897
FXUS64 KSHV 251055
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
555 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

 - Heat Advisory was extended through 7 PM Friday evening for all
   of the Four State Region.

 - Additional heat products may be needed for some areas through
   the weekend, but not likely for all as rain chances continue to
   increase on Saturday.

 - Rain chances will decrease, and heat will increase through the
   start of next week as the dome of high pressure aloft returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Despite the ongoing summer heat that has been pretty unrelenting
as of late, rain chances are expected to expand into more of the
region this afternoon as tropical moisture continues to advect
deeper into the central and western portions of the Gulf coast.
With that in mind, temperatures are not expected to be quite as
hot as what we observed yesterday (our hottest day of the year so
far at all major climate locations), but the increasing moisture
will limit the amount of mixing as compared to earlier this week.
Therefore, dew points will remain more elevated so heat indices
are still expected to reach into Heat Advisory territory between
105-109 degrees so did extend heat headlines out through 7 PM this
evening.

Although the Heat Advisory does extend throughout the afternoon,
we should begin to see scattered convection develop in our far
southern zones toward midday and expand further as the afternoon
progresses. However, since widespread coverage is not expected, it
still warrants keeping the Heat Advisory in place during the hours
of peak heating. For areas that do see convection, gusty winds and
heavy downpours are possible with some of the stronger storms so
WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall south
of I-30 with the most likely areas at risk being south of I-20
with PWATs in the 2"+ range. Convective coverage will be similar
on Saturday with the upper-level ridge axis anchored farther east
across the SE CONUS, allowing tropical Gulf moisture to continue
feeding northward into our region on the back side of the ridge.
The Marginal Risk ERO for Saturday doesn`t include quite as much
real estate as today, generally encompassing areas south of I-20.
Rainfall amounts over the next few days should average between a
quarter to a half inch in most areas while isolated totals closer
to an inch or more are certainly possible.

Beyond Saturday, rain chances will begin to drop off once again
while the heat returns in earnest with the upper-level ridge axis
building back westward across the middle of the country. As a
result, heat headlines are almost certain to return with at least
Heat Advisory conditions through the middle of next week and some
indications that our first Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed in
some locations during this early to mid week timeframe. The good
news is this next significant heat wave should be more brief with
the upper ridge shifting farther west of the region by late week
and rain chances gradually returning. Additionally, a rare summer
cool front looks progged to shift into the region by Friday with
more focused convection along the boundary to end the week on a
more pleasant note, if this indeed pans out as models have been
consistently advertising. For now, that is the favored trend as
temperatures should respond accordingly with lower to middle 90s
for highs as we close out the week next Friday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the 25/12z TAF period...VFR conditions across the TAF sites
at this hour. But, low cigs will move into portions of the region
this morning, bringing a few hours of reduced flight categories.
VFR conditions should return afterwards, but widespread convection
is expected to develop during the afternoon/early evening hours
in association with a disturbance off the coast of south
Louisiana. VFR conditions should return by late evening as the
convection is expected to diminish, followed by more low clouds
and reduced flight categories near daybreak tomorrow morning. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Although spotter activation is not expected through this weekend,
thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out over the next days, mainly during the hours of peak afternoon
heating along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  93  77 /  50  20  70  10
MLU  94  76  93  75 /  70  20  70  10
DEQ  96  74  91  73 /  10  10  50  10
TXK  98  77  93  76 /  20  10  60  10
ELD  93  74  91  74 /  40  10  60  10
TYR  97  76  92  75 /  20  20  60  10
GGG  97  76  91  75 /  40  20  70  10
LFK  95  76  92  75 /  60  30  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20