890
FXUS64 KSHV 171733 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Mostly clear skies with above average highs will continue
   through Friday.

 - Showers will return to the area on Saturday with some severe
   weather potential during the afternoon and evening hours.

 - Briefly cooler conditions will follow this weekend`s system,
   with temperatures closer to fall-like hinted for later next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The continued upper-level ridge will bring another dry day with
high temperatures firmly in the 80s. This ridge will begin to
decrease in amplitude and progress to the east through the day on
Friday, which will be followed by the system being monitored for
severe weather on Saturday.

A shortwave trough from the Intermountain West is expected to move
eastward through portions of the Southern Plains and the Ark-La-Tx
during the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. The
primary hazard looks to be damaging winds, but large hail and a
few tornadoes can`t be ruled out either. Some model solutions
display morning convection that would limit destabilization later
in the day. If this convection dissipates quickly, or never
initiates, the risk of hazards other than damaging winds becomes
more likely. Agreement on the timing of the trough`s movement
also remains uncertain, with early runs of the HRRR being
noticeably ahead of other models that are pushing off direct
impacts until the evening hours. While drought conditions have
begun to take hold of the region, WPC has outlined portions of the
region as being at Marginal Risk for flash and urban flooding
with this system on Saturday. At the time of writing, much of the
region looks like it will see less that 1" of rain. But rainfall
estimates look to get closer to, or possibly exceed, 1" for areas
east of I-49 by midday on Sunday. While these totals seem
underwhelming, these showers could have heavy rain rates that
bring enough water in a short enough time to create localized
flooding. This is especially true for more urban areas and low-
lying areas.

Significantly cooler temperatures will be on the coattails of the
outgoing front. Afternoon highs on Sunday look to be in the low to
mid 70s generally along and north of I-20, with areas south mostly
in the upper 70s. These gorgeous seasonal temperatures will give
way to another slight warm up through the week with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s through the week. Long-range models are also
hinting at a weak secondary cold front moving through the Ark-La-
Tx early Tuesday morning, but additional rain accumulation with it
looks to be slim at this time. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will generally be
gradually picking up across the region from now through the
morning hours tomorrow as low level moisture increases in advance
of a disturbance moving in later tomorrow. Expect this disturbance
to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
region tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening, but nearly all
of that will hold off until just after this TAF period. Nearly all
sites are VFR now, although TXK/TYR/GGG/SHV/LFK do have scattered
to broken cu with bases as low as 2 to 3 kft. Expect these bases
to continue to gradually lift through the rest of the afternoon,
although a stray shower this afternoon cannot be completely ruled
out at TYR, GGG, and especially LFK. Tonight will start mostly
clear to partly cloudy with low clouds spreading in from the south
from roughly 10 UTC to 14 UTC. These bases will be mostly MVFR
with a brief period of IFR ceilings and a bit of vis reductions
most likely around 12 UTC in the vicinity of LFK. These cloud
bases will be gradually lifting from mid to late morning on
Saturday, although most locations (aside from ELD and MLU) will
likely be mainly sub-VFR through the bulk of the morning hours
tomorrow.

50

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  70  88  61 /  20  10  70  70
MLU  91  64  90  63 /  10   0  40  90
DEQ  86  65  82  50 /  10  10  80  40
TXK  89  70  87  55 /  10  10  80  60
ELD  88  65  86  55 /  10   0  70  80
TYR  89  69  85  57 /  10  10  60  50
GGG  89  67  86  57 /  20  10  70  60
LFK  90  67  88  62 /  20   0  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...50