674
FXUS64 KSHV 221807
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet morning across the Four State Region as high pressure remains
dominate. Radiational cooling has allowed for area temperatures to
fall into the upper 30`s and low to mid 40`s. Nonetheless, there
still remains a few more hours for minT`s to hit their full
potential. At the same time, a backdooring cold front continues to
drift NE to SW across the local zones, with a shallow layer of 925mb
cold air advection trailing as depicted on mesoanalysis. This
layer, though currently tied up across the Ouachita`s, will slowly
filter into the region through the mid to late morning. This
should support afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler when
compared to yesterday, or fairly similar. That being said, and
after evaluating the over-performing highs on Thursday, elected to
bump afternoon maxT`s a few degrees from the base NBM output
citing local urban influence, along with clear skies and calmer
winds. It is completely possible that this was ambitious thinking
and the CAA could keep us milder, but if trends look similar to
yesterday, it would not be at all surprising to see temperatures
bumped a degree or two with the mid morning update.

By sunset, and through the overnight period, don`t anticipate
much of a difference as cooler and milder temperatures will
prevail. Surface winds will begin to flip however, becoming more
southerly through Saturday. Naturally this, along with generally
clear skies and diurnal max heating, temperatures will begin to
rebound into the low and mid 70`s. Bottom line, it should be a
beautiful weekend ahead of rain chances returning through portions
of the long term period.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

As high pressure exits east by late Sunday and into Monday, surface
winds will become more south dominate as a tighter pressure gradient
evolves across central and east Texas. Aloft, mid level troughing
across the Rockies will help initiate a surface low that will
quickly advance across the Plains and enter the upper Midwest by
Monday AM. This system will string a cold front across the Four
State Region through the day on Monday. How quickly the energy
associated with the boundary cuts across the region, will dictate
how much support there will be for showers and or thunderstorms. For
now, confidence remains limited on overall coverage as the
deterministic output quickly races the boundary across the region
prior to any supportive instability fully developing. Therefore, if
any portions of the Four State Region see rain come late Monday, it
would look to be more isolated to areas east of I-49 at this time.

Long range solutions do point to additional rain chances as far as
D6 and D7 of the package. This looks to stem from another synoptic
set-up where just enough lift and forcing is present to initiate some
degree of cyclogenesis across Rockies, before the energy aloft
becomes stretched and elongated across north Texas. This is then
advertised to move across the local area, dragging a cold front with
it, and returning PoPs. There does appear to be some general
agreement across the deterministic solutions this morning for this
outcome, but given the timing, this will just be something to keep
tabs on through the next few days.

Beyond the weather features of the long range, daily temperatures
will gradually climb through Monday, with the chance that low 80`s
could return ahead of the aforementioned Monday frontal passage.
Again, speed and timing of the front will be the main two factors on
whether or not this verifies. Temps will respond to the frontal
passage by decreasing a few degrees into Tuesday before warming once
more by Wednesday. Again though, another frontal passage and rain
chances by Thursday looks to slice temps back down a few degrees
by the end of the week.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

For the 22/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with northerly winds slackening after 23/00Z. Light
southerly winds begin to return by 23/15Z and the end of the
period. /16/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  39  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  62  36  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  33  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  64  36  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  67  40  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  39  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  40  70  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...16