879
FXUS64 KSHV 261842
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
142 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.

- Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for the next several
  days. But chances will increase through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over much of the
Southeast CONUS, so conditions will be similar to that of previous
days. Apparent temps are not projected to get high enough to
warrant an advisory to be issued today even though some places
will be on the cool side of criteria. Any diurnal convection that
develops this afternoon will likely dissipate in the first few
hours of the period, as has been the case with storms the past few
days. Temperatures will stay in the 70s as with partly cloudy
skies across the region.

Friday will have some more focused diurnal convection in our
northwest and southeastern zones thanks to the co-location of
upper-level forcing and mid-level moisture. To the northwest, an
upper-level shear axis in the southern Great Plains could assist
anything that initiates in the increased area of moisture. The
southeast will likely have a similar moisture profile with some
support from a retrograding inverted trough.

As the weekend approaches, the upper-level ridge that is in place
will try to retrograde and move to the west. This will allow for
more of the same heat and afternoon thunderstorm development
across the Four State Region. Monday could be the start of some
more widespread rain chances as the area of lift from the moving
upper-level ridge settles over the region. I have carried the
higher PoPs from the NBM from Monday through Thursday of next
week, but the coverage may change based on the actual movement of
the ridge. More widespread rain could help bring temperatures down
a touch, but not enough for it to be considered a relief from the
persistant heat. This component of the forecast will be up in the
air until there is more of a consensus on the ridge`s movement
next week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the 26/18Z TAF period, cu field has lifted to VFR status early
this afternoon across our airspace with some spotty convection
beginning to pop up near KLFK. This trend should continue through
the remainder of the afternoon across Deep East TX into parts of
NCntrl LA and SCntrl AR so have included VCTS at KELD/KMLU/KLFK.
Any lingering convection should diminish by 27/00Z or shortly
thereafter with some convective debris cirrus clouds this evening
before diminishing. Any returning low stratus on Friday morning
should be confined to KTYR and possibly KLFK while the remaining
terminals are expected to maintain VFR conditions. Light southerly
winds between 3-6 kts on average will prevail through the period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  96  77 /  20  20   0   0
MLU  95  74  95  76 /  30  20  10   0
DEQ  92  71  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  95  75  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  94  72  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  91  73  92  74 /  20  20  10   0
GGG  92  73  92  74 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  92  72  93  73 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19