


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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890 FXUS64 KSHV 171733 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Mostly clear skies with above average highs will continue through Friday. - Showers will return to the area on Saturday with some severe weather potential during the afternoon and evening hours. - Briefly cooler conditions will follow this weekend`s system, with temperatures closer to fall-like hinted for later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The continued upper-level ridge will bring another dry day with high temperatures firmly in the 80s. This ridge will begin to decrease in amplitude and progress to the east through the day on Friday, which will be followed by the system being monitored for severe weather on Saturday. A shortwave trough from the Intermountain West is expected to move eastward through portions of the Southern Plains and the Ark-La-Tx during the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. The primary hazard looks to be damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes can`t be ruled out either. Some model solutions display morning convection that would limit destabilization later in the day. If this convection dissipates quickly, or never initiates, the risk of hazards other than damaging winds becomes more likely. Agreement on the timing of the trough`s movement also remains uncertain, with early runs of the HRRR being noticeably ahead of other models that are pushing off direct impacts until the evening hours. While drought conditions have begun to take hold of the region, WPC has outlined portions of the region as being at Marginal Risk for flash and urban flooding with this system on Saturday. At the time of writing, much of the region looks like it will see less that 1" of rain. But rainfall estimates look to get closer to, or possibly exceed, 1" for areas east of I-49 by midday on Sunday. While these totals seem underwhelming, these showers could have heavy rain rates that bring enough water in a short enough time to create localized flooding. This is especially true for more urban areas and low- lying areas. Significantly cooler temperatures will be on the coattails of the outgoing front. Afternoon highs on Sunday look to be in the low to mid 70s generally along and north of I-20, with areas south mostly in the upper 70s. These gorgeous seasonal temperatures will give way to another slight warm up through the week with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the week. Long-range models are also hinting at a weak secondary cold front moving through the Ark-La- Tx early Tuesday morning, but additional rain accumulation with it looks to be slim at this time. /57/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will generally be gradually picking up across the region from now through the morning hours tomorrow as low level moisture increases in advance of a disturbance moving in later tomorrow. Expect this disturbance to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening, but nearly all of that will hold off until just after this TAF period. Nearly all sites are VFR now, although TXK/TYR/GGG/SHV/LFK do have scattered to broken cu with bases as low as 2 to 3 kft. Expect these bases to continue to gradually lift through the rest of the afternoon, although a stray shower this afternoon cannot be completely ruled out at TYR, GGG, and especially LFK. Tonight will start mostly clear to partly cloudy with low clouds spreading in from the south from roughly 10 UTC to 14 UTC. These bases will be mostly MVFR with a brief period of IFR ceilings and a bit of vis reductions most likely around 12 UTC in the vicinity of LFK. These cloud bases will be gradually lifting from mid to late morning on Saturday, although most locations (aside from ELD and MLU) will likely be mainly sub-VFR through the bulk of the morning hours tomorrow. 50 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 70 88 61 / 20 10 70 70 MLU 91 64 90 63 / 10 0 40 90 DEQ 86 65 82 50 / 10 10 80 40 TXK 89 70 87 55 / 10 10 80 60 ELD 88 65 86 55 / 10 0 70 80 TYR 89 69 85 57 / 10 10 60 50 GGG 89 67 86 57 / 20 10 70 60 LFK 90 67 88 62 / 20 0 70 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...50