the flow that will traverse S around the Ern
periphery of the building Cntrl Plains ridge that will primarily
bring some increase in elevated cigs to portions of Srn AR/N LA
Saturday, but keeping any convection farther NNE into Cntrl/Nrn AR
and the Mid-South region. Did bump up max temps over the NBM
slightly Saturday afternoon over E TX/NW LA given the thinning
elevated cigs and increased subsidence, before a thinning
moisture profile results in stronger insolation and the return to
near triple digit temps to portions of the area Sunday afternoon.
While heat indices will near or exceed criteria for much of the
region Saturday, Sunday should be more of a slam dunk for heat
products areawide.

Triple digit temps should expand over much of the region Monday
through the remainder of the new work week, as the upper ridge
expands farther SE into the Lower MS Valley. Very little relief is
expected each night with min temps nearing or only falling below
80 degrees only briefly, resulting in the return to more dire and
dangerous heat through the remainder of the forecast period. The
various ensembles suggest that the upper ridging/heat dome in
place will linger through much of next week, before possibly
retreating slightly W by next weekend, allowing for weaknesses
aloft to slide S and potentially focus some convection for
portions of the area by this time.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For the 24/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some light to
moderate rain showers moving across portions of Louisiana and deep
east Texas. The only terminals we are currently seeing impacts is
KLFK and KMLU where light rain has been reported. There is some
potential that a shower could arrive at KSHV, so I left mention
of VCSH. These showers should gradually wind down as we head into
the overnight hours. There is some potential for some lower
ceilings during the overnight hours that could bring some MVFR
flight conditions. Otherwise, gusty winds will be possible during
the early afternoon hours, but confidence was not enough to
include for anyone but KGGG and KTYR. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
MLU  76  96  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
DEQ  75  92  75  95 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  77  97  78  99 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  75  94  76  95 /  20  20  10   0
TYR  78  95  77  98 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  77  95  76  98 /  10  10  10   0
LFK  77  95  75  97 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124-125-136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33