374
FXUS64 KSHV 262011
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
311 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Partly cloudy skies this mid afternoon with air temps in the mid
80s for most with a couple upper 80s along I-49 in LA. The wind
has picked up now west of I-49 and 5KT or less to the east. We
even see some gustiness over our deep E TX Counties. The SPC did
scale back a bit on the Slight Risk late this morning, but has
just updated again to expand the Slight Risk down the Red River
Valley to include Texarkana now and more of SW AR on the remaining
day one outlook with the good CAPE in place, while leaving the
Marginal and the General across more of E TX. We are still looking
for some damaging wind primarily as the towers build into
scattered thunderstorms during the remaining daylight. The latest
HRRR continues to focus the bulk of convection north of the Red
River into the early evening and shifting a percolation of showers
and isolated thunderstorms ongoing across south AR until well
after midnight. This will be it for a while as we trend a little
warmer and drier to unfold during Sunday and into the start the
new week. So upper 80s are likely to become a little more
widespread, if not a few more sites reaching that 90 degree mark.
Lows again tomorrow night will see mid to upper 60s as the ridging
builds over Mexico and expands out over the western Gulf of
America through the short term and early long. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Both the GFS and the ECMWF build the upper ridge and hold around
590dam to start the new work week and this will effectively suppress
our rain chances through Tuesday as temps continue to warm
slightly. Meanwhile, the deep synoptic trough offshore of the
west coast will edge a deep core of 548dam over CA/NV early in the
week that will fill and drift across the Four Corners. The light
NW flow we have seen will back with deepening SW flow and slowly
edge our next system eastward by midweek. The ECMWF is a little
more liberal with light QPF arriving during early Wednesday and
the GFS focuses on the our I-30 corridor by noon, expanding S and
E late day and especially overnight. This will be when we see our
highest pops, which will linger into Thursday. So we will see a
wet end to a wet month and kick off May with ongoing convection.
The WPC has expanded the Slight and Marginal ERO`s during the same
time as we turn the page on the calendar. As they have bumped
totals for much of area during mid to late week with the days 1-5
now sporting some better than 3 inch amounts along and north of
our I-30 corridor. It is now just our far eastern Parishes with
less than one inch expected. So this will help keep back the
drought monitor for a while longer. And perhaps more as the CPC 8
to 14 day outlook trends us back a little closer to average temps
and a little above on rainfall for the first week or two into May.
/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Cu cigs have developed over much of the region as of midday, and
should gradually scatter out by midafternoon beneath the cirrus
canopy spilling ESE along/N of the I-20 corridor from the ongoing
MCS over the Middle Red River Valley. Scattered convection may
develop by or just before 00Z over portions of extreme NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR, along a stationary front and ahead of the parent upper
trough as it ejects ENE across Ern OK/Wrn AR, possibly affecting
the TXK/ELD terminals. Have delayed VCTS mention until this time
frame for these terminals and dropped mention elsewhere, as
confidence remains low in convection developing as far S as I-20.
While some cu and elevated convective debris should linger across
SW AR, the cu field should diminish elsewhere, with low MVFR/IFR
cigs developing by/after 09Z Sunday over Deep E TX, which should
advance N into much of E TX by daybreak. Low MVFR cigs may also
develop by/after daybreak Sunday over SE OK/portions of SW AR near
and N of the stationary front, which may be reinforced back S from
the convection that develops across SE OK/Wrn AR this
evening/overnight. Slow improvement in cigs is expected by the end
of the 18Z TAF period, with VFR conditions returning by
midday/early afternoon Sunday. SSE winds 4-8kts this afternoon
will become SSE 5kts or less/Lt Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and tonight
over Southeast Oklahoma, portions of extreme Northeast Texas, and
Southwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  89  69  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  68  89  67  88 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  62  85  64  85 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  66  88  67  89 /  50  10   0   0
ELD  63  88  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  65  86  69  86 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  87  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  65  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...15