106
FXUS64 KSHV 240034
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
734 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

 - Very isolated showers will be possible across southern portions
   of deep east Texas this afternoon and evening, dissipating
   quickly

 - This weekend will otherwise remain mostly dry, while
   temperatures warm back into the middle to upper 90s

 - Next week is shaping up to be more unsettled, with daily
   showers and storms beginning late Monday into Tuesday, as well
   as below average high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A weak 700mb trough is responsible for increasing cloud cover over
the heart of the ArkLaTex by this midday hour. Widespread showers
and storms are not anticipated, but a few short range high res
models suggest very isolated light showers will be possible across
east Texas, largely south of the I-20 corridor. Anything that does
develop will most likely dissipate equally quickly, diminishing
completely after sunset.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s
northeast and lower 70s southwest. Sunday looks to be be another
warm, dry and quiet one, as temperatures aim for the mid to upper
90s, and this warm trend potentially continuing into early next week
for the southern half of the region. The hint of relief will be that
the drier airmass in the wake of the frontal passage should keep
humidity in check, and it is not looking like it should be necessary
to issue any heat products.

Long range guidance continues to depict the next significant upper
level system advancing southward on northwest flow early in the week
swinging another front into the ArkLaTex. As of this writing, only
our southeast Oklahoma zones look to expect much, if any, storms on
Monday, with the more substantial push arriving overnight and
continuing into the day Tuesday. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook
continues to highlight northern portions of the ArkLaTex for the
possibility of flash flooding on Tuesday. Rainfall chances trend
down Wednesday then pick up again Thursday as the next northwest
flow system sweeps into the area. Aside from short-lived breaks in
the weather, rainfall chances continue for much of the week ahead.
This will moderate temperatures considerably, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, making for a cooler-than-average last week
of August for the Four State Region.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the 24/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with a typical diurnal cycle of cumulus fields and brief,
isolated chances of -SHRA/VCTS. Surface winds will pick up from
the northwest from 24/18Z through the end of the period. /16/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  97  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  69  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  94  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  73  97  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  68  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  72  96  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  71  96  71  96 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16