854
FXUS64 KSHV 031150
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Cooler than average temperatures will continue into the new
   work week as the northeasterly winds linger through Tuesday.

 - We will likely see areas south of I-20 require a Heat Advisory
   once again by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

With the recent rain, we are starting to see some fog development
in portions of the region. Winds are expected to stay light
overnight, which will allow for some patchy fog to continue. Any
fog that does develop should mix out a few hours after sunrise
Sunday morning.

The high pressure over the Desert Southwest is keeping our upper-
level flow out of the northwest, advecting relatively cooler and
drier air into the Ark-La-Tx. This will bring temperatures closer
to the realm of seasonal, with afternoon highs down to the upper
80s and low 90s through Monday. Model guidance is continuing to
pick up on a shortwave trough moving along the flow and impacting
the area on Monday. The associated vorticity advection is being
picked up by the NBM, and bringing increased PoPs through southeastern
OK and eastern TX Monday afternoon. The location and timing of the
trough could still be in flux and will be further refined in
future packages.

The brief respite in temperatures will be over on Tuesday, as the
pressure gradient across the CONUS brings surface winds back to a
southerly orientation. In addition to the increased warm air and
moisture advection, the Desert Southwest high pressure center will
expand and shift to the east, keeping large-scale rain at bay.
Temperatures look to be creeping back into the mid 90s through
next week and may bring heat indices back up to heat product
criteria. Afternoon sea breezes may bring some showers to our
southeast zones late next week, but the long term is looking to
stay hot and dry. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the 03/12Z TAF period, most sites are VFR with post-frontal
drier air filtering south across our airspace. The few exceptions
are across East TX where low cigs persist and will likely linger
through mid morning along with some patchy fog before it scatters
out and lifts as heating commences. A modest cu field will develop
toward midday with some passing high clouds as well through much
of the period. So overall, a quiet period is expected with mostly
SKC conditions returning around 04/00Z as light E/NE winds prevail
around 5 kts on average through the daytime hours while near calm
overnight.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed for days to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  91  68  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  89  65  87  66 /   0  10  10   0
TXK  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  89  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  91  71  89  71 /   0  10  30  10
GGG  90  70  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LFK  92  71  92  71 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19