780
FXUS64 KSHV 221447
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
947 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The northward advancing warm front has stalled this morning, and
is now meandering just north of I-20. The leading edge of the
cloud coverage on the satellite presentation, along with the dew
point values south of the boundary are a good indicator of where
the front is located. Expectation is for the boundary to hang
around here for a few more hours, prior to lifting further north
later this afternoon. At the same time, hi-res CAMs are still
advertising pulsing t-storms this afternoon closer to the LA gulf
coast, with additional coverage spreading north and into the
southern parishes and counties of the FA. This is co-located
within the SPC D1 Marginal Risk area. Though widespread severe
weather probabilities are low, stronger thunderstorms may support
heavier rain rates, hail and gusty winds within an uncapped
warm sector south of the boundary. Aside from adjusting hourlies
to meet the latest trends, the forecast remains on track. Elected
to draw in a region of patchy fog through noon along the I-20
corridor and south as latest observations still advertise reduced
visibility in multiple locations.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Warm front continues to lift northward attm at a pretty rapid clip
with dewpoint temperatures having risen nearly 5 degrees in just
two hours here at Shreveport. The front appears to be near a
Palestine to Shreveport to El Dorado line and this feature will
continue moving northward today. With the increase in dewpoints
south of the northward moving boundary and light winds in place,
we are also seeing some patchy fog developing, and this will
continue to be a possibility through 9-10am south of the boundary.
With Pwats near 1.5 inches, dirty southwest flow aloft and little
in the way of any capping in place, this is the perfect
ingredients for diurnally driven convection today with the
greatest coverage being mainly near and south of the I-20
Corridor, especially across Deep East Texas into Northern
Louisiana so have pops more heavily weighted across our southeast
half today.

Held onto small pops overnight, mainly along and southeast of the
I-30 Corridor with the greatest coverage likely being during the
evening as we await a little more in the way of upper forcing that
will be heading our way from the west on Wednesday. The first in a
series of disturbances will be moving out of the TX Hill Country
late tonight and moving across our region during the afternoon and
evening on Wednesday. While the disturbance or perturbation does
not appear like much amplification wise embedded in this southwest
flow aloft pattern, given that we are dealing with an uncapped
atmosphere and with the plentiful moisture in place, its all that
will be necessary for the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, something that a majority of the CAMS
and deterministic models agree upon for Wed. Not expecting any
severe weather with this activity all though a wet downburst
cannot be ruled totally out where pockets of moderate instability
are able to develop Wed Aftn.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Due to ridging across the Bahamas and troughing across the
southwest Great Basin, the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley will
continue to be under this west southwest flow aloft type pattern
and embedded disturbances in this flow will continue to eject out
of the Great Basin, heading our way and impacting our region in
the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week. The next disturbance appears to head
our way during the day Thursday and again, best storm coverage
will be tied to daytime heating. There appears to be a weaker
perturbation on the heels of Thursday`s weakness that we will have
to deal with on Friday before this upper flow buckles somewhat
across our region for Saturday into Sunday which should result in
a reduction in storm chances for Saturday and especially on
Sunday. In fact, as a trough of low pressure digs across the
southwest U.S. and we lose the effects of the Bahama ridging to
our east, we should actually begin to see upper ridging develop
across the Lower Miss Valley into the Tenn Valley which should
keep us dry into early next week assuming that this pattern holds.
That drier pattern appears to change by next Tuesday and just
beyond this forecast as we will likely be looking at our next
storm chances and possible severe weather chances somewhere in
the Tue/Wed timeframe next week with the ejection of the next
Great Plains longwave trough.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

KMLU and KLFK have LIFR conditions prevailing due to a
combination of fog and ceiling heights. Other sites have either
VFR or high MVFR ceilings. Further patchy fog development is
possible at other sites along I-20, but not to the extent of KMLU
or KLFK. Fog will mix out over the next several hours. Winds will
stay light, maxing out around 5 kts out of the southeast. Spotty
showers will be possible throughout the day, especially along and
south of the I-20 corridor. There were only a few sites where
there was higher confidence of VCTS, but other sites should be
aware of the possibility of rain through the day. The low ceilings
should pull back to the east this afternoon before another upper-
level system brings in more widespread rain on Wednesday. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  67  83  67 /  20  20  60  40
MLU  83  64  82  66 /  40  30  60  30
DEQ  83  59  80  62 /  10  10  50  40
TXK  86  64  83  65 /  20  20  60  40
ELD  83  60  82  62 /  20  20  60  40
TYR  86  67  82  67 /  20  20  60  40
GGG  85  65  82  65 /  20  20  60  40
LFK  85  66  82  66 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...57