547
FXUS64 KSHV 060241
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

As of 930 PM CDT, temperatures continue to slowly cool from the
lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Ongoing cloud cover from
upstream activity will moderate temperature minimums into the
mid-to-upper 70s, making for another mild night across the Four
State Region. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, additional forecast and hazard grid adjustments were
not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Warm and muggy/hazy this afternoon with only a light S/SW wind
for most of us with several locales even showing calm. Dew points
are up there in the low to mid 70s and our heat indices are
edging into triple digit "feels-like" territory for a few spots.
Our skies are partly to mostly cloudy and we have lower and upper
decking at this time. Some TCUs with a light peppering of showers
few and far between, likely due to the elevated concentrations of
particulates with the Saharan dust encroachment. The closest
lightning is well north of Little Rock and there are some larger
clusters in W OK.

There is an inverted surface trough over W TX and much of OK and
this breeding ground will persist for new development under the
light W/SW flow aloft with a weak air mass around 1015mb over the
plains. The upper trough will slowly be sliding E/SE in the
coming days ahead of the air mass activity. This will boost our
convective coverage into the weekend, but rising heights aloft for
now us will amount to more heating on the surface in the short term.
Highs will make a nudge toward more low to mid 90s and lows will
see low to mid 70s as the muggies build under this weak dirty
ridging aloft we have right now and through the short term. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We will eventually see enhanced convective coverage for the
weekend, much of which may be nocturnal initially. The overnight
low level jet action sets up over the dust layer and the coming
shifting aloft to W/SW will help with the lift as well. The GFS
and ECMWF both show weak high pressure well to our north this
weekend, and then early next week, a more substantial air mass at
1018/19 mb will move over the plains states and help to focus the
better lift over the Red River Valley and across the ArkLaTex
Sunday into Monday.

So pretty normal motions for late spring really as the storm
track has been to our north for a good while already and we just
left to hover in between the super muggy and cooler and drier
air masses. The good news is that the added clouds associated
with the convection will bring less insolation, and then the
lowering heights aloft will as well along with the changing
directions up stairs will help as well. The WPC depicts these
changes for us with their excessive rainfall forecasts. We see the
Slight Risk settle into our far north early over the weekend and
then persist overhead for us with a Marginal Risk into the new
week on the days 3-5. So, as is typical this time of year, slow
storm motions play the greatest role in these numbers each day.
And increased storm numbers goes right along with that, despite
weakening production in the pattern with descending latitudes.

The WPC days 4 & 5 QPF sport the highest daily totals for us
early next week as the air mass sinks into the muggy Gulf air with
some 1 to 3 inch expectations. The greatest risk for us severe
wise will come this weekend, with the SPC Slight Risk area sinking
closer in each day, still damaging winds primary. Eventually, the
severe threat will circle back around to the isolated flooding
threat as the numbers of players (thunderstorms) on the field
increases. Our temperatures will ease back to more normalized
climatology with the added clouds and rain. Highs will see more
and more 80s by late weekend and perhaps areawide early next week.
Low temps will fall back a handful of degrees with mid to upper
60s and lower 70s in the long term picture. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue areawide this evening through a
portion of the overnight hours Friday, as the scattered cu field
in place across the region is expected to diminish by 01-02Z.
Cirrus cigs will quickly increase across the region from the W by
late this evening through the overnight hours, from deep
convection ongoing across W TX/Srn OK. Considerable uncertainty
exists though as to how far SSE the convection over Srn OK will
build SE into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR before diminishing,
and whether additional convection may redevelop along the residual
bndry that may lay up near or N of the Red River. Given the lack
of confidence in regards to timing late tonight/around or after
daybreak Friday, have not included VCTS for at least the TXK
terminal, and will amend as needed. IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected
to develop by/after 09Z Friday over portions of Deep E TX/Lower
Toledo Bend, and spread N across E TX through daybreak, primarily
affecting the E TX terminals. While brief cigs can not be ruled
out at SHV after 12Z, these cigs should quickly lift/return to VFR
by late morning, with a scattered cu field/cirrus expected for the
afternoon areawide. Light S winds tonight will become SSW 6-10kts
after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  77  96 /  10  20   0   0
MLU  75  93  76  95 /  10  30   0  10
DEQ  69  88  71  90 /  20  30  10  30
TXK  74  91  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  71  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  73  90  75  92 /  10  20   0   0
GGG  73  91  74  93 /  10  20   0   0
LFK  74  94  74  95 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...15