287
FXUS64 KSHV 181056
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Persistence is the best forecast tool in the short-term with this
dry, uneventful pattern across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss
Valley. Upper ridging across the eastern Great Lakes will extend
southward into the Appalachians and Southeast U.S. while a
vigorous closed upper trough remains cutoff from the westerlies as
it digs into the Four Corners area of the country. Our region
remains sandwiched between the two but in the lower levels, we
just can`t seem to get any low level moisture return. An area of
very low PWAT with values only near one quarter of an inch has
anchored itself across our entire region and that dry air is here
to stay as the above mentioned ridge axis to our east will begin
to slowly retrograde westward into our region during the day
Saturday. All this will do is to allow temperatures to slowly
moderate in the short term. Concerning temperatures, did under cut
NBM MOS temps just a degree or two here and there given the very
dry atmosphere in place and likewise, adjusted afternoon
temperatures up a degree or two for the same reasons.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The above mentioned upper ridge will continue to retrograde
westward and by Sunday, should have encompassed much of the
Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley. The vigorous upper trough which
remains closed as of Sunday across the Four Corners Region is
forecast to lift mostly northward, up and over the ridge before
opening up and filling across the Central Plains and the Upper Mid
West by Tue of next week. At this time, it appears like the trough
passage may help to shift the upper ridge axis west of our region
with more of a northwest flow aloft type pattern developing across
the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley by mid to late week. This
would allow for a weak frontal boundary to backdoor its way into
our region from the north and east sometime Thu into Fri but with
virtually no moisture return ahead of this feature, again no
precipitation is forecast through the end of the forecast period.

With our region remaining precipitation free through late next
week, that will result in nearly 30 days of virtually no rainfall
across our region and thus, flash drought conditions will only
continue to worsen.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Little to no change for the 12z TAF cycle as the only necessary
adjustment from the 06z package was to adjust the prevailing line
to match the latest FEW250 theme. This should carry through the
morning before a transition to SCT250 across the airspace, while
a mix of SCT/BKN250 exists across the southern terminals. That
being said, no deviation from VFR expected through the TAF period.
Terminal winds should remain E to SE through the day between
5-10kts.

KNAPP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  75  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  75  39  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  75  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  75  40  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  78  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  77  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53