938
FXUS64 KSHV 052013
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
313 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Cold front is currently bisecting the region, roughly extending
along a line from near Farmerville to Coushatta, LA southwestward
to near Lufkin, TX. Tornado Watch 122 remains in effect generally
along and SE of these locations while many areas farther north and
west of the boundary continue to observe some stronger convection
capable of gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours. Localized
flash flooding is perhaps the greater concern in these areas due
to training of thunderstorms, but fortunately the majority of the
heavier rain at this point is falling in areas along and south of
I-20 where very little rainfall occurred earlier this week.

Farther north of I-20, light to moderate showers and embedded
thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rain continue across much of
SW AR westward into parts of NE TX where the Flood Watch remains
in effect. With the delayed ejection of the upper-level trough and
additional rainfall expected this evening and overnight across
areas in the Flood Watch, opted not to trim back any of the Watch
at this time. As for the remainder of the Tornado Watch, warm
sector air continues to feed northward ahead of the boundary so
it`s possible the Watch may run its course through the current 7PM
expiration across our far SE zones. Otherwise, expect more of it
to be trimmed back over the next few hours with additional slow SE
progression of the cold front.

As the upper-trough continues to slowly eject eastward overnight
into early Sunday, look for additional light rain to be possible
with low wrap-around cloud cover. This may extend through much of
the day on Sunday, especially across our northern and eastern
zones. Otherwise, the main theme for Sunday will be the much
cooler temperatures filtering in behind the cold front with breezy
NW winds making it feel even colder. Evening and overnight temps
will drop off steadily into the mid 30s to mid 40s for low by
Monday morning as clouds may finally begin to erode across our NW
zones toward daybreak.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The remainder of the forecast through the long-term period next
week will be quite pleasant for early to mid April as temperatures
gradually moderate throughout the week. Although we should remain
below average for Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will climb
back into the 70s areawide for Wednesday as southerly winds return
in the wake of advancing sfc high pressure.

By Thursday, look for mid 70s to lower 80s as southerly flow is
reinforced ahead of the next cold front which should arrive on
Friday. For now, it doesn`t appear that much if any rainfall will
accompany this front so have maintained a dry forecast through
the end of next week. However, future forecasts may dictate at
least some low-end rain chances with this front depending on the
degree of moisture recovery ahead of the front.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Terminals will be mostly IFR conditions, with a few periods in
both MVFR and LIFR depending on the intensity of rainfall.
Fortunately, the line of storms has been moving eastward faster
than expected so far. This line will continue eastward and clear
all terminals of rain by the end of the TAF period. Persistant
moisture from the rainfall and the gusty southerly flow for the
past several days may present itself with some lingering mist
creating lower visibilities overnight into tomorrow morning.
Ceilings will also stay low through the period behind the rain.
But winds should shift northerly and begin to weaken behind the
rain as well.

/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and this evening
across East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  59  45  63 /  60  20  10   0
MLU  56  62  46  62 / 100  20  10   0
DEQ  45  52  35  64 /  60  20   0   0
TXK  50  56  42  64 /  60  20   0   0
ELD  49  58  41  63 /  90  30  10   0
TYR  45  53  39  63 /  30  20   0   0
GGG  46  54  40  63 /  40  20  10   0
LFK  48  58  42  64 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...57