602
FXUS64 KSHV 060535
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1135 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Dry weather dominates: Expect significantly drier conditions
   for the entire week, with no widespread precipitation in the
   forecast for the area.

 - Temperatures will fluctuate, featuring a warm peak on Sunday, a
   cooler start to the week on Monday, followed by another warming
   trend into Thursday, and then cooler for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The main focus for the rest of the night revolves around the final
vestiges of a recent storm system in the form of a few lingering
showers across the eastern half of the forecast area. That being
said, radar is showing these showers, but surface observations are
not supporting that any rainfall is reaching the ground. These
minor chances for showers will continue through the first part of
the night before dry air firmly takes hold. The last thing to
watch for the night is the potential for some fog development
across much of the area with perhaps some dense fog across the
northwest portion of the area. Short- term models are hinting at
one additional chance of some isolated showers across our
southeast zones on Sunday, although confidence is on the lower end
due to some model inconsistency.

Looking ahead, the overall synoptic pattern supports a prolonged
period of dry weather. The WPC is reflecting this with no QPF
across our area for the next 7 days. We will however experience a
roller coaster of temperatures throughout the next week, although
it will be a small roller coaster as the peaks and dips won`t be
that dramatic. After a warming trend for today and Sunday, a cold
front will pass through Sunday night into Monday, ushering in some
cooler conditions for Monday. The brief chill will be short-lived
and another warming trend will commence on Tuesday, peaking on
Thursday with highs reaching the lower 70s across the southern
half of the area. Another cold front will move through the area
Thursday night into Friday which will usher in additional cooler
air next weekend. Remember the old saying, "Climate is what we
expect, weather is what we get."

The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks
align well with this dry trend. Both suggest higher probabilities
of below-normal precipitation to the region. The 6-10 day near-
normal temperatures overall, with a slightly higher chance across
our western zones. I am sure we are all wondering what the
longer-range forecast will bring 19 days from now. Whether it`s
clear skies or a full storm, I just hope everyone is focused on
getting home, and that all the decorative lights are working, just
in case we need to decode a message from the other side. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Latest 00z time height/cross sections along with latest HRRR
output is suggesting the fog development overnight may not be
quite as extreme as earlier runs had predicted. Given that and the
fact that we have a descent mid level cloud deck between 7-10kft
across our airspace attm, have removed much of the IFR VSBYS and
instead, replaced with MVFR VSBYS with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
after midnight through the early to mid morning hours before VFR
conditions return. Not completely confident all terminal sites
will see VSBY restrictions but it does appear that we should lose
the mid level cloud cover closer to sunrise with high clouds
continuing which may be just enough to keep fog development at
bay.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail areawide from mid to late
morning and through the afternoon into the evening hours on Sat.
Look for patchy fog development once again overnight Sat Night
just beyond this 24 hr terminal package.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  61  50  64 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  38  58  45  62 /  10   0   0  20
DEQ  31  54  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  35  58  44  61 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  31  56  42  58 /  10   0   0  10
TYR  39  63  47  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  63  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  66  50  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13