592
FXUS64 KSHV 121140
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
540 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

An active radar this morning as showers and thunderstorms are
present across the Four State Region. A stubborn quasi-stationary
boundary sits just south of the FA as a lead shortwave ejects across
the Southern Plains. This boundary will continue to meander across
the region through the morning hours, gradually lifting northward
into the early afternoon. Similar to yesterday, the bobbing like
nature of the boundary will greatly influence afternoon
temperatures, among other variables such as the longevity of precip
and cloud coverage just to name a few. Much of the hi-res analysis
advertises a SW to NE orientation of the boundary that just barely
reaches the I-20 corridor. It is because of this, along with the
precip delay of diurnal warming, and active cloud coverage, that
afternoon maxT`s will again be on the cooler side for many. Again,
elected to settle with guidance that was cooler when compared to the
NBM. Therefore, a notable spread will be in place this afternoon as
an almost 30 deg F spread will exist from the extreme northern zones
to the southern tier of the FA where the aforementioned boundary
will move just north of these communities.

It is worth mentioning that while the risk remains on the lower end,
given the lifting warm front across the SE zones, a brief period
will exist for conducive severe parameters where a severe
thunderstorm or two may materialize late this afternoon. The window
is brief, but worth mentioning as a D1 Marginal Risk outlines this
corridor of favorable parameters from lower Toledo Bend, NE to
Caldwell Parish. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms embedded within
the morning moderate rainfall will continue.

The active Flood Watch remains in effect until 6 PM CST today where
an additional 1-2 inches may fall. Given the increased moisture
presentation ahead of the upper forcing, and recent increase in
radar rain rate returns across the SW, the Flood Watch has been
expanded SW to include Angelina, Nacogdoches and San Augustine
counties in Texas. Continued convective development will traverse
over already saturated soils across the watch area where flooding
will be a threat through the morning, with additional rainfall
possible through the afternoon as aforementioned redevelopment
across ETX has been advertised in the hi-res guidance this morning.

Behind the passing boundary, cooler temperatures will prevail as
overnight lows into Thursday AM generally sit in the 30`s. Only
exception to this will be the range of mid to upper 20`s along the I-
30 corridor and north, while lows settle near 40 across the
extreme SE parishes. The cooler theme will carry into the Thursday
afternoon highs where many will sit in the mid to upper 40`s,
with the southern zones flirting just above 50 deg F. With the
influence of high pressure in place, dry weather will carry
through Thursday, into early Friday AM.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The long term period will start with gradual moisture return ahead
of a surface low across central Oklahoma. This will interact with a
lifting surface front late Friday night, into Saturday AM, along
with forcing aloft to help initiate a cluster of WAA showers and
thunderstorms late Friday, into early Saturday AM. The potent
upper trough will continue to swing into the Southern Plains, as
progressive forcing expands across the local region. For the last
two days, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a region of
robust instability and conducive severe parameters that will
support the initiation of a few discrete thunderstorms (some may
be severe) ahead of what is looking be a linear storm mode where
straight-line winds will be the main convective threat along a
potent cold front. Given the increasing signal across the
guidance and ML output, the SPC has upped the previous 15% outlook
to 30%, extending from the I-49 corridor east to the MS River.
This will need to be closely monitored in the coming days.

Beyond the D4 period, and into the end of the weekend, the story
turns towards colder temperatures to start next week. Below freezing
temperatures will look to exist south to the I-20 corridor for
Monday, ahead of below normal highs by the afternoon. From there, a
gradual warmup to near normal temperatures looks to be in the cards
through Tuesday ahead of another cool down by the middle of the
week. Deterministic guidance has been hinting at the return of
precip by the end of the period. Given the advertised cooler
temperatures and possible moisture availability, some signal has
emerged for winter precip within the vicinity of the ArkLaTex.
However, it is far too early to go into any detail on local
prospects.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue through the first part of the
period. Scattered rain and thunder may impact terminals over the
next few hours before a more organized line moves through the
region beginning around 12/14z. Lower visibilities will be
associated with these storms until they move out by 12/21z. A
noticeable wind shift will follow the line of storms, with
southerly winds going W and then N by the end of the period. MVFR
ceilings are also expected to return to all terminals after the
storms move out of the area. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Spotter activation may be needed for flooding and storms this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  35  49  37 /  80   0   0   0
MLU  66  39  50  35 / 100  10   0   0
DEQ  49  24  44  27 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  52  30  48  32 /  90   0   0   0
ELD  56  31  49  29 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  56  30  48  37 /  60   0   0   0
GGG  56  31  50  35 /  70   0   0   0
LFK  65  37  53  40 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ071>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ126-138-151>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57