110
FXUS64 KSHV 072348
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Remnant outflow boundary resides near the I-30 Corridor of NE TX
and SW AR with the boundary having almost pulled up stationary
this afternoon. This remnant boundary combined with a weakness
aloft in WNW flow and the development of a 30-40kt southwesterly
low level jet should be the necessary ingredients for scattered
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms beginning later this
afternoon but especially later this evening into the overnight
hours. A majority of high res progs and CAMS suggest this scenario
with initiation somewhere near or northwest of the I-30 Corridor
with this convection propagating ESE through the late evening and
overnight hours. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
will be the main threats but as we have seen the last couple
nights to our north and west, cannot rule out isolated tornadoes
along the leading edge of any bowing line segments that become
cold pool dominate tonight. There will also be a heavy rainfall
threat mainly near but especially north and west of the I-20
Corridor tonight as well as these storms should become prolific
rainfall producers if they are able to cluster enough.

We will likely be left with a remnant boundary and convection to
begin the day Sunday across our southern and/or eastern half but
at least across our west and northwest, we should see a bit of a
break before a much stronger area of lift moves out of the Upper
Red River Valley, poised to impact our region late Sunday into
Sunday Night. This appears to be quite a shortwave and should have
plenty of moisture and instability to work with with SPC having
not upgraded much of our region to an Enhanced Risk for severe
thunderstorms. Most concerned with this becoming a widespread
damaging wind event with large hail initially and more heavy
rainfall. As we talked about for this evening and overnight, we
absolutely cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat associated
with this type of LEWP convection Sunday Evening/Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The parade of upper level disturbances in this nuisance of a
northwest flow aloft type pattern will likely continue into at
least the early part of the upcoming work week but by the middle
of the week, a weakly amplified upper trough will slowly meander
east northeast from the Texas Hill County into the Southern
Plains. This will allow our upper level pattern to transition from
northwest flow aloft to southwest flow and this will continue to
keep at least scattered diurnally driven convection in the
forecast through the end of the work week.

Severe weather potential is too difficult to determine with this
type of pattern with so much depending on propagation of these
weak perturbations, airmass recovery, outflow boundary
progression and degree of instability but at the very least, we
will continue with a strong/severe storm threat, maybe not
widespread like Sunday Night into Monday but at least spotty
through much of the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the 08/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is starting to show some
returns across our far northern zones of southwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma. Expecting this activity to gradually shift
southward into more of the area through the rest of the evening
and into the overnight hours. Short range models are indicating
that these storms will be fairly slow moving. I have included
mention of VCTS and -RA for KSHV, KMLU, KTXK, and KELD where
confidence is a little higher that things could make it there.
Aside from this, some lower clouds are possible tonight that could
bring some MVFR conditions, but overall shouldn`t drop much below
this throughout this TAF period except for any stronger
thunderstorms that impact any terminals. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  73  89 /  30  30  60  60
MLU  74  92  71  86 /  30  40  60  70
DEQ  68  90  67  84 /  70  10  70  50
TXK  72  92  70  85 /  60  20  80  60
ELD  69  91  67  84 /  60  30  70  70
TYR  75  93  72  86 /  20  20  50  50
GGG  73  92  71  86 /  30  30  60  60
LFK  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33