457
FXUS64 KSHV 042314
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and higher humidity can be expected
   this weekend through all of next week.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms appear to
   increase though Sunday afternoon through Tuesday across the
   region. However, rainfall amounts appear to be light and won`t
   alleviate the increasing dryness that has developed over much
   of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

As expected, a scattered cu field has developed areawide early
this afternoon across the region, as a result of a tongue of low
level moisture that has advected WNW from the Lower MS Valley. The
visible satellite imagery continues to depict an upper low
spinning off the coast of SE LA, with an attendant sfc low
analyzed via buoy data farther to the SW over the WCntrl Gulf. The
short term progs remain in agreement with the center of this low
drifting a bit farther W tonight, with a NW drift expected with
the sfc low through Sunday as it begins to open up into an
inverted trough as it nears the SE TX coast. Thus, a deeper slug
of low level moisture will begin to increase from SE to NW Sunday
across N LA, and portions of Srn AR/Deep E TX, characteristic of
PW`s of 1.5-1.7+ inches. As a result, the potential for at least
isolated convection will be possible Sunday afternoon over these
areas, with the greater coverage remaining to our S over S LA. If
anything, the increasing cigs will help to cap temps in the mid to
upper 80s Sunday afternoon, but may cool a bit especially later in
the afternoon over much of N LA. Still believe the NBM is too
scarce with pops, and thus have maintained persistence with slight
chance pops extending farther NW into portions of Deep E TX into
NW LA/SCntrl AR. While this should mostly diminish during the
evening, the opening H850 trough will lift N across the area
Monday, and should focus more in the way of scattered convection
through the day especially across N LA/Srn AR. This convection
doesn`t appear to be very deep though, given the extent of dry mid
level air that will spread N with this low level trough passage.
However, cigs will keep max temps below 90 and coolest along/N of
the I-20 corridor, before the trough lifts N out of the area
Monday night.

Adequate low level moisture should persist across the region
Tuesday as the remnants of this weakness aloft continue to
diminish, with flat ridging beginning to build back in from the
Big Bend region of SW TX N and across the Lone Star state before
eventually expanding farther E into the Lower MS Valley. Thus, any
pops Tuesday will become more isolated, with the heat increasing
a touch once again as the ensembles suggest that the ridge aloft
will begin to amplify N across the remainder of the Srn and into
the Cntrl Plains by late week, which could persist through at
least mid-month. This synoptic pattern would help to maintain the
above normal temps in place, as well as the very dry conditions
that have been observed over the last 10+ days.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

High pressure to the east to maintain east to northeast winds
around 5 knots overnight, increasing to up to 8 knots on
Sunday. Otherwise, a weak disturbance in the gulf could allow for
VCTS conditions across MLU/ELD after 05/19Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  89  71  86 /   0  20  10  30
MLU  65  87  71  86 /   0  20  20  40
DEQ  58  87  66  83 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  63  89  68  85 /   0  10  10  30
ELD  60  86  68  83 /   0  20  20  40
TYR  65  89  68  86 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  63  88  68  86 /   0  10  10  20
LFK  65  88  69  89 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05