638
FXUS64 KSHV 192355
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - Afternoon high temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees
   with heat indices up to 109 will continue throughout the week
   ahead. a Heat Advisory remains in effect, with extensions
   likely.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for our north and
   east tomorrow afternoon. Some storms may be capable of
   producing damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The upper level ridging over the Intermountain West and its
attendant high pressure over the Four Corners Region and west Texas
will remain parked in place and very much in play throughout the
course of this extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures
are expected to reach and exceed the century mark every afternoon
throughout the week ahead, with the "cool" spots reaching the upper
90s. Overnight lows will fall into the middle to upper 70s
throughout, with only our northeasternmost zones even having a shot
at lower 70s. As of this writing, afternoon dewpoints still look to
fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting in heat indices
justifying continuing the Heat Advisory as previously discussed. Any
heat indices of 110 or greater will be isolated and short-lived
enough to not merit upgrading at this time.

The most consequential synoptic scale factor in the forecast for the
days ahead will be the eastward reach of our prevailing high
pressure center. Guidance is suggesting a slight retrograde by
tomorrow afternoon, opening the door just enough for northwest flow
to channel some showers and thunderstorms over the Ozarks and into
our southwest Arkansas counties. However, a key source of
uncertainty is the pronounced capping present in forecast soundings.
If the cap remains substantial enough, we may see little to no
rainfall, nevermind storms. However, if uplift manages to break the
cap, the developing storms look to exhibit significant potential for
downbursts producing strong, damaging wind gusts.

Tomorrow`s potential storms will dissipate into the evening hours,
before slight chances of showers and storms return to our eastern
zones Friday afternoon, with coverage and intensity similarly
contingent on the position of our upper level high. Into the weekend
ahead, guidance favors a strengthening of the ridge and high,
forming a blocking pattern which will sustain the heat as advertised
above, while shutting down any significant precip chances through
the remainder of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the 20/00z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing a band of
high clouds along and north of the I-20 corridor, with some mid
level cu across portions of the area as well. Maintained some FEW
at 8k feet and SCT at 25k feet through this evening. Left some
mention of some lower clouds around 1500 feet for LFK overnight,
but this should be the only terminal that drops this low.
Otherwise, VFR continues to prevail. There are some chances for
some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but too early
to include it right now. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 104  80 103 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  79 102  78 101 /   0   0  20  20
DEQ  75 104  72 103 /   0  20  30   0
TXK  80 103  77 102 /   0  20  30   0
ELD  78 102  76 101 /   0  10  30   0
TYR  79 103  80 104 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  79 105  79 105 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  76 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33