993
FXUS64 KSHV 060451
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Increased rain chances with thunderstorms are expected this
   weekend. Those with outdoor activities scheduled should plan
   accordingly. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

 - Periods of locally heavy rainfall through the weekend will
   bring a localized flooding threat, particularly along and
   northwest of the Interstate 49 corridor. Remember, turn around,
   don`t drown!

 - Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week
   should be near or above 100 degrees. Summertime heat safety
   plans should be reviewed and readied.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A broad upper-level low across west Texas and a broad upper-level
ridge across the northern Gulf of America to maintain a southwest
flow pattern across the ArkLaTex through the weekend. A surface
boundary along with a slug of increased moisture, driving dewpoint
values into the mid 70s, to surge north across the region on
Saturday triggering widespread convection during the time of peak
heating. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some storms.
Additionally, a disturbance within the upper-flow translating
east across east and northeast Texas could generate convection
ahead of the gulf sourced boundary allowing for the potential for
a few strong storms along and north of I-20 across mainly north
Louisiana into south Arkansas during the evening hours.

Southwest flow to persist into Sunday maintaining an unsettled
weather pattern across the ArkLaTex with diurnally driven
convection again expected.

By Sunday night, however, upper-level ridging in the eastern Gulf
to build west, eventually becoming firmly established across the
southern CONUS through the remainder of the forecast period ending
Friday. Subsidence associated with the ridge will lead to drier
conditions with high temperatures soaring into the mid 90s from
mid to late week. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening into a portion of the
overnight hours, although various CU/AC/cirrus cigs will linger as
isolated to scattered convection continues to develop and shift
NNW across portions of Wrn LA and much of E TX. Have maintained
VCSH for the E TX terminals this evening with tempo thunder
mention at LFK and TYR, before MVFR cigs develop after 07Z over E
TX/NCntrl LA and gradually lower to IFR by or before daybreak
Saturday areawide. Cigs will slowly lift and become MVFR by mid to
late morning, although VFR cigs will not return until midday or
early afternoon as scattered convection again develops through the
morning across E TX/adjacent SW AR, and areawide during the
afternoon. Some thunder may accompany the scattered SHRA
development, but have prevailed VCSH for the terminals for now as
thunder should be isolated again, with tempo thunder mention more
appropriate which can be added in later TAF issuances once
timing/wind/vsby impacts are better known. This convection should
eventually diminish by mid and late evening, before low MVFR/IFR
cigs return late. Light ESE winds tonight will become SE 5-7kts
after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  86  73  88 /  10  50  50  60
MLU  74  87  74  87 /  10  70  20  80
DEQ  70  82  70  82 /  30  90  80  80
TXK  72  86  72  86 /  20  60  50  80
ELD  72  84  72  85 /  10  50  30  80
TYR  72  85  73  87 /  60  70  30  50
GGG  72  86  72  89 /  30  60  40  70
LFK  72  86  73  89 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15