637
FXUS64 KSHV 031207
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
707 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The early morning sfc analysis indicates that our weak frontal
bndry remains stationary across NCntrl and NE TX to along the
AR/LA border, roughly from just S of a TRL/JDD, to N of a JXI, to
along the AR/LA border as of 08Z, although recent sfc obs loops
depict that this bndry may have begun to slowly lift back up to
the NNW. A 40kt Srly LLJ has resulted in weak overrunning atop
this shallow air mass along the I-30 corridor, which should allow
for a continued slow NNW retreat of this bndry, until deep
elevated convection which has developed over the Big Country of
WCntrl TX into the middle Red River Valley builds farther E in
advance of the next shortwave perturbation in the SW flow aloft
now entering far W TX. As this piece of energy lifts NE, the
various hi-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the ongoing
convection will continue to build E along the Red River Valley
into SE OK/extreme NE TX along and just N of the front, before
building into portions of adjacent SW AR. These storms should
remain mostly elevated in nature, with large hail the main threat
given the cooler temps aloft and steep H700-500 lapse rates of 7-8
C/km. Have added severe mention to the forecast this morning for
areas NW of the I-30 corridor, with locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

This convection should also help to reinforce the sfc bndry in
place through the afternoon, while the attendant H925-850 trough
continues to lift N into Srn/Ern OK into NW AR by afternoon.
Strong forcing should persist atop the front as the Srly LLJ
persists during peak heating, with additional scattered convection
developing during the afternoon, with the severe threat
potentially developing farther S across more of E TX/NW LA/extreme
Srn AR where ample shear and sfc based instability will reside.
Any severe threat may persist through much of the evening given
the slow nature of any bndry lyr stabilization, and the potential
for additional frontal convergence that may develop along the Srly
LLJ axis.

The various short term progs suggest that the convection should
eventually weaken later this evening through at least a portion of
the overnight hours as the deeper/more elevated convection becomes
focused closer to the H925-850 trough over Srn/Ern OK into NW AR,
which would allow for another slow NW retreat of the sfc front out
of extreme NE TX into SE OK/Wrn AR. Thus, the severe/heavy
rainfall threat will become focused more along and NW of the I-30
corridor of NE TX/SW AR Friday afternoon, as large scale ascent
begins to increase ahead of the next upper speed max that will
eject NE across W TX. Thus, this prolonged severe and heavy
rainfall threat should persist over these areas Friday night
through at least the first half of the day Saturday, before a
piece of the Desert SW closed low begins to lift NE into NW TX
Saturday afternoon, before becoming absorbed into the digging
longwave trough through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
At this time, no changes were made to the existing Flood Watch, as
the I-30 corridor counties in NE TX should see the potential for
flooding increase Friday, although some Swd expansion of the Watch
can not be ruled out closer to the I-20 corridor depending on
rainfall totals over the next 24 hrs, and where any training is
expected to develop Friday. A Wind Advisory may also be needed
Friday over portions of Deep E TX/N LA, Srn AR as some of the
stronger winds of the Srly LLJ may mix down ahead of any
developing convection to the WNW.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The severe weather threat should ramp up across Extreme Ern
TX/much of Srn AR and N LA Saturday across the broad warm sector,
as the ejecting trough takes on a negative tilt as it lifts NE
into N TX and the Middle Red River Valley. The medium range progs
remain in reasonable agreement with this ejecting trough
reinforcing the sfc front E as a cold front, allowing cooler and
drier air to spill E into the region Saturday night. Thus, the
heavy rainfall threat should end over much of the Flood Watch area
by Saturday evening, with the potential that the Watch can be
cancelled early. However, additional rainfall amounts today
through Saturday night of 3-6+ inches are still possible across
much of the Watch area, which could result in flash flooding. With
the ejecting trough becoming absorbed into the deepening longwave
trough from the Great Lakes into the MS Valley, scattered -SHRA
could linger through Sunday morning from Lower Toledo Bend Country
into N LA, before exiting the region by afternoon. Much cooler and
drier conditions will continue to spill SE in wake of the cold
fropa/upper trough passage Sunday, with below normal temps
persisting into the start of the new work week. Patchy frost
remains possible Sunday night NW of the I-30 corridor as sfc
ridging settles into the region as the sky clears, with Srly low
level winds returning by Tuesday on the backside of the sfc ridge,
thus resulting in a warming trend through the remainder of the
long term period. Attm, the Gulf will remain shut off, as a dry NW
flow will persist through the remainder of the week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR/MVFR for most with MVFR dvlpg
over the next few hrs with some VCSH. We will see cigs lift back
to VFR with heating as winds gust again from the S/SE8-14KTG22-28KT
with the upper trough and approaching cold front looking to drum
up another round of mid/late day convection. Coverage today looks
isolated at LA sites and scattered again for our TX/AR terminals.
We are still looking at a third and fourth attempt with convection
before our fropa late Sat aftn/eve. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Spotter activation will be needed today and this evening across
East TX, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest AR, and Northwest LA for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  88  71 /  50  30  50  70
MLU  90  73  89  74 /  30  20  40  40
DEQ  67  61  78  59 / 100  80 100 100
TXK  76  69  84  68 /  80  70  90 100
ELD  84  70  87  70 /  70  50  60  70
TYR  83  70  83  65 /  50  50  90 100
GGG  84  72  85  67 /  50  40  70  90
LFK  87  73  87  71 /  30  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24