299
FXUS64 KSHV 232205
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
405 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Other than a few passing high cirrus, it has been another quiet
sunny day across the region.  However, southerly winds have
returned, as surface high pressure has shifted east of the region.
This has resulted in warmer conditions across the area, with
highs expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s this
afternoon. Southerly winds will also produce warmer temperatures
tonight, with lows generally in the 40s areawide.

Clouds will be on the increase on Sunday, but we should still some
sunshine and continued dry conditions. With southerly winds
remaining in place, the warming trend will continue despite the
increased cloud cover. Afternoon highs will range from the mid to
upper 70s, with a few isolated 80 degree readings across East
Texas and Western Louisiana. A developing sfc cyclogenesis across
the Central Plains will yield an increase in southerly flow across
the area, which will make for some breezy conditions. Sustained
winds should stay below the 20 mph Wind Advisory threshold, but
gusts up to 25 mph will be likely. Dry conditions will continue
into Sunday night, with overnight temps only falling into the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

/20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The aforementioned developing sfc low in the Central Plains will
dive southward towards the region late Sunday, dragging a cold
front into the area on Monday. Despite the southerly flow ahead of
the front, deep layer moisture will be limited. But, models
continue to agree on some precip developing across our eastern
zones, which is basically portions of South-Central Arkansas and
Northeast/Central Louisiana. Cooler and more seasonal temps will
return late Monday into Tuesday in wake of the front. However,
this will be short-lived, as the front will return northward as a
warm front on Wednesday, with high temps generally climbing back
into the 70s. Rain chances will also return by Wednesday night and
increase in coverage on Thursday, as an upper trough will swing
across the Plains, bringing another cold front across the region
on Thanksgiving Day. Expect dry conditions and cooler temps to
return in wake of this front, with portions of the region seeing
morning lows near or below freezing again by the end of the work
week.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Some thin cirrus across our airspace attm and there could be some
more of that later tonight through at least sunrise on Sunday as
well. Pressure gradient increasing across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley on Sunday and that will likely result in
the return of low level moisture to our airspace, especially the
west and northwest half. Attm, it does not appear that MVFR
ceilings will be probable during the day Sunday but could
definitely see increasing low VFR ceiling heights before ceilings
begin thinning during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Look for
south to southeast winds near 10kts or less overnight with SE to
SSW winds increasing to near 10-15kts with gusts upwards of 25kts
across mainly our NE TX terminals by late morning and through the
afternoon hours.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  78  64  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  39  76  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  42  74  58  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  48  76  62  74 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  41  75  59  76 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  53  78  64  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  78  63  76 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  80  63  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13