543
FXUS64 KSHV 070318
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1018 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

As of 1000 PM CDT, temperatures remain in the upper 70s as anvils
from the tops of severe thunderstorms in West Texas continue to
blow off across North Texas into portions of our area. Temperature
minimums will not change much overnight, remaining mild and in
the mid-to-upper 70s once again. With weather and observed trends
continuing as anticipated, additional forecast and hazard grid
adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Widespread convection earlier across the Middle Red River Valley
of SE OK and SW AR has finally dissipated into widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms along residual outflow boundaries now
across extreme NE TX into N LA north of the I-20 Corridor. This
activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating and
then we turn our attention once again upstream for nocturnal
thunderstorm development once again Central and Eastern OK late
tonight. Latest HRRR and some CAM output suggests we could be
looking at a repeat scenario late tonight with convection knocking
on our far northwest door near or shortly after sunrise Saturday
Morning. Have followed this line of thinking with nearly zonal
flow across the Upper Red River Valley with a disturbance embedded
in this flow that is forecast to be just upstream of our region
by 12z Sat. If this scenario pans out, we could be looking at
similar conditions Saturday Morning with a strong remnant MCS
across our northern most zones with this feature forecast to
weaken during the afternoon. As a result, limited pops to mainly
north of the I-20 Corridor for the daytime hours Saturday but all
bets are off as we transition into Saturday Night.

Upper ridging retrogrades westward Saturday Night into Sunday and
this opens the door to more of a weak, longwave disturbance that
will spill down out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Miss
Valley. Most deterministic progs are focusing on this scenario but
without much consistency as to just where areas of strong to
severe weather will occur. For now, the most likely area for
strong to severe thunderstorms will be near and north of the I-20
Corridor of NE TX and N LA, beginning as early as Sat Evng but
especially overnight Sat Night with a weakening remnant MCS
dissipating across our region during the day Sunday. This follows
SPC`s DayTwo Convective Outlook with hail and damaging winds the
most immediate threat but as we saw this morning in Eastern
Oklahoma, we certainly cannot rule out isolated tornado potential
along the leading edge of any intense line of convection across
our region Saturday Evening but especially Saturday Night through
the predawn hours Sunday.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Unfortunately, the parade of upper level disturbances poised to
impact our weather with northwest flow only intensifies as we
transition into Sunday Night and early next week as well. Progs
are in good agreement with yet another area of forcing moving
into our region from the northwest beginning Sunday Evening and
continuing through our entire region Sunday Night. This shortwave
appears to be much more intense than the one Saturday Night/early
Sunday and airmass recovery will be key for the Sunday Night
disturbance but needless to say, rain chances will continue high
during this period and as we move into late weekend and into early
next week. Flooding will begin to be a concern as well as the
northern and/or the northwestern half of our region is outlooked
for Slight Risks of Excessive Heavy Rainfall through Monday and
this will likely continue beyond Monday of next week, especially
given the fact that this northwest flow pattern does not appear to
break down until maybe Wednesday of next week.

By midweek next week, upper ridging to our west gets split by a
weakly amplified upper level trough which will open the door for
southwest flow aloft. This flow promises to keep the Gulf open for
plentiful moisture to interact with daytime heating and/or
disturbances moving our way from the Central Tx Hill Country to
generate more in the way of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the forecast period.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the 07/00z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail for
all terminals and will continue to do so through most of this TAF
period. The exception will be for KLFK where we have some MVFR
conditions as a TEMPO from 07/12z-07/14z where some lower CIGs
could settle in during this time. Otherwise, despite some lower
clouds overnight everywhere else will remain VFR. Winds could be
breezy at times around 07/18z with some sustained winds around
15kts and gusts around 20kts possible. This should be short lived
though and quickly begin to weaken heading into the overnight.
/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  96  77  94 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  77  95  75  91 /  20  10  30  50
DEQ  72  90  68  90 /  20  50  60  30
TXK  76  93  72  92 /  20  30  60  30
ELD  73  94  70  90 /  20  20  50  40
TYR  76  92  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
GGG  75  92  74  92 /   0  10  20  20
LFK  75  94  75  96 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33