164
FXUS64 KSHV 301123 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

 - Little if any rainfall expected today as the upper ridge moves
   into the Mid-South with a peak in the heat with more
   subsidence.

 - Some rain chances will be returning this week, mainly south of
   I-20 as tropical waves move west along the Gulf Coast, also
   adding humidity and some returning heat advisory conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Fair skies tonight with low to mid 70s already in southern
Arkansas, most locales are warmer in the upper 70s and lower 80s
at midnight. Light SE winds around 5 mph are blowing and will be
prevailing for much of the week ahead. We had some nice NE wind
Saturday as the surface high over the Appalachians was still
helping to mix out the dew points. We had several sites in the 30%
range for RH in the mid afternoon. However, the SE winds will
slowly elevate the dew points in the coming days with lows warming
a bit each day. This will also bring back the heat concerns with
heat indices reaching criteria of 106 or more in the days ahead.

High temperatures will likely peak today with more near record
readings this afternoon in a few spots, while others will remain
out of reach. The days ahead will see highs fall off slightly,
but the added humidity will be our problem once again with the
heat index creeping upwards each day. Headlines for such will
start to filter back into the region during the workweek. The
upper high has left the intermountain west and desert southwest,
expanding back over the plains and middle MS River valley today.

This will bump the subsidence for us, boosting temps in some cases
and really limiting convection. Although we will have to endure
more muggy heat, the chance for rainfall will slowly see an
uptick in coverage as the upper high drifts farther eastward and
weakens. In addition, the SE winds prevailing will help to usher
the sea breeze northward. One modeled weakness will keep offshore
of New Orleans today, but moving toward Houston for Monday. On the
back side of the weakness a little better push will lift activity
into our southern tier. By midweek, a secondary wave and weak
upper low aloft will ride up into the lower MS River Valley with
even some QPF signal into south Arkansas and east Texas by
Thursday. The remnants of Dolly follow suite moving westward
along the Gulf coast by this time next week and could further
increase convection in our area for the Labor Day long weekend.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period.
Scattered elevated cu along with low AC cigs have redeveloped
early this morning across portions of Lower E TX along/S of I-20
into N LA/SCntrl AR, but should gradually thin/burn off by mid to
late morning, as a scattered lower cu field develops with the
increase in diurnal heating. This cu field should diminish
by/shortly after 00Z Monday, aside from some lingering low AC over
portions of E TX. Elsewhere, SKC should prevail this
evening/overnight. SSW winds 5-8kts this morning should gradually
back more SE or possibly become VRB this afternoon, before
becoming light SE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  97  75  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
DEQ  99  70  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  98  73  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
TYR 102  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG 102  73 101  75 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  99  74  98  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15