450
FXUS64 KSHV 230434
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1034 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

03z temps thus far are pretty close to fcst hourly temperatures
given the calm winds currently in place. Still seeing very high
thin cirrus trying to increase from northwest to southeast across
our region but really don`t think it will hamper the already
strong radiational cooling we are already seeing this evening from
taking place. Did lower temperatures slightly across NW LA as we
were running some 5 degrees too warm but that was the only
noteworthy change to the forecast.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Surface high pressure has settled over the region today. This
will result in mostly clear skies and light winds. Under these
conditions, expect very good radiational cooling tonight, with
patchy frost as overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s
areawide. Freezing temps will be possible again across portions of
Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest & South-Central Arkansas.

High pressure will start to slide east of the region on Saturday,
but mostly clear skies will remain. However, light southerly winds
will return, which will result in a slight warm-up across the
area. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the
warmer temps across our East Texas and Western Louisiana zones.
The southerly winds will also yield warmer overnight lows on
Saturday night, with temps expected to fall into the 40s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Dry conditions will remain on Sunday and through out the first
half of Monday, but with southerly winds still in place, expect
the warming trend to continue. It`s very likely some areas could
see afternoon highs into the lower 80s during this period. The
cooler and more seasonal temps will return late Monday into
Tuesday, as a cold front moves across the region. Despite the
southerly winds in the days preceding the front, deep-layer
moisture will be limited. Long-range models are only suggesting
slight to low chance pops along the boundary, mainly across our
South-Central Arkansas and Northeast/Central Louisiana zones.

The seasonal conditions will be short-lived, as the front will
return northward as a warm front to about the Interstate 20
corridor on Wednesday. Highs will return back into the low to mid
70s. Rain chances will also return by Wednesday night and remain
on Thursday, as an upper trough will swing across the Plains,
bring another cold front across the region. Expect cooler temps to
return in wake of this front, with the hint of morning lows near
or below freezing again by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Thin cirrus will continue infiltrating portions of our airspace
overnight but VFR conditions should prevail through the 24hr TAF
cycle. Latest HRRR is suggesting the possibility of some patchy
fog developing after midnight and closer towards sunrise but the
probability of this impacting any of our airports looks remote at
this time so it will be best to handle this with an AMD if
necessary. Look for winds to become mostly calm overnight with SE
to S winds returning on Saturday by late morning with speeds
generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  34  67  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  31  68  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  35  70  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  32  67  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  38  72  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  36  72  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  38  74  49  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13