970
FXUS64 KSHV 240708
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
208 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The extension of the Heat Advisory for today still looks good with
afternoon heat indices expected to max out between 105 and 109
degrees. Otherwise, key features are still in place today for
isolated to scattered, diurnally driven convection once again
today with perhaps a slight uptick in storm coverage this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

Upper ridging remains anchored across the Mid Atlantic States with
the ridge axis extending west southwest through the Tenn Valley
and into the Ozarks of Western AR. The weakness to this ridging
is along the southwest flank where weak upper forcing is present
across much of our region. The combination of daytime heading, and
plentiful moisture with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will combine
to produce this isolated to scattered convection that will
continue into the evening hours before dissipating late tonight.
The upper ridge begins to retrograde westward into Wednesday,
into the Tenn Valley by the end of the day. The impacts of this
ridge should result in more in the way of isolated convection
across our northeast half with chance pops delegated to our
southwest third.

Persistence is the best rule of thumb with fcst temps so did not
stray far from NBM temps through the short term.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Through the remainder of the work week, we will continue to see
the effects of the retrograding upper ridge axis across the
northern part of our region but the strength of this ridging does
weaken slightly. Also of note is an inverted upper trough that
works it way northward across the Florida Peninsula and into
Alabama and Georgia by the upcoming weekend. Our far eastern
zones will be in close enough proximity to this increased forcing
to result in at least slight chance pops across our eastern third
on Saturday and our southeast 2/3ds for Sunday. Until then, look
for very little change in our temperatures through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend.

Assuming this remnant inverted trough tries to retrograde very
slowly westward into early next week, this could result in a
slight uptick in pops areawide Monday into Tuesday of next week.
Deterministic progs are hinting at this and so is the NBM
concerning our pop forecast so didn`t stray far from model temps
or pops early next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, little change in our current pattern
with some MVFR cigs/vsby 12-15Z, mainly for our TX terminals.
Light wind less than 5KT will vary, but could gust near downpours.
We are expecting some isold TS late as this activity is progged
along our I-49 corridor from KSHV to KTXK around 00Z briefly. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
MLU  95  75  95  75 /  30  20  20  20
DEQ  93  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  97  75  96  75 /  30  20  20  20
ELD  95  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  20
TYR  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  30  20
GGG  93  73  93  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  93  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ097-112-126-138-151>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24