130
FXUS64 KSHV 081822 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Cloud coverage remains heavy this morning as some overrunning
convection has been present on the SHV radar. Mesoanalysis
indicates that surface obs are running about 5 to 10 deg F cooler
this hour when compared to 24 hours ago. At the same time,
reflectivity returns present are within an elevated instability
core, with the surface instability trapped just to the south of
the KPOE radar site, and along the stalled boundary in the same
location. Convective showers are likely through the afternoon,
with PoPs increasing into the evening as a cold front approaches
from the west. Some of that surface instability will attempt to
climb north across East Texas this afternoon, where a marginal
severe threat is located. Main concern through the rest of today
and overnight will be the chance for urban and small stream
flooding due to excessive rainfall across East Texas, and SE
Oklahoma as the boundary approaches.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

LIFR/IFR cigs with reduced vsbys in -DZ will linger across the
region through much if not all of the 18Z TAF period, near and N
of a stationary front that lingers from Deep E TX across Cntrl and
NE LA. MVFR cigs may return for at least a portion of the
afternoon at LFK/MLU as the front tries to slowly retreat to the
WNW. A cluster of -SHRA with embedded convection continues to
linger while slowly shifting N across extreme NE TX/SW AR, and
will affect TXK through 20-21Z before ending, although additional
scattered -SHRA should redevelop by mid and late afternoon along
and N of the front and shift N across the region through the
evening/overnight hours. Have continues VCSH/-SHRA mention at all
terminals by late afternoon and especially after 00Z, with some
embedded thunder possible. Vsby reductions are likely as well,
with the convection slowly marching E along a secondary weak cold
front that will eventually become stationary by Saturday afternoon
from SW AR into extreme NW LA/Deep E TX. Should see some cig
improvement by/after 12Z at TYR as MVFR cigs return, but IFR cigs
will persist elsewhere through the end of the TAF period before
some improvement is noted with the diminishing convection. ENE
winds 7-10kts this afternoon will diminish to 5kts or less after
00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  67  74  65 /  50  80  70  60
MLU  73  68  75  67 /  40  60  70  80
DEQ  66  60  70  50 /  70  90  70  30
TXK  70  62  72  58 /  50  80  70  40
ELD  70  62  72  60 /  40  70  70  70
TYR  73  60  71  58 /  70  90  30  30
GGG  72  63  71  59 /  50  80  50  40
LFK  79  66  75  64 /  60  80  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
AVIATION...15