765
FXUS64 KSHV 040709
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Along with upper-level ridging, a weak cold front is currently
working its way into the northwest part of the CWA. The line of
showers with some embedded thunder will continue into the area
with this front, weakening through the morning as the front stalls
out. Some scattered showers will linger into the late morning but
should stay benign with the lack of synoptic support. This cold
front also will not bring any relief from the heat due to its
weakness, so afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will stay in the
mid 80s and low 90s. The surface boundary will lift north
overnight and shift the surface winds to be more southerly. This
will keep minimum temperatures unseasonably warm in the low to mid
70s.

Our weather on Thursday will be highly dependent on how the
surface features will set up in relation to the ongoing southwest
flow aloft. In any case, an MCS is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle and work its way ESE through the
Southern Plains. Recent model guidance has showers and
thunderstorms reaching southeast OK and southwest AR as early as
Thursday morning and moving into parts of northeast TX and
northern LA during the afternoon. The stalled front that will keep
us warm tonight could be enough of a lifting mechanism to give any
storms that move in a bit of a boost. However, the upper-level
ridge could also help mitigate these storms and prevent them from
gaining traction, which brings us back to the uncertainty.
Depending on the positions of both the surface boundary and the
southwest flow aloft, there is potential for severe storm
development in the previously mentioned areas on Thursday. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The ridging that will attempt to keep us storm-free will give way
to more of a zonal flow pattern on Friday before shifting to
northwest flow once again. This pattern has a history of bringing
convection to the Ark-La-Tx, which is already being seen in long-
range guidance. An MCS setup is being hinted at for the northern
half of the CWA on Saturday and Sunday, with the area already
being outlooked with a 15% chance of severe weather by SPC. More
convection will also be possible through at least Wednesday. All
of this rain will pose an additional hazard of river and flash
flooding through the period. Despite the chance of rain,
afternoon temperatures will stay in the upper 80s and low 90s,
making for a hot and stormy start to summer. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A frontal boundary moving east across the region will allow for
VCTS conditions across mainly TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV terminals through
05/10Z. Convection is forecast to diminish through the remainder
of the overnight hours before re-developing across these same
areas during the late morning into early afternoon hours. MVFR
ceilings to develop across TYR/GGG near daybreak with conditions
improving by mid-morning. Otherwise, sw winds to increase to 5 to
10 knots today, becoming light and variable after 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  75  92  76 /  30  10  20   0
MLU  91  74  92  75 /  10  10  20   0
DEQ  83  69  86  69 /  40  10  20   0
TXK  89  73  90  73 /  40  10  20   0
ELD  90  71  90  71 /  20  10  20   0
TYR  86  73  89  74 /  50  10  10   0
GGG  88  72  89  73 /  50  20  20   0
LFK  90  73  92  73 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...05