146
FXUS64 KSHV 040623
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
123 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Dry, mild conditions to dominate the region through week`s end.

 - Unsettled weather pattern expected to develop across the region
   this weekend into early next week.

 - Another stretch of dry weather with rising temperatures to
   begin Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The first focus tonight will be on the overall weather pattern
through the middle of next week before addressing the day-to-day
specifics.

The upper-level pattern this morning depicts northwest flow across
the region, driven by a broad trough over the eastern CONUS
associated with a closed low near the Great Lakes. This low and
its parent trough are expected to gradually lift northeastward
through the day, allowing weak ridging to build into the region.
The ridge will remain in place through at least Friday,
maintaining a relatively stable pattern, before a cold front
begins approaching from the north.

This frontal boundary is forecast to slowly progress southward
across the area Saturday into Sunday, eventually pushing clear of
the region to the south late Sunday night into Monday. Looking
into next week, model guidance indicates a deepening trough over
the Pacific Northwest, while a stronger ridge begins to develop
across the southwestern CONUS. This ridge is expected to gradually
expand eastward, influencing our region by the middle of the week.

Day-to-Day Forecast Impacts...First things first, I have added
mention of some patchy fog tonight across portions of Deep East
Texas into Northeast Louisiana, generally near and southeast of a
Lufkin, TX to Monroe, LA line. With weak ridging building
overhead, both today and Friday will feature warm and dry
conditions, with highs climbing into the lower to mid-90s across
much of the region.

As the cold front approaches Friday night, thunderstorm chances
will will return from the north, with activity gradually spreading
southward through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
linger in portions of the area through Monday. Along with the
rainfall potential, noticeably cooler temperatures are expected
from Saturday through Monday, running roughly 5 to 15 degrees
below seasonable averages. By Tuesday and into the latter half of
the week, conditions will shift once again as the aforementioned
ridge begins to build into the region. This will promote a
potential return to hot, mid-summer-like conditions. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Greatest concern through the first half of the TAF period will be
a reduction is VSBY as BR/FG potential across the airspace is
increasing. Local obs across the deep ETX and south-cental LA
terminals and fields suggest that FG is already developing as KIER
is already below a mile. The majority of the airspace should be
mostly cloud free outside of some high level cirrus. Dips to IFR
and LIFR through the overnight is likely, with this theme
continuing through sunrise before the aforementioned BR/FG can
burn off and a theme of mostly SKC/VFR prevails through the
afternoon and early evening. After sunset, an increase in upper
level cirrus above FL200 will build in from the west. Terminal
winds will be light through the period, settling around 5kt or
lower from the S/SW.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  74 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  92  72  94  72 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  91  69  90  66 /   0   0   0  40
TXK  93  74  94  69 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  92  70  93  67 /   0   0   0  30
TYR  92  75  92  72 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  93  73  93  72 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  94  73  93  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53