086
FXUS64 KSHV 021117
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 - A mostly dry remainder of the week is in store, aside from an
isolated afternoon thunderstorm or two.

 - Heat will increase going into the holiday weekend, with heat
indices in the triple digits, posing a potential hazard for outdoor
activity.

 - Rainfall amounts will be generally below an inch through the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Pronounced upper level ridging will maintain a mostly dry and
increasingly hot pattern for the ArkLaTex through the remainder of
the week, going into the holiday weekend. Tonight, under partly
cloudy skies, lows look to only drop into the lower 70s north and
mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Another round of low to middle 90s are
in store Wednesday afternoon, while the subsident effects of an
upper level high should inhibit afternoon thunderstorm development.

As this first week of July continues, very little change will be
evident in the day to day pattern. Thursday afternoon may see a few
isolated thunderstorms push up from the south, with impacts, if any,
largely confined to the Toledo Bend area, while highs once again
climb into the low to middle 90s.

The aforementioned upper level ridge will take its time pushing east
across the CONUS, its axis positioned almost directly overhead going
into Friday. The good news is that the ridge should keep at bay any
thunderstorms, making for good conditions for fireworks shows.
However, this dry holiday forecast will be accompanied by persistent
heat, which will need to be taken into consideration when planning
outdoor activity, especially for vulnerable groups such as young
children and the elderly. This heat will only increase going into
the weekend, with guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s
across the region. As the weekend comes to an end and the new work
week begins, the high looks to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp
as it gets nudged eastward, reopening the door to southerly flow and
returning the ArkLaTex to that classic summertime pattern of
afternoon sea breeze driven convection across our southern and
eastern zones. While we should see a break from the upper 90s,
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will persist, with lows in the
70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the 02/12z TAF update...Most terminals are reporting SKC, but
I have prevailed BKN200-250 this morning due to some high clouds
in the area, which are setting up for an amazing sunrise this
morning. VFR conditions currently prevail for all terminals except
for KMLU where some fog has developed, bringing CIGs down to 100
feet and visibility down to 2 miles or lower this morning. Thought
the same might happen for KELD this morning too, however, they
have been just fine with no issues. Things should return to VFR
for KMLU later this morning. Another cu field is expected to
develop this afternoon that will bring SCT clouds at around 5k
feet or lower at times. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  94  75  94  74 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ  91  72  90  71 /   0  10  10   0
TXK  95  76  94  74 /   0   0  10   0
ELD  93  73  92  73 /   0   0  10   0
TYR  94  76  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  75  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33