133
FXUS64 KSHV 191833
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
133 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend,
   with highs in the middle to upper 90s and no rain to speak of.

 - There will be low chances of showers and a few storms across
   the northwestern ArkLaTex on Monday, but coverage will be
   limited and accumulation mostly negligible.

 - Temperatures should be trending slightly cooler by mid to late
   next week, with temperatures closer to seasonal averages,
   although generally still above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The upper level ridge, which has been dominating the weather pattern
over our Four State region and responsible for the worsening drought
and anomalous September heat, is still in place. However, there is a
touch of good news - the ridge is weakening some and will continue
the trend of temporarily weakening through the early part of next
week. During this period of time, one or two weak disturbances on
the southern fringe of a northern Rockies closed upper low will help
flatten the aforementioned ridge and allow a weak cold front to sag
down into our area. Moisture in the tropospheric column will
generally increase later tomorrow and through Monday, which at least
will result in more cloud cover than has been the case recently.
Thinking optimistically, this sequence of events will bring at least
low chances for measurable rainfall later tomorrow night through
Monday evening, although mainly across the northwest half of the
region. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal to Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms northwest of our coverage area tomorrow
into tomorrow night associated with at least loosely organized
thunderstorms developing along the mentioned cold front. However,
the consensus of short range convection-allowing models suggests
storms will lose intensity, if not entirely fall apart, before
getting into far northwestern zones tomorrow night. If we are lucky,
the incoming front on Monday will "overproduce" convection in our
area and rain potential will increase in subsequent forecasts, but
drought begets drought - which is why the chances for showers and
storms on Monday currently are not at all impressive. Temperatures
will remain well above normal through Monday, although peak heat
indices mainly in the lower 100s should keep us front needing Heat
Advisories.

Unfortunately, the upper level ridge will start to gain a foothold
again later Tuesday through the rest of the workweek and should keep
our region mostly, if not entirely, dry. Some bit of good news is
that a slightly less-hot ("cooler" may be overselling it) air mass
should be oozing south into the region following the weak cold
frontal passage. We are currently advertising highs ranging from the
lower 90s north to mid 90s south from Wednesday into the start of
next weekend with low temperatures mainly ranging from the low to
mid 60s north to around 70 in the south over that same period. It is
a little too early to say we are entirely done with Heat Advisories
until next year, but I`m crossing my fingers and saying "maybe".

Longer range NWP guidance suggests we could get the pattern changing
up some, although not yet dramatically, 10 or so days down the road.
Hopefully this can actually happen and increase at least periodic
rain opportunities and a better crack at seasonally normal
temperatures. /50/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for all sites through the
period, with limited cloud cover this afternoon thanks to dry air
aloft. The main story will be some slight wind shifts before a
greater shift southwesterly late tomorrow morning. But winds are
expected to stay light, generally below 10 kts. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  73 100  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  68  97  69  97 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  71  99  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  72  97  75  97 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  71 100  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  71  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...57