623
FXUS64 KSHV 151202
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Little change in the short term period for a nice weekend with
   warm and humid late summery conditions. Morning clouds, then
   more sunshine and mid 80s into early next week.

 - One last good Canadian air mass will fall short of our area to
   start the week, but it will be helpful pacing the coming rain.

 - By midweek, the much advertised deep upper trough arrives with
   loads of clouds and rainfall, clearing Friday for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

More weather reruns this weekend and early next week with above
average temperatures and moist southerly winds off the Gulf of
America. The models are in fairly good agreement early next week
will see a cold front graze our Four-State area with S/SW winds
this weekend, backing to SE briefly with even a chance for NE
wind, albeit lightly over S AR by Monday. So no frontal passage
or cold air mass arriving, but increased clouds this cooler air
boundary to our NE, will be great to slow rain event for all the
coming Pacific moisture to climb on, and slowly pace across the
midSouth.

Light showers and some isolated thunderstorms will start to show
up for a few sites into Tuesday into Wednesday, but still it`s the
mid to late part of next week that is looking now much wetter.
First for our I-30 corridor into midweek, and then slowly shifting
eastward through the end of the week with an axis of heavy
rainfall occurring during mainly Thursday into Friday for the
ArkLaTex. High end amounts of 1 to 3 inches for all of our zones
with some bullseyes of 3 to 5 inches along and north of I-30. We
will start to trend cooler each day after Tuesday, but even more
so by Wednesday with added clouds the rain approaching. We will
trend down into the 70s for highs and 50s for low with the heavy
rainfall areas late week.

Timing of the main moisture axis is a little slower now for more
of Thursday`s daytime heating across our area. So perhaps a
better chance for some bumpy storms to develop, and then finally
light Northerly winds during Friday with a weak 1020mb air mass
for a beautiful fall weekend. This is a Pacific cold front and
not Canadian air mass, so limited drying and cold for the weekend,
but closer to seasonal and some welcomed sunshine. The good news
is we will not have to wait weeks again for more rainfall, instead
another deep trough quickly following in the now busy Westerlies
pattern will be arriving Monday into Tuesday. We may even be
ramping up more heavy rainfall in the pattern during the early
part of that last week. And right there is the good news for
overall November rainfall totals, a period of above average
rainfall in the CPC 6 to 10 outlook. And all just ahead of the
busy travel days around our Thanksgiving holiday. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Low CIGs and FG are present across portions of the airspace this
morning. This is expected to remain in place through the early
hours of the period before a gradual lifting and scattering out
of the low ceilings trend later in the day. One of the main
concerns through the afternoon will be breezy S/SW winds between
10-15kt, with an occasional gust near 20kt not ruled out across
the western terminals in ETX. By the evening, a trend towards SKC
looks to be the theme ahead of the return of some upper level
cirrus drifting in from the SW.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  81  59  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  82  61  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  79  57  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  82  60  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  83  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53