168
FXUS64 KSHV 021153
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

 - Rain will continue to fall across the region overnight and
   through the day on Saturday.

 - There will be a continued chance for flash and urban flooding
   through Saturday, especially in parts of East TX and LA.

 - Relatively cooler temperatures will bring some relief to the
   area. But heat products may be necessary again by the middle
   of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

At the time of writing, showers and thunderstorms continue to
impact most of the western half of the CWA. With the general lack
of wind aloft, these storms will continue to propagate to the
southeast very slowly through the rest of tonight. The loss of
daytime heating has decreased the concern for severe thunderstorm
hazards, but we will still be keeping an eye out for flooding with
the rain overnight. Short-range guidance is suggesting that heavier
rainfall will shift to favor portions of southeast OK and
southwest AR as we get closer to sunrise on Saturday.

Some light showers are expected to continue through the morning
hours tomorrow. This, in combination with the southward
progression of a frontal boundary, will bring some cooler
temperatures to the area. Current high temperature estimations
are mostly in the upper 80s, with a few locations expected to
creep into the low 90s. This should hopefully give the region a
brief break from heat products for the weekend. Even with the
cooler temperatures, diurnal convection will still develop through
the day. Recent HREF runs suggest that convection will develop
along and south of the LA/AR border beginning around midday and
propagating southward. The NBM picked up on this trend, but I
made some adjustments to 21z PoPs to better align with diurnal
convection lingering through the early evening and the marginal D2
ERO. Widespread severe hazards aren`t expected from these
showers, but depending on the mesoscale environment observed
tomorrow, some strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out. Showers will
generally weaken after sunset as they move to the south of the CWA
line.

The relatively cooler temperatures are expected to continue into
early next week, with a shortwave trough possibly bringing more
rain to parts of East TX on Monday. Elsewhere in the country, the
GFS has the persistant high pressure over the Desert Southwest
shifting eastward around the middle of next week. This will bring
a subsidence regime back to the Ark-La-Tx and inhibit any
substantial rain that would help keep us cool. Apart from some
diurnal thunderstorms in our far southeastern zones, we`ll be back
to our typical summer conditions for the rest of the period.

/57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the 02/12Z TAF period, most sites remain VFR to begin the
period but expect some gradual deterioration of cigs/vsbys with
convection through the first half of the period. This will occur
as a slow-moving frontal boundary gradually seeps farther south
across our airspace this morning and through this afternoon with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection looks
to be most prominent across our East TX terminals and eastward
into KSHV/KTXK while lesser coverage is expected toward KELD/KMLU.
For that reason, have generally included VCTS at most sites with
tempo TSRA at all sites other than KELD/KMLU given that the lower
confidence of convection exists farther east. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsby reductions should improve between the 02/18Z-03/00Z
timeframe with convection shifting southward along the advancing
front. Winds will be mostly light and variable this morning before
trending to the N/NE with fropa, averaging around 5 kts through
the end of the period with higher speeds/gusts invof convection.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening due to
the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding, mainly across parts of
East Texas and North Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  72  91  71 /  60  10   0  10
MLU  90  69  91  69 /  40  10   0   0
DEQ  88  64  88  65 /  30   0   0  10
TXK  90  67  91  68 /  40   0   0  10
ELD  88  64  89  65 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  89  72  91  71 /  60  10  10  20
GGG  87  70  90  69 /  70  10   0  10
LFK  91  72  93  71 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19