326
FXUS64 KSHV 040527
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon features broad troughing
over much of the Central and Western CONUS, with ridging over the
Eastern US. Near the surface, high pressure is centered near
Delmarva, with ridge influence extending west/southwest into the
OH/TN Valley and Deep South. Several areas of low pressure exist
west of this ridge, one over the Midwest and another over the
western Great Lakes, with a cold frontal boundary extending from
these areas S/SW into the Southern Plains.

Humid and hot conditions are present over the Four State Region
this afternoon as southerly flow increases along the western
periphery of the surface ridge ahead of the cold frontal boundary.
While a few showers are developing near and ahead of the frontal
boundary over the Southern Plains at the time of this writing,
expect development to quickly increase later this afternoon and
evening. Convective mode is largely expected to be linear, or
quickly trend that way into the evening hours, aided by a
shortwave trough near the OK/TX border. The threat for severe
weather will exist tonight, mainly near the I-30 corridor where
stronger forcing for ascent will reside, amidst some lingering
instability after dark. As the line of convection continues to
push south/southeast overnight, it will weaken, limiting the
severe weather threat into Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the front is expected to stall/weaken, with ridging
attempting to build in the mid and upper levels. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to linger in the morning, with
daytime heating possibly aiding in coverage some into the
afternoon, however, it will be battling at least some degree of
increasing subsidence aloft. No real change in airmass through the
day will result in another hot and humid afternoon across the CWA.

Wednesday night, the frontal boundary is expected to lift slightly
north as a warm front. Convective activity appears minimal,
however, upstream sfc cyclogenesis will likely be taking place
near the OK panhandle.

Kovacik

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The long term forecast period will feature a ridge of high
pressure in the mid and upper levels over northern Mexico and
Texas/LA, with SW flow noted to its north as troughing develops
along the West Coast. This will set up a tricky pattern over the
Four State Region, as convective development will be tied to the
placement of sfc frontal features in response to the evolving
upper level patter. Given current model guidance, expect the storm
track to reside across far northern zones of NE TX, SE OK, and SW
AR, where forcing along the stalling warm front and daytime
heating will work in tandem to produce largely diurnally driven
convection, some of which could be strong to severe. The same
general pattern will hold in place for Friday, with the highest
chance of convection/rain across the far north, but again
sensitive to the exact positioning of the upper level ridge and SW
flow.

By the weekend, the flow will begin to transition more NW in the
mid and upper levels and the ridge retrogrades slightly west. This
will set up yet another tricky pattern, making the area more prone
to MCSs. There currently seems to be enough agreement amongst the
model guidance in this happening later in the day on Saturday and
possibly into Sunday morning. NW flow aloft is likely to keep
conditions unsettled into early next week.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A frontal boundary moving east across the region will allow for
VCTS conditions across mainly TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV terminals through
05/10Z. Convection is forecast to diminish through the remainder
of the overnight hours before re-devoloping across these same
areas during the late morning into early afternoon hours. MVFR
ceilings to develop across TYR/GGG near daybreak with conditions
improving by mid-morning. Otherwise, sw winds to increase to 5 to
10 knots today, becoming light and variable after 05/00Z. /05/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  75  93  75 /  20  10  10   0
MLU  91  73  92  74 /  10   0  20   0
DEQ  85  70  87  69 /  40   0  20   0
TXK  89  73  91  74 /  30   0  20   0
ELD  90  70  91  71 /  10   0  20   0
TYR  87  73  89  74 /  40   0  10   0
GGG  88  72  90  72 /  30  10  20   0
LFK  90  72  92  73 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05