169
FXUS64 KSHV 220410
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Temperatures are trending a little better this evening than what
we saw yesterday evening. As such, not much in the way of changes
to the inherited forecast for tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in
effect for portions of southwest Arkansas tonight as temperatures
will near or drop below the freezing mark. In addition, frost will
be possible in areas that are not included in the Freeze Warning,
so sensitive plants should be cared for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The coolest temperatures of the season so far will arrive to the
Four State region tonight. A weak frontal boundary arriving this
evening will reinforce/maintain enough cold air advection for more
chances of freezing temperatures further into southwest Arkansas.
Short term guidance highlights a greater than 30 percent chance
of freezing temperatures along I-30 east of Hope, AR and through
Prescott, AR along with a portion of the Red River Valley east of
Texarkana. By tomorrow night, northerly winds will completely wane
before southerly winds return, allowing for yet another chance of
freezing temperatures tomorrow night with temperature maximums
across the area slightly below normal in the 60s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Dry and near-seasonable conditions will continue through the rest
of the weekend before warmer and wetter weather returns early next
week. This is due to large-scale ridging, emerging from the
Intermountain West, that weakens/flattens across the area by
Sunday, while surface ridging shifts east of the Mississippi River
valley allowing for more robust southerly winds. Subsequent
moisture advection will boost temperature maximums/minimums from
near-normal to well above normal with upper 70s/lower 80s and low-
to-mid 60s, respectively. By next Tuesday, the next chance of
precipitation will begin to arrive, with long range guidance
suggesting zonal flow overrunning a returning warm frontal
boundary for lingering precipitation chances through the middle of
the week. There are increasing chances for the following cold
frontal boundary to clear most of the area by Thanksgiving Day for
a return to near-normal conditions areawide. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

No aviation concerns to speak of through the upcoming TAF period.
Look for some increasing thin cirrus by late afternoon or evening
on Friday. Northwest winds will generally remain below 10kts
through the night and through the day Friday as well. VFR
conditions will prevail.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  41  63  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  37  60  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  33  62  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  37  62  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  31  60  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  40  64  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  38  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for ARZ059>061-071>073.

LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13