602
FXUS64 KSHV 150500
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - One more day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
   once again on Wednesday.

 - Much less in the way of storm coverage on Thursday as we
   undergo a pattern change aloft.

 - Upper ridding begins to build in across our region on Friday
   and through the upcoming weekend and into much of next week.
   Rainfall chances disappear and near triple digit heat returns
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper ridging continues to dominate the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest with well established easterly flow south
of this dominant ridge across the Lower Miss Valley into the
Southern Plains. Very unusual pattern for our region into the
middle part of July and it will continue, at least for Today and
weakening by we transition into Thursday. An elongated upper level
trough across SE AR into N MS will continue retrograding westward
into the Ouachitas today and will provide the necessary forcing
along with diurnal heating to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. Likewise, another area of upper forcing will exist
from Central Texas into the heart of our region with at least
scattered diurnally driven convection across N LA into NE and Deep
East Texas given the high PWAT in place. Much like tonight, we
should see this Wed Aftn convection dissipating quickly during the
evening hours. On Thursday, there will still be a north to south
oriented shear axis across the western 2/3rds of our region and
this combined with residual moisture will result in isolated to
scattered convection across all but our far northeast zones.

Beyond Thursday, upper ridging will begin to build from the
northern Gulf on Friday and into the heart of our region Saturday
into Sunday. We should be well into the middle 90s for the
upcoming weekend temperature wise. By Monday thru at least
Wednesday of next week, upper ridging should become well anchored
across the Red River Valley of S OK into N TX with that ridge axis
extending south and east into the Lower Miss Valley. With this
kind of pattern, we may begin dealing with temperatures near
triple digits and with those ambient temperatures, depending on
our ability to mix down afternoon dewpoints or not, we may be
dealing with a return to Heat Advisory criteria as well.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the 15/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail to begin the TAF
period with mid and high clouds blanketing much of our airspace. As
we get closer to daybreak, will be watching for some patchy fog and
low stratus development across our South AR terminals and possibly
KMLU invof a stalled frontal bndry along with isolated convection.
Convection is expected to expand once again during the day today as
sfc heating increases and the frontal bndry continues to bisect our
airspace. Therefore, have included VCSH/VCTS at all sites during the
latter half of the TAF period and will likely need to prevail TSRA
eventually in future TAF cycles as confidence in timing increases
with afternoon sea breeze convection encroaching from the south.
Otherwise, look for any low cigs to gradually lift back to VFR by
midday, albeit low VFR in some cases with increasing convection.
Light and variable winds this morning will generally prevail with a
more S/SW component during the day as speeds average around 5-10 kts
with higher gusts invof of convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region,
particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  91  74/  40  20  20  20
MLU  91  72  94  75/  40  20  10  10
DEQ  85  68  89  70/  60  40  20  20
TXK  88  71  92  74/  50  30  20  20
ELD  87  70  91  72/  50  30  10  10
TYR  89  72  91  74/  50  30  30  20
GGG  89  72  91  73/  40  20  20  20
LFK  87  71  91  73/  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13