340
FXUS64 KSHV 181853
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
153 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

 - Intense mid to late August heat will persist across the region
   and maintain heat headlines through the middle of this week.

 - Some slight heat relief is expected to arrive late this week by
   way of a rare August cool front and increasing thunderstorms.

 - The break in the heat appears to be brief as the upper-level
   ridge axis out west will begin to expand back eastward this
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

This extended streak of above average August heat will continue
to dominate the weather headlines through mid week as the strength
of the upper-level ridge axis holds serve for a few more days. The
only short-term heat relief will be in the form of very isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, diurnally driven in
nature and largely oriented around the eastern periphery of the
ridge axis with better coverage near the coast and northward into
our far southern and eastern zones. Aside from this low potential,
there isn`t anything to quell the heat as high temperatures will
surge into the upper 90s to lower triple digits once again on
Tuesday. Therefore, it goes without saying the Heat Advisory has
been extended through Tuesday at 8 PM with isolated instances of
max heat indices topping 110 degrees in our more urban locations
but not widespread enough to warrant an upgrade to an Extreme Heat
Warning.

Moving into Wednesday, expect to see the upper ridge retrograde
farther west and center itself out over the Four Corners Region.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin will begin to accelerate her northward
turn up the eastern seaboard but still well off the SE coast. In
between the ridge to our west and Erin churning in the Atlantic, a
rare summer cool front will be slowly advancing southward into the
Mid-South and eventually arrive in our northern zones late in the
day. Compressional warming ahead of the boundary will likely push
high temperatures into the upper 90s for most locations so heat
headlines may very well be extended through Wednesday afternoon
before relief finally arrives with the front.

Frontal forcing combined with the strong diurnal heating will
contribute to greater coverage of convection across our region,
especially by late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours as
the front shifts south toward I-20. Expect these elevated rain
chances to persist through at least Thursday for all areas before
becoming largely confined to areas south of I-20 by Friday and on
through this weekend. By then, the heat should begin to ratchet
up once again with more typical summertime conditions returning
for late August.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the 18/18z TAF period...Expect light northeast winds, with
scattered afternoon CU. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail, but
some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon and early evening hours, which could bring
some reduced flight categories. This convection should diminish
after sunset, with VFR conditions returning overnight.

/20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight, although
some of the stronger storms may produce locally gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 102  78  99 /  20  10  10  50
MLU  75 100  75  99 /  20  10  10  50
DEQ  74 101  73  95 /  20  10  20  50
TXK  78 103  76  98 /  20  10  10  50
ELD  74 100  74  96 /  20  20  10  50
TYR  77 100  77  97 /  20  10  10  50
GGG  76 101  76  98 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  75  98  76  98 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...05