162
FXUS64 KSHV 250603
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
103 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- A round of thunderstorms with the capability of producing heavy
  rain is becoming more likely to form across parts of southern
  Arkansas early Saturday morning into the afternoon.

- Temperature maximums will continue to increase above normal
  (into the upper 90s) through the end of the weekend.

- Hazardous heat returns through the work week with elevated
  potentials of temperature maximums in the lower 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A stationary front continues to linger across southern Arkansas
with attendant upper troughing impinging upon the long-standing
ridge axis across the southern Great Plains. As it does so, the
window opens for some convective activity as high-resolution
guidance suggests a round of development in the pre-dawn hours of
Saturday morning. Flash flooding remains a concern due to PWAT
values near 2 inches (at the 90th percentile of climatology)
boosting rainfall efficiency while weak steering flow aloft
promotes some backbuilding of the thunderstorms that end up
forming. All southern Arkansas counties (going into the Ark-La-
Miss) are at some risk of heavy rains (2-3 inches) through
Saturday with any convection that can establish itself in a very
moist atmosphere.

Medium-range guidance boosts the strength of the aforementioned
ridge aloft by Sunday, allowing for light southerly surface flow
(less relief from Gulf moisture) and weak northerly flow aloft
(displacing more shortwaves and upstream convection). Temperature
maximums at or over 100 degrees F are still more likely once again
by next week with a 60% to 80% probability of occurrence next
Monday through Wednesday. Long-range guidance suggests some "light
at the end of the tunnel" with ridging finally starting to break
down by the end of next week and the end of the month. A return to
normal summertime heat (mid-90s) is likely as a result by this
time with a coinciding increase in the potential for productive
rounds of convection to form in the afternoon with daytime
heating. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace but we are
seeing increasing mid cloud cover spill down out of the Ouachita
of SE OK and SW AR attm. This cloud cover is in advance of an
upper level disturbance that could initiate convection overnight
in the vicinity of mainly the ELD terminal. Given the latest high
res solutions picking up on this fact, have introduced VCTS at
09z and continuing through at least the morning hours with TEMPO
groups at the ELD terminal only thru the mid morning hours for
lower VSBY and ceilings. Also added VCTS to the MLU terminal from
mid morning thru early afternoon. Elsewhere, cannot rule out TEMPO
MVFR ceilings closer to sunrise through mid morning at the
LFK/TYR and GGG terminals mainly. Outside of convection possibly
impacting the ELD and MLU terminals today, look for VFR conditions
to return to most all terminals by late morning, continuing
through the TAF period.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Arkansas spotters should be prepared to relay any reports of
flash flooding through Saturday. Any reports of hazardous weather
to the National Weather Service are appreciated. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  78  97  78 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  95  77  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  94  74  98  74 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  97  78 100  78 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  92  75  97  76 /  40  10   0   0
TYR  97  77  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  96  77  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  95  74  96  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13