093
FXUS64 KSHV 291751
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

 - More enhanced sea breeze convection this afternoon may linger
   into this evening across our southern and eastern zones.

 - Weak cool front arrives across northern zones on Tuesday before
   the upper-level ridge becomes more dominant later in the week,
   and heat advisories may eventually return.

 - Saharan dust shifting westward across the tropics toward the
   Gulf coast may reach into our southern zones during this week,
   but impacts to visibility should be minimal if any at all.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A more energized sea breeze is evident early this afternoon as
regional radar imagery indicates scattered convection lifting
northward from the coast. Although not directly impacting our
region, associated moisture advection from Tropical Depression
Two near the Yucatan is likely aiding in more active convection
along the coast and the increased sea breeze north so far today.
For this reason, did maintain low-end rain chances through early
this evening across our southern and eastern zones to account for
some of this convection lingering beyond sunset. Otherwise, look
for another warm and muggy night with low temperatures ranging
through the 70s.

Looking ahead to the new work week, the upper-level ridge will
begin to reassert its presence across the region with rain chances
looking to be much more limited on Monday as TD Two moves farther
inland over east central Mexico. High temperatures will generally
maintain a range of lower to mid 90s with heat indices peaking out
between 100-105 degrees once again as we hover ever so close to
heat advisory criteria. By Monday night into Tuesday, a weak cool
front will push south from the Ozarks toward our northern zones
with increasing showers and thunderstorms along the boundary.
Thus, have trended PoPs accordingly with higher chances across
our northern and eastern zones through the mid-week timeframe.

Beyond Wednesday, it appears the upper-level ridge will become
even more influential and largely dominate the weather pattern
across our region. Therefore, rain chances really begin to dwindle
and temperatures will likely begin to nudge a bit higher into the
mid and upper 90s range from late week through next weekend. This
warming trend may bring a return of heat advisory headlines for
at least some portions of the region for the July 4th holiday
weekend.

Lastly, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) moving westward through the
tropics still appears on track on bring at least some limited
Saharan dust to parts of the Gulf coast through this upcoming
week. Impacts to our region should not be overly impressive, but
it could present some concerns for those with allergy/respiratory
issues. Otherwise, it may produce some vivid images near sunrise
and sunset times.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Scattered cu are currently expanding over the region at around
3000 ft. Some more diurnal convection is expected this afternoon
and evening. VCTS are included in areas with the greatest
confidence of regional thunder, but could include other areas
depending on the strength of the sea breeze. Showers will end this
evening and leave light west/southwesterly winds overnight. There
may be some brief fog around KLFK tomorrow morning that will mix
out after a few hours. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Expect more diurnal convection this afternoon across our southern
and eastern zones. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe
but could be capable of producing some gusty winds. While reports
are always appreciated, spotter activation is not expected to be
needed today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  78  96 /  20  10  10  30
MLU  75  95  76  95 /  20  20  20  50
DEQ  73  93  72  91 /   0  20  30  30
TXK  77  97  76  95 /  10  10  20  30
ELD  74  94  74  92 /  20  20  30  40
TYR  75  94  76  95 /  10  10   0  20
GGG  75  93  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  74  94  74  95 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57