505
FXUS64 KSHV 230452
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1052 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An upper level shortwave moving from west to east across the Four
State Region later tonight through tomorrow morning will gradually
strengthen an area of low pressure at the surface off the SE TX
and SW LA coast. Synoptic lift from these two features will
promote light rain spreading north through the central portion of
the CWA overnight, although areas of moderate rainfall embedded
rumbles of thunder should bemainly confined south of I-20. This
update subtly increased rain chances along and north of the I-20
corridor later tonight into tomorrow morning, which is closer to
the colder air and potential for lows late tonight near freezing.
That said, the probabilities for any impactful sleet or freezing
rain (not snow) in these areas remains very low at best, so we
will maintain just liquid rain for expected weather. There is one
exception to this - this being in E TX a little south of Tyler
where some recent reports of potential sleet have been showing up.
If this is indeed occurring, it is "Poor Man`s Sleet" arising from
evaporational cooling effects in a layer of dry air above the
surface. No impacts are expected from this in those areas due to
temperatures there being comfortably above freezing.

Otherwise, expect low temperatures tonight ranging from near 30
degrees in far northern zones to a range of 33 to 40 degrees
elsewhere in the region. Locations with temperatures near freezing
later tonight into tomorrow morning should be rising as
precipitation onsets, but we will of course be here all night
monitoring the situation. /50/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Scattered rain showers are present along our southern zones and
will continue through the rest of today. Another upper-level
trough will extend these showers further northward throughout the
night. Overcast skies associated with these showers will likewise
move, keeping the southern half of the area warm overnight. Lows
will only drop to the upper 30s south of the I-20 corridor, while
the uncovered northern half of the region falls just below
freezing.

The northern extent of the rain will reach the I-30 corridor by
daybreak Sunday. With much of the region covered by rain,
afternoon highs will be limited to the high 40s to lower 50s.
Clearer skies in SE OK and portions of SW AR will allow for highs
in the mid to upper 50s. Elevated thunder is possible along our
southern zones, but severe thunderstorm potential is minimal. This
rain is likely to continue through the morning before moving
eastward late Sunday afternoon, bringing dry conditions back to
the area Sunday night. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Upper-level ridging and southerly flow will support a period of
dry conditions and general warming starting on Monday. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the high 60s across the region.
The southerly flow supports the return of a temperature gradient,
with areas south of the LA/AR border reaching the mid to upper 70s
by Wednesday.

Another weak cold front is expected to bring temperatures back to
seasonal averages on Thursday before temperatures bounce back to
the 70s for the end of the work week. After a prolonged period of
rain, enjoy a much needed period of beautiful weather! /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

For the 23/06Z TAFs, the OVC cloud deck continues to advance
north and east across ArkLaTex airspace, on track to overspread
the entire region by by 23/12Z. Showers will likewise progress
from southwest to northeast through the period, with prevailing
SHRA carrying as impacts arrive and continue at area terminals.
This rainfall will continue into the daylight hours before
beginning to recede from west to east during the late afternoon.
This progress will be accompanied by a marked decrease in CIGs,
dropping to IFR into the afternoon and largely remaining low
through the end of this forecast period. Winds will remain light
and variable through the night, becoming more easterly into the
day tomorrow with sustained speeds less than 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  51  36  67 /  40  50   0   0
MLU  37  48  35  63 /  40  60   0   0
DEQ  27  57  31  65 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  32  57  35  67 /  10  30   0   0
ELD  31  53  31  65 /  10  30   0   0
TYR  39  57  37  68 /  30  20   0   0
GGG  38  54  34  68 /  30  30   0   0
LFK  39  52  38  67 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...26