395
FXUS64 KSHV 040048
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
748 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue this
   afternoon through much of the upcoming weekend.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to portions of
   North Louisiana Sunday, and to much of the region for the first
   half of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Drier air has begun to backdoor W across Srn AR/N LA early this
afternoon, as evidenced by the back edge of the N-S cu field
noted on the visible satellite imagery, as well as the sharp
gradient noted in the sfc isodrosotherms in the midday sfc
analysis. In fact, this gradient of drier air has served as a weak
forcing mechanism for the development of isolated -SHRA just W of
Toledo Bend Dam over upper SE TX, which should continue shifting
WSW as the drier air continues to deepen as it mixes W through the
afternoon. Despite the dry air intrusion, above normal temps will
continue this afternoon, with the air mass gradually beginning to
modify from the ESE late tonight as the weak upper low over Srn
MS/Coastal SE LA begins to drift back to the W. Thus, low level
moisture associated with the scattered cu field over Ern MS/AL
this afternoon will spread W into our region through the day, with
an upward nudge in dewpoints expected (compared to what will be
observed this afternoon). The presence of sfc ridging extending
from the OH valley SW into ECntrl TX will result in good
radiational cooling tonight, and given the dry air in place, will
result in comfortable temps as they fall mostly fall in the upper
50s to near 60 degrees.

Unfortunately, Fall remains no where in sight as above normal
temps will continue this weekend through the remainder of the
extended period (and possibly beyond). While another dry day is
expected Saturday, the Wwd drift of the weak opening low will
result in higher PW air to edge back W into N LA Sunday, with the
potential for at least isolated afternoon convection to track NW
into this area. Did expand upon the smaller area of slight chance
pops the NBM continued to advertise over N LA given the good model
consensus, with the potential for greater isolated to widely
scattered coverage over more of the area Monday and Tuesday, as
this weakness aloft lingers. By midweek, flat upper ridging from
the Srn Plains along the Gulf Coast looks to persist through at
least the end of the work week, although its Ewd extent will be
dependent on the extent of troughing aloft that develops from the
Nrn Plains into the Great Lakes Region. This in turn may send a
weak cool front into the area for late week. But until then (if it
does at all), above normal temps will persist, as will the return
to the dry conditions.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the 04/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly
SKC across our airspace aside from some very sparse coverage of a
cu field on Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure at the
sfc and aloft will maintain favorable flight conditions with light
E/NE winds generally averaging around 5 kts or less throughout the
period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  91  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  61  90  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  56  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  57  88  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  62  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  91  64  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...19