280
FXUS64 KSHV 031121
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

 - Scattered showers and storms will push east across the
   ArkLaTex through the day today and Friday. Severe weather is
   not expected.

 - Heat will increase this weekend and into next week, with heat
   indices possibly reaching the triple digits, posing a potential
   hazard for extended outdoor activity.

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will resume Sunday and continue
   into next week, particularly east of the I-49 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Despite upper level ridging still being the primary synoptic scale
feature of note, short range high level guidance is indicating
increasing coverage of showers and storms into the day Thursday.
Convection will begin across our northwest early, pushing east and
then southeast into Louisiana through the afternoon, following the
steering pattern suggested by the upper level ridge axis. The 02Z
HRRR favors a fairly progressive push of moisture out of north
central Texas through the morning. Meanwhile, the 00Z 3 km NAM hints
at a southward impulse of moisture out of the Ozarks colliding with
the aforementioned northeastward push of convection across southeast
Oklahoma, making for a potentially more aggressive convective system
making its way southeast from the I-30 to I-20 corridor through the
evening hours. Ultimately, widespread rainfall accumulations of
great significance are not expected, but localized brief heavy
rainfall may be possible in some storms. As of this writing,
organized severe weather is not anticipated, but a few rumbles of
thunder may be expected areawide.

Thursday`s convection looks to diminish by late evening, making for
quiet conditions through the night, followed by a similar diurnal
pattern on Friday. The subsident effects of upper level high
pressure will not be adequate to completely inhibit new convection,
as impulses of moisture ride the upper level flow, tapping into
surface moisture and sufficient daytime heating to easily fire off
new storms. Confidence in coverage and timing is less compared to
today`s storms, but the overall pattern looks similar, beginning in
the northwest by midday and sliding east by southeast through the
afternoon and early evening.

By early this weekend, quiet conditions look to prevail, with an
absence of upper level forcing mechanisms and little in the way of
organized steering. Daytime highs appear less extreme than in recent
model runs, but widespread middle 90s are likely, with some sites
still taking aim at the upper 90s. Heat indices will trend towards
the triple digits, which will need to be taken into consideration
when planning outdoor activity, especially for vulnerable groups
such as young children and the elderly.

Sunday will see convection returning on two fronts: a fresh impulse
of moisture swinging along and north of the I-30 corridor, and
advancing storms across our southern zones through the afternoon,
coming to an end soon after sunset. Thus will the ArkLaTex return to
the classic summertime pattern of afternoon convection across our
southern and eastern zones. Through the first half of the week,
thunderstorm chances look to be greatest to the east of the I-49
corridor, as the upper level high over the Four Corners region
amplifies and extends its reach to our east Texas zones. This will
be accompanied by a continuation of the weekend`s warming trend,
with middle to upper 90s appearing in long range guidance through
the middle of next week, with lows in the 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the 03/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some showers
and thunderstorms moving across our northern zones of southeast
Oklahoma and southern Arkansas this morning, with another area of
some light returns across deep east Texas just to the west of our
region. Satellite imagery is showing some lower clouds, around
3-5k feet being established through much of the region, but
nothing has fallen below this so far this morning. Will probably
see some low clouds throughout the day today as a cu field
develops and rain pushes through the area. Still not enough
confidence to mention anything impacting our terminals aside from
the mention of VCTS at this time. Otherwise, some BR could limit
some visibility towards the end of the period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  92  76 /  30  20  20   0
MLU  94  74  95  74 /  30  20  20   0
DEQ  88  70  90  71 /  40  10  30   0
TXK  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  30   0
ELD  91  72  93  72 /  30  20  20   0
TYR  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  94  75  90  74 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  96  75  91  74 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33