288
FXUS64 KSHV 141853
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
153 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms remain possible through
   Wednesday evening with some lower chances across east Texas on
   Thursday.

 - Dry and warmer conditions will return on Thursday and continue
   into the weekend, with some heat related concerns expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Radar imagery is starting to show some isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing this afternoon across the northern half
of the forecast area, thanks to an upper level low that is
retrograding westward. Expecting this activity to increase some
in coverage, but models have really backed off on how much
increase to coverage we will see. Nonetheless, after seeing how
some of the short range models are initializing and seeing what is
on radar, I am not putting much faith in the guidance. The good
news is, these storms today seem to be more progressive, which
hopefully will limit the flash flooding potential. We will have
one more day tomorrow of the potential for widespread convection
across the region. On Thursday, chances will be limited to our
east Texas areas and then things really dry up for the rest of the
week, into the weekend and the start of next week.

After some relief early this week from the oppressive heat,
temperatures will return to the 90s for the majority of the region
by Thursday and then increase each day into the weekend, returning
to the middle and upper 90s by Sunday, and potentially even warmer
as we move into next week. As such, we will need to watch for the
potential of heat related headlines to be issued as we move into
next week, although we have seen something similar to this, where
we were cool and rainy for the start of the week, guidance
suggested that we would need products heading into the weekend,
and as it got closer they remembered that the soils are super
moist, grass is really green, and then we are borderline for
headlines. One thing I am more confident about, rain chances will
decrease as we head through the week and temperatures will
increase. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals,MVFR cigs bcmg VFR with a weak fropa
nearly stationary along our I-20 sites which will trigger some mid
to late day convection as boundary lifts back northward. SFC winds
are already S at KSHV and starting to see SE-SW wind from KTYR to
KMLU. Our balloon sounding is indicating a little more dry air aloft
than lately with a weak cap right near the FRZ level at 15kft and
wind will be gusty near downpours. Spotty IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby are
expected again 09-15Z, with VFR and SCT convection for one last day.

/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested across the region,
particularly for flooding concerns across the region. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  88  72  91 /  10  40  10  10
MLU  72  90  72  93 /  20  50  20   0
DEQ  70  86  68  89 /  30  70  20  10
TXK  72  88  71  91 /  20  60  20  10
ELD  70  86  69  91 /  30  60  10   0
TYR  71  89  72  91 /  20  50  10  10
GGG  70  89  71  91 /  20  50  10  10
LFK  69  88  71  91 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24