748
FXUS64 KSHV 081131
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
531 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Cloudy skies with mostly low clouds, but the rain clouds and
showers are lifting into deep east TX now, and will continue to
bloom northward as the warm front is starting to make a move along
the Gulf coast. Most of the Four-State area is ranging in the 60s
with a little room above our dew points. Some patchy fog is
showing up in various locales. The warmer lower 70s lie right
along our southern tier with Lufkin at 74 and Alexandria at 71.

Our winds are E/NE right now and will continue from the E all day
and into tonight keeping the front over our southern tier. Most of
our area highs today will settle in the mid to upper 70s, which
sounds good and yet is still a good 5 degrees above average.
Showers will becoming widespread in the short term with the
convection increasing overnight as the upper low core rotates
through the long wave. The SPC has a marginal risk for severe in
our TX counties today, and then we are general risk for the
weekend.

In addition, Hurricane Rafael is concentrating tropical
pwats into the north central Gulf with the pattern linking QPF
signals over the next day or so. The WPC day 1 ERO is a slight
risk for our TX/OK counties and marginal for western AR/LA. Their
day 1 QPF values are better than an inch west of I-49 and then
shifting the focus from deep east TX, into our Parishes and SE AR
for the day 2. The day 2 ERO is slight again, but from Lufkin to
Monroe on Saturday. So all in all, more good drought busting news
for much of the area with some better than 2 inch amounts by the
end of the short term period as the warm front lifts quickly
northward on Saturday, but with the cool front right on it`s
heels, bringing back drier dew points from the NW in the early
long term and driving the rain areas eastward into the delta.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Much of the QPF signal for us decreases by late Saturday as the
core upper low moves from NM into NB by sundown. So rainfall
amounts for us will taper off to trace to tenth amounts west, and
still clearing heavier elements out of the Parishes until around
midnight Sunday morning. Meanwhile, Rafael`s NHC track indicates
weakening by essentially wrapping in drier air, while slowly
meandering in the central Gulf churning up cooler waters, then
finally back into the SW Gulf early next week as a nice air mass
drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes at 1024mb, extending down
the MS River Valley, and driving the cool front well offshore.

So our early to midweek period will be dry if you like the GFS,
but the ECMWF drums up some more light QPF for midweek as another
low lifts by in the westerlies far to our north. And here is where
things are different with the GFS sporting an open wave over a
weak surface low in the midWest, but the ECMWF has a closed core
low over a deeper surface low lifting into the midWest. So for now
we will continue with slight chance wording until better
agreement can be realized.

Otherwise, our temperatures this week will be continuing in the
70s for highs and 50s for lows this coming work week. And then
late week, another 1024mb high is modeled to be over the Plains
with the GFS by midnight Thursday morning. And the ECMWF is
similar, but still clearing the deeper core low out of the Great
Lakes with moisture clearing out of our Parishes should it
materialize. Then slightly cooler highs will finally see average
numbers to wrap up the week on Friday. Lows will drop back down
into the 40s briefly. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A frontal boundary moving across the region will allow for
increased convection across the region today through the overnight
hours across the entire ArkLaTex. VCTS conditions can be expected
after 08/17Z, becoming -TSRA from 09/03Z onward. Otherwise, LIFR
conditions this morning to possibly become MVFR this afternoon,
again becoming LIFR overnight. northeast winds 5 to 10 knots
today to become east at 5 knots tonight. Could see winds becoming
northeast behind the front across TYR/GGG by 09/12Z. /05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  67  74  65 /  60  70  70  60
MLU  80  68  75  67 /  40  60  70  80
DEQ  68  60  70  50 /  60  90  70  30
TXK  71  62  72  58 /  50  80  70  40
ELD  71  62  72  60 /  60  80  80  70
TYR  75  60  71  58 /  70  90  40  30
GGG  76  63  71  59 /  60  80  60  40
LFK  81  66  75  64 /  60  90  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05