689
FXUS64 KSHV 050309
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1009 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A more humid air mass has spread W across the region this evening,
indicative of the higher theta-e air especially across Deep E TX
into much of NCntrl and NE LA/SE AR. The evening satellite imagery
still continues to depict a narrow line of cu along the leading
edge of this higher theta-e air as it spreads farther W. This
should eventually thin/diminish with time overnight, although the
short term progs remain in good agreement that low stratus should
develop late tonight/closer to daybreak across the Srn sections of
NCntrl LA (S of I-20) into Deep E TX. The progs are not too keen
on patchy FG development, and while some can`t be ruled out,
believe that the current cigs and subsequent low cigs should
offset the more organized FG development, and thus have removed
mention from the forecast. Did have to beef up the sky grids
tonight and especially Saturday to account for the current cigs,
as well as the expected low cloud development and widespread cu
field Saturday.

Only minor tweaks were needed tonight for the min temps, mainly
across portions of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR as these areas are
nearing forecast mins as of 02-03Z. Otherwise, the remainder of
the forecast is on track, with another hot day/above normal temps
expected.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION... Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024
For the 05/00Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to prevail through the
evening hours and much of the night, before lowering CIGs build in
from the south after 05/10Z. Confidence is split on descending
CIGs, but continuing to look possible for MVFR CIGs near or before
05/12Z with impacts likely at KLFK and KMLU, and possible at
KSHV, KGGG and KTYR. These low CIGs may be slow to dissipate, with
some terminals possibly not returning to VFR until closer to
05/18Z, after which VFR conditions should prevail through the
afternoon with another Cu field developing with daytime warming.
East winds will become light overnight before picking up during
the day to maximum sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of
up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  68  91  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  59  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  65  91  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  64  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  65  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  89  68  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26