193
FXUS64 KSHV 212339
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will persist south of I-20 this
   evening and overnight, continuing tomorrow for our southern
   zones.

 - This weekend will see a break from the rain, accompanied by a
   return to highs in the mid to upper 90s.

 - Another weather system early next week will bring more storms to
   the area and some relief from the heat for our northern zones.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today`s conditions are shaping up very similarly to yesterday`s,
except with somewhat less storm activity as we approach midday. A
slow-miving frontal boundary is nudging its way southward across the
ArkLaTex. As of this writing, the boundary is situated roughly
along the Interstate 20 corridor and moving very little. Some
remnant showers from this morning`s convection are pushing south
through deep east Texas. Between boundary-driven forcing, diurnal
heating, and outflow-driven convection, expect additional showers
and storms through the afternoon and evening for areas south of
the front, which are again outlooked in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.

While the boundary remains present across the southern zones of the
ArkLaTex, convection will be slow to drop off entirely across the
southernmost reaches of deep east Texas and the Toledo Bend
country, even with the loss of daytime heating after sunset.
Storms should decrease in intensity into the overnight hours, but
look to continue through the night. Storms looks to continue into
the day tomorrow, generally south of US-84, before the front
finally clears the ArkLaTex late in the day Friday, with weather
conditions becoming quiet Friday evening and overnight into
Saturday to kick off the weekend.

With the departure of the boundary by the end of the work week, the
weekend ahead looks to be quieter by comparison, with the only
weather chances worth mentioning being the possibility of being
clipped by isolated showers across the Davy Crockett National
Forest. This quiet will, however, be accompanied by temperatures
warming back into the upper 90s under abundant sunshine. The hint
of relief will be that the drier airmass in the wake of the
frontal passage should keep humidity in check, and it is not
looking like it should be necessary to issue any heat products. A
developing system advancing southward on northwest flow aloft
looks to swing another front into the ArkLaTex early next week,
kicking up more storms by the early to middle phases of next week
and maybe making a more substantial dent in the heat towards the
end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the 22/00z TAF update...Showers and thunderstorms have really
started to come down this evening across the region. I left some
mention of VCTS in for KLFK, and there could be some VCTS for
KMLU, but overall trends indicate the activity should be coming to
an end and VFR conditions should return and prevail throughout
the rest of this TAF period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  70  95  70  96 /  10  10   0  10
DEQ  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  94  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  72  95  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  73  92  71  95 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33