565
FXUS64 KSHV 310915
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
315 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Surface based convection along a cold front continues to depart east
of the FA this morning as a band of mid and high clouds remains
situated across the region, virtually splitting the CWA in two.
Mesoanalysis aligns this cloud axis with a string of 700mb
frontogenesis hanging back west of the surface FGEN across eastern
Louisiana and western Mississippi. In the northern zones, especially
where rainfall totals were greatest Thursday afternoon, fog will
continue to be an on and off battle through sunrise. The area of
highest density for now, looks to be north of the I-30 corridor, but
areas of patchy dense fog may extend as far south as Texarkana. That
being said, light southwesterly winds have prevailed on local
observations over the last hour or so, so this may inhibit just how
far south the fog advects and therefore lowering confidence in this
evolving more than it already has. Regardless, both patchy and dense
fog will support low visibility on local roads during the AM
commute.

As the axis of the upper trough swings through later this morning, a
drier atmospheric column will fill in the wake of the late week
system. This should displaced what is left of the local cloud
coverage leading to an afternoon of mostly clear skies, with mild
temperatures in the mid to upper 60`s and breezy WNW winds.
Overnight, shallow cold air advection and support from radiational
cooling under a calmer surface wind profile and clear skies will
allow for lows to fall into the upper 30`s and low 40`s. With
temperatures falling between the two, and dew point values still
holding in the upper 30`s and low 40`s, fog will again be a concern
overnight and into Saturday morning. Surface high pressure working
into the region from south Texas will hang around for Saturday
afternoon. With a transition to light southerly winds by the mid
afternoon, this will support Saturday maxT`s in the mid to upper
60`s, near 70 deg F. Would not be surprised if we see a few climate
sights hit this mark or exceed by a degree or two. Given prevailing
southerly winds, Saturday night lows will be a few degrees warmer,
trending in the mid 40`s.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

By Sunday, there is good agreement that the upper level pattern
becomes zonal locally, along with much of the CONUS. Steady surface
southerlies through the first half of the new week will see maxT`s
climb quickly, with a return to well above average temperatures.
Highs in the 70`s as early as Sunday will continue to push ever so
close to 80 deg F through the long term period. At the same time,
rain chances will be hard to come by while under a suppressive
synoptic regime through at least Tuesday night. While moisture will
be present, deep layer forcing is not, leading to very limited
chances for areawide rainfall. Some deterministic solutions do
suggest that a weak cutoff feature across northern Mexico and south
Texas may enhance local deep layer moisture just enough to see a
return of showers in advance of shallow FGEN to the north. However
confidence remains limited at this time given lower probabilities in
the longer range of the package. For now, key messages are a drier
period through the first half of the long term and above normal
temperatures.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions prevail for all sites. There is a possibility of
fog overnight in areas where winds are calmer than the 5 kts
expected. Winds will become northwesterly and gusty tomorrow but
skies will remain mostly clear. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  39  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  35  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  64  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  40  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  67  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57