494
FXUS64 KSHV 121114
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Dew point temperatures are quickly climbing this morning as mid and
upper 50`s extend as far north of the I-20 corridor. At the same
time temperatures are sitting almost 10 deg F warmer when compared
to this time yesterday. All of this sits in advance of a vigorous
shortwave upper trough working across western Mexico this morning.
This afternoon, surface cyclogenesis will materialize across the
Texas panhandle, with a cold front and dry line feature draped
south across central Texas. Upper forcing will begin to interact
with the surface features late this afternoon, into the early
evening, potentially allowing for thunderstorm initiation across a
Slight Risk region highlighted by the SPC along the I-30 corridor,
down to NW Louisiana and the I-20 corridor in east Texas.

Along and ahead of the aforementioned features, model guidance
advertises supportive shear and instability parameters. With cooling
aloft, steep lapse rates will prevail within this region. Though
surface based thunderstorms are conditional, elevated convective
probabilities remain greatest, citing the threat for large hail
and damaging wind associated with mature thunderstorm development.
Even with some increasing confidence from the hi-res CAMs, the
notable warming within the low and mid-levels seen in model based
soundings suggests that a cap will be in place through the
afternoon, with gradual erosion suggested as the forcing
approaches. How stubborn the cap is will dictate convective
coverage later today and something worth monitoring via afternoon
mesoanalysis.

If convection can initiate this afternoon, it will move eastward,
working into portions of SW Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Based
on the overnight guidance, downstream environmental parameters do
not appear to be as conducive, so convective maintenance appears
limited as thunderstorm structure looks to fall apart the further
east they travel, especially closer to midnight. The base of the
shortwave will move across Texas and Louisiana overnight and into
Thursday AM. The aforementioned surface low will begin to fall apart
as local heights rise through Thursday afternoon. As a result,
and similar to this afternoon, temperatures will be warm, with
80`s expected for many communities. It is possible that the
current maxT forecast for Thursday is conservative, citing calmer
winds, and drier dew points. Regardless, above average
temperatures will prevail through the short-term period.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

By Friday AM, height falls aloft will be underway as a deepening
surface low across the Rockies is supported by advanced troughing
across the Four Corners Region. By sunrise, a cold front will be
quickly racing east, catching up to a developing dry line feature
across the DFW metro, with both pushing east through the
afternoon. Given the timing and delayed arrival of supportive
forcing aloft, thunderstorm initiation within the highlighted
Marginal and Slight risk zones appears to be late in the forecast
period, if at all. That being said, the region highlighted within
the SPC D3 outlook will provide the ingredients for strong to
severe thunderstorms to materialize as a secondary shortwave push
at 500mb works across Texas early Saturday AM. It is possible that
thunderstorm initiation occurs across the extreme east and
southeast zones of FA before quickly exiting east into Mississippi
for Saturday afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible if thunderstorms do materialize across our forecast
zones, but for now, and with the latest global guidance coming in
this morning, the window for a local severe threat will be short.

Behind the front, and with a reinforcing shot of cooler air behind
the secondary push Sat AM, temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be
cooler when compared to how we will finish the work week. 80`s on
Friday will give way to highs in the 70`s Saturday and 60`s on
Sunday. The remainder of the long term period will be benign as
dry weather looks to prevail given advanced ridging across the
CONUS. Temperatures will respond accordingly as we warm back
through the 70`s and into the low 80`s early next week.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

For the 12/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery and surface
observations are showing some lower clouds starting to filter into
our southern zones, currently impacting KLFK, KGGG, and KSHV where
FEW to BKN clouds around 1500 feet are being observed. Expecting
borderline VFR to MVFR CIGs to then continue through at least
12/18z. There is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms to
move through the northern half of our forecast area this afternoon
and evening. Confidence was not very high that we would see any
widespread impact to our terminals. I think the best chance would
be for KTXK, but this will be after 13/02z so I have left any
mention out and this time and will allow for some adjustments to
this in later updates with updated model runs. Winds are starting
to get breezy this morning already and will continue to do so
through at least 12/20z before some weaking is seen. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 0430 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Spotter activation will be likely needed later this afternoon, into
the evening as strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
across portions of northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Arkansas and some of northwest Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  60  84  59 /  20  40   0   0
MLU  80  61  82  58 /   0  30   0   0
DEQ  79  52  79  54 /  20  40   0   0
TXK  82  58  84  59 /  20  50   0   0
ELD  80  57  82  56 /  10  50   0   0
TYR  82  55  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
GGG  81  55  84  58 /  20  30   0   0
LFK  82  58  84  58 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...33