861
FXUS64 KSHV 051152
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

 - Scattered daytime thunderstorms with lingering evening showers
   to continue on Friday with widespread rain chances expected
   this weekend.

 - Showers expected to stay non-severe, but some thunder and
   localized flooding will be possible.

 - Temperatures will climb back into the mid to upper 80s by this
   weekend and into the lower 90s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Upper-level pattern characterized by a ridge across the Deep South
and a low across west Texas with the ArkLaTex sandwiched between
these two features. Eastern half of the ArkLaTex will be
influenced more heavily by the ridge allowing for slightly drier
conditions on Friday while increased southwest flow across East
and northeast Texas will result in higher rain chances across
these areas.

On Saturday, disturbance in the Gulf of America to swing northwest
along the western periphery of the upper-ridge, directly across
the ArkLaTex, resulting in widespread rain across the region.
Upper-level pattern to remain nearly unchanged through Sunday,
with the exception of an upper-low swinging northeast across the
Central Plains, which will maintain higher rain chances through
the end of the weekend.

Big shift in the pattern expected early next week as a surface
and upper-ridge build areawide. Subsidence associated with the
upper-ridge will not only lead to mostly dry conditions, but will
also bring a warming trend to the region. Afternoon highs in the
80s during the weekend will approach the mid 90s by midweek.

/05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

For the 05/12z TAFs, most locations will remain VFR until late in
the period, but several locations across East Texas, including
KTYR, will start this cycle with MVFR conditions due to low clouds
and patchy fog. A gradual improvement is expected early in the
period with VFR conditions returning to all TAF sites by midday.
However, low clouds are expected to bring IFR, and a few instances
of LIFR, flight conditions areawide after 06/06z. Otherwise,
scattered showers are already developing across portions of
Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas. Additional convection is
expected, with coverage peaking between 05/19z and 06/02z, mainly
west of a line from KMEZ to KLFK. KTYR appears to be the TAF site
most likely to be affected.

/Nuttall/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  87  73 /  10  10  40  20
MLU  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  70  30
DEQ  84  70  84  70 /  30  20  70  70
TXK  88  73  88  73 /  10  10  60  60
ELD  87  72  86  72 /   0  10  40  30
TYR  86  73  87  73 /  30  20  60  40
GGG  86  72  87  73 /  20  20  60  30
LFK  87  72  88  73 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09