714
FXUS64 KSHV 231753
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1153 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The forecast is largely on track this morning. Afternoon highs for
our far northern zones have been adjusted down a few degrees to
better align with trends. Afternoon PoPs have also been adjusted
to fit the speed of the rain`s progression that has been seen
through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Air temperatures at 3&4 am are mostly in the low to mid 40s along
and south of I-20. The rainfall is helping to warm temps with
mixing from aloft where the Westerlies have the mercury a good 10
degrees above freezing. In the lowest levels we still have NE
winds from the surface up for a couple or few thousand feet, then
the warm nose seen on our last sounding. So it is possible,
especially in a handful of our more sheltered river valleys, that
initiation of light rain or drizzle could be freezing on impact,
but only on a bridge top or car wind shield would be briefly
affected. Air temperatures are below freezing from Idabel to
Foreman and Hope, then snaking down into Magnolia and El Dorado.
The dew points have just a little breathing room in SE OK closer
to saturation, but farther east into Arkansas, the spreads
support some brief evaporative cooling, before that warming
effect can be realized. Ground temps are above freezing and any
amount of precip would be of little significance.

By 9am, we should be all wet going forward. The SPC has a general
thunder line up to near Texarkana, and lapse rates are hearty
with an isolated thunderstorm possible, but more likely from
Lufkin to say Monroe as this system tails out of here late this
afternoon and by the mid evening. We may see some late day
sunshine in NE TX, but overall the ground will stay damp with fog
a good bet tonight with very light or calm wind as the high
pressure continues to drift eastward. The much better warming
effect of a surface wind shift will be very nice this week with
temps jumping back through averages on Monday. We further run the
risk of some Spring fever outbreaks during the work week with
southwest winds and lots of 70s for highs coming our way.

The upper trough is over N Texas now and will move overhead this
afternoon and early evening with the last of the rain moving out
of our Parishes during the mid evening hours. So far, at
Shreveport Regional, we have over a half inch in the bucket. This
is close to the expected range from the WPC on their day one QPF.
Many of our Parishes may see a half inch to inch coming with this
event. Lesser amounts over east Texas and southern Arkansas, and
maybe just trace amounts to a few hundreths over SE Oklahoma. The
overall day will keep coolish with a range of upper 40s and lower
50s by late day. The clouds and lack of wind with foggy
conditions overnight will seem warmer too a range of saturated 30s
areawide. Then as the air mass pulls more to our east, the
southwest winds will fire up by Monday afternoon with a range of
average low to mid 60s. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Little change aside from the warming trend this week as we see
light NW flow aloft for a while as a Pacific surface high at
1017mb drifts over the region by midweek, ramping up those SW
winds and ushering the warmer temps back in over our Four-State
area. We will see a zonal flow by late Wednesday with a slight
chance for some rainfall in our east, from the tail end of an
Ohio Valley and Great low upper trough. So much of the week will
see low to mid 70s for highs, then a few more average 60s for
Thursday before moving right back into the 70s for Friday and
weekend. Our lows will be near normal with 40s most if not all
days this week with some minor variation. Late in the period, the
GFS backdoors an air mass 1032mb down the MS River Valley mid
weekend with NBM not interested just yet as the ECMWF is only
1026mb on the core of the air mass over southern Canada. So if our
winds do shift back to NE, it will be more 60s for Sunday. Either
way both are dry until a core upper low moves over the desert SW
U.S. and shifts our light NW flow back to SW for an early deposit
in our March rain buckets. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Busy TAF period as low ceilings and dense OVC continue to prevail
across the airspace terminals. Along with that is the ongoing BR
and RA associated with the low decks. This will continue through
the afternoon with little to no recovery for many eastern
terminals. That being said, western terminals should begin to see
some brief scattering of the low deck over the next several hours.
Much of this will be short lived though as IFR and LIFR returns
across the airspace overnight as FG, dropping VSBY`s well below a
mile and even below 1/2SM, exist through daybreak Monday. By the
end of the period, what FG does remain will begin to lift and burn
off Monday afternoon. That being said, guidance does suggest that
this will be a slow process.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 415 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  38  63  41  70 /  30   0   0   0
DEQ  30  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  34  65  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  63  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  36  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...53