167
FXUS64 KSHV 152337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely across
   the ArkLaTex today.

 - Transition from troughing to ridging aloft leads to decreasing rain
   chances and increasing heat from Thursday into the weekend.

 - Further ridging amplification overhead into the start of next
   week brings chances for triple digit heat across the ArkLaTex
   to rise. Heat products could be issued as confidence is further
   nailed down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the Four State Region sandwiched
between two upper-level lows. One retrograding northwestward across
the AR/TN border has and is continuing to bring showers and
thunderstorms in our area in SW AR, while the low over S-Central
Texas has developed rainbands that have been trekking NNE across
portions of C/SE TX.

Recent Hi-Res model trends have continued to project confidence in
further development of these scattered showers and thunderstorms in
East and Southeast Texas that could linger around long enough to
trek through our region this afternoon into the evening hours.
Elected to slightly increase PoPs to reflect this. Overnight, lack
of diurnal heating will cut off the needed thermals for these
showers to support themselves and we should see them dissipate
like yesterday. QPFs associated with this system are expected to
remain under an inch, however locally heavier downpours could
result in areas receiving amounts greater than that, that could
lead to some flash flooding concerns. Lows tonight will range
from upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The upper level pattern starts to move into a transitional state on
Thursday, with isolated to scattered afternoon shwrs & tstorms
possible as lift associated with the retrograding low is still
dominant. By the end of Friday night into Saturday subsidence aloft
from a ridge building in from the Northern Gulf will decrease
chances of any precip and warm us up into the mid 90s. Lows during
this period will rise into the low to mid 70s

Over the weekend, and especially into at least this time next week,
this ridge will further cement itself and amplify over the South
Central US, with the ridge axis extending from the NM/OK border into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to this extended period of time
under this ridge (heat dome), temperatures could rise past the upper
90s into the triple digits. Current long-range forecasts have the
ArkLaTex into Heat Advisory criteria as we enter the workweek,
however any products will be issued later on as heat indices will
depend on how much our dewpoints are mixed out or not by subsidence
from the ridge. Overnight lows to remain in the mid 70s.

Ozimek/Thorne

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the 16/00z TAF period...VFR conditions have settled in across
the TAF sites. However, some scattered convection still remains
across portions of the region, and could affect KMLU/KELD over the
next couple of hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for a large
portion of the evening and overnight period, with mid and high
clouds. Some low cigs may move into our East Texas zones, and
possibly KSHV, towards the end of the TAF period, but those cigs
should lift by mid-morning tomorrow. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region,
particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  75  93 /  30  10  10  20
MLU  72  94  75  95 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  68  89  70  90 /  40  10  10  10
TXK  72  92  73  94 /  40  10  10  20
ELD  70  91  72  94 /  40  10   0   0
TYR  72  91  74  92 /  30  20  10  20
GGG  72  91  73  93 /  30  20  10  30
LFK  71  91  73  93 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...20