108
FXUS64 KSHV 201102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the Four State Region
   from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

 - Dry weather, along with hot and humid conditions, will return
   today and for most of the upcoming work week. Additional Heat
   Advisories will be possible, as highs will range from the mid
   90s to 100 degrees.

 - Rain chances will return in our southern and eastern zones by
   the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Upper ridging will build back over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley today and through a good portion of next week.
Although a stray shower or thunderstorm can`t completely be ruled
out with afternoon heating, expect mostly dry weather, with hot
and humid conditions. Afternoon temperatures will range from the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees each day. A Heat Advisory is in
effect from 10 AM to 8 PM today for most of the Four State Region,
with additional heat products likely, as heat indices are expected
to climb above 105 degrees for most of the area next week.

However, we could see some relief from the heat across portions of
the region as we move into the latter half of next week. Long-term
progs continue to suggest that the southern fringe of the ridge
will erode as the center of the ridge will shift a little northward
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Thursday. At the same time,
models have a series of easterly waves developing across the
northern Gulf. This would allow some convection to move into our
southern and eastern zones through at least the first half of next
weekend, generally along and south of Interstate 20 corridor. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Seeing some low level moisture return across our southern airspace
that is trying to condense as it moves northward, thus cannot rule
out some VFR ceilings this morning across all but the TXK/ELD
terminals but they should be brief, if at all. Otherwise look for
VFR conditions prevailing with a descent cu field expected today.
Look for south winds sustained near 8-12kts with some higher
gusts, especially across our NE TX terminal locations. Winds will
decouple overnight.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  96  74  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  77  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  97  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13