795
FXUS64 KSHV 102105
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
405 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - A gradual weakening of the upper ridge will continue, making
   way for a trough to drop south with rain chances increasing
   areawide on Friday.

 - Upper ridging will eventually return across the region,
   limiting daily convection to diurnally driven activity mainly
   during peak heating hours by next week. This could bring the
   return of Heat headlines.

 - A cool front could bring a widespread rain chances by the end
   of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Upper ridging will continue to break down across the region this
afternoon into the evening hours. This will allow an upper-level
trough to push southward into the area, bringing us some rain
chances mainly north of I-30. Currently, isolated convection is
popping up across portions of the area with peak heating instability.
There is also a weak disturbance in the northern Gulf that has
pushed some scattered convection northward into Deep East Texas
and adjacent Central Louisiana. Some locations are seeing the
temperature effects of the rain and cloud cover, but many areas
have still climbed into the upper 90s this afternoon. Most of this
convection should diminish with the loss of daytime heating,
except for locations along and north of I-30 with the approaching
upper trough. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for
locations along and north of I-30 through the overnight hours,
with damaging winds being the primary threat.

The combination of the upper trough, and a disturbances across
the northern Gulf near the TX/LA border, will yield widespread
rain chances across the region. At this time, not expecting any
severe weather, but isolated damaging winds can`t be ruled out
along with some locally heavy rain. Widespread rain chances will
remain in the forecast on Saturday with the upper trough over the
area. By Sunday, progs keep rain chances over the area, but mostly
along and south of the I-20 corridor. Upper ridging returns
across the region for the first half of next week. This should
bring us much drier conditions, although some additional isolated
showers and thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during peak heating.
The drier conditions could bring a return of heat headlines across
the region. By the end of next week, long-term models are
bringing widespread rainfall back to the area with an approaching
cool front. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, light S/SW wind this morning under fair
skies. We could see a return of MVFR-LIFR at KLFK for another hour
or two. Otherwise, S/SW winds will prevail 5-10KT for today with
little if any convection expected again this late afternoon terminal
wise, but isolated pop-ups will be possible here and there. A weak
cool front approaching will bring an uptick in convection across I-
30 tonight with pooled moisture arriving for KTXK by 04-06Z and
KTYR/KGGG 09-12Z. Coverage gets better areawide with heating. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed during the evening and overnight
hours for storms along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  75  96  74  96 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  70  91  68  96 /  40  60  20  20
TXK  74  94  73  97 /  20  40  20  20
ELD  72  96  71  96 /  20  40  20  20
TYR  75  96  75  98 /  20  30  20  10
GGG  73  97  74  99 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  73  93  73  93 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24