913
FXUS64 KSHV 062024
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
324 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - Heat Advisory issuance will continue areawide through Labor
   Day as heat becomes more widespread.

 - Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
   persist through most of this week.

 - Chances are increasing for a weather pattern change that
   delivers cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Ridging continues to shift further southwest into the Lower
Intermountain West, stretching into the southern Great Plains
today. This ridge axis will continue to elongate over the next
three days aloft. Until then, a slow-moving frontal boundary will
continue to drift across the Mid-South to reach the Four State
Region by Monday, producing some compressional heating during the
afternoon. This will maximize and expand the hazardous heat threat
through Labor Day, and a Heat Advisory has been issued as a
result.

Quasi-zonal flow will continue underneath this ridge, which will
continue to steer disturbances westward, and combined with lower
geopotential heights/weaker atmospheric subsidence, convective
rounds will develop inheriting a westward propagation through the
next several days. The convection that does develop will still
follow a diurnal pattern with the best chances of rain south of
the I-20 corridor under less inhibition from ridging to the north.
Variations in the intensity of the waves of vorticity advected
will drive the intensity of convection each day this week. Medium-
range guidance suggests a gradual cooldown by the middle of the
week due to another round of vorticity arrives from a westwardly
propagating wave to induce better chances of rain by the end of
the week. Long-range guidance suggests a pattern change by the end
of this week (temperature maximums likely cooler in the low-to-
mid 90s) as the aforementioned ridge finally breaks down,
bifurcated by troughing with an attendant frontal boundary that is
expected to arrive later next weekend with more widespread rain
chances. That said, resulting WPC QPF Day 1-7 values still
reflect an overall southerly precipitation distribution with 0.01
to 0.25 inch rainfall totals likely areawide and 0.25-0.50 inch
totals more likely to the south where any additional convection
can form. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the 06/18z TAF period...VFR conditions currently across the
region with some developing afternoon CU. Models continue to
suggest some convection will develop across Arkansas and push into
portions of the region by this afternoon into the early evening
hours. The sites with the best chance of seeing precip will be
KELD/KTXK in South Arkansas and KSHV/KMLU in North Louisiana.
However, only included VCTS as chances remain slight, so will
amend later if needed. Otherwise, expect passing high clouds over
the region in wake of the afternoon CU. Also, there is a chance
for some low clouds and patchy fog at KLFK around daybreak. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  99  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  77 101  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  72 101  71 100 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  76  99  75  99 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  74 101  72 100 /  20  10  10   0
TYR  76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  75 100  75 100 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  74  95  74  94 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-012>014-
     019-021-022.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20