627
FXUS64 KSHV 291136 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

 - Above normal temperatures, minus the heat headlines will
   persist for the next several days with little if any rain.

 - A few sites in deep east Texas have been around 106 briefly,
   but keep in mind this is where rain was missed last time.

 - A gradual warming trend unfolds as we continue with upper 90s
   and increasing humidity, making it feel hotter and thus more
   widespread heat headlines by midweek as we continue mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Another nice day in the books with a few temps still in the triple
digit range, all of which occurred in east Texas, where soil
temps did not see much cooling rainfall. The NE winds started
varying E to SE at times with our soundings split yesterday
showing SE flow in the lowest levels at 18Z and then back to all
NE low level flow by 29/00Z. So this surface high is in flux over
the Ohio River Valley and mid Atlantic states at 1024mb at this
hour. Of course pressure goes up for the cooler night time and
falls off a bit with heating. This is why we do most balloon
flights at daybreak and sunset to see these variations.

Likewise, cold fronts move better at night as heating makes the
ride a little slower being bumpy. Same on a plane, turbulence is
worst late day than early. The recent cool front that arrived
Thursday is loosing identity for us, but is still draped over our
southern tier of counties and parishes. Friday saw a weakness
with a few showers and isolated storms east of I-49 in the NW flow
aloft. Today the models and the WPC paint some light QPF over
deep east TX with a slight PoP in place for this afternoon near
the front, which will amble back northward. As time goes on, the
SE winds south of the front will power back through the slightly
drier air, with more humid tropical air off of the Gulf. So, while
highs will average in the upper 90s and lows will bump back to
mid and upper 70s, responding to these southerly dew points, the
heat index will be rising. Because that`s how "relative" humidity
is calculated, and a rising dew point means higher minimum RHs in
the afternoons to come. In response, the daily max heat indices
will soon elevate back above 105 for all of us during next week.

Any appreciable rain chances will creep up on the sea breeze, but
overall the drought is back in action. Not much will change this
week as the upper heat ridge extends back to the east this week.
The upper weakness along the Gulf coast will be the check valve
for us keeping our heights aloft from soaring. So really the slow
moistening trend will be what really makes it start to feel
hotter. All that humidity returning makes it hard for perspiration
to evaporate, thus the rapid sweat is soon to return. So keep the
plan of working outside early and late and avoid the hottest part
of the days each afternoon.

And we are still watching what exactly the remnants of T.S. Dolly
will do, now riding over the Windward`s and N of Puerto Rico
toward the Bahamas on the NHC official track. That arriving upper
ridge moving from AZ/NM to 596dam over the Ohio River valley will
steer the wave into the very warm waters of the Gulf. The latest
GFS bounces a weak surface low and upper weakness along the Gulf
coast over the Labor Day weekend. This is what happened with
Bertha, limiting the chance to circulate over open waters, keeping
intensity at bay so to speak. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 29/12Z TAF period. Areas
of elevated cu/low AC over portions of N LA/SCntrl AR/extreme Ern
TX will persist through late morning before thinning out, with a
scattered cu field expected to develop areawide by late
morning/midday. Isolated convection may develop this afternoon
over portions of Wrn LA/adjacent areas of E and Deep E TX, but low
confidence precludes VCTS mention for the SHV/LFK terminals attm.
Any convection that develops will dissipate around/shortly after
00Z, although some areas of elevated cu/low AC may again linger
across portions of E TX/N LA this evening/overnight. ENE winds
around 5kts, except VRB in some areas, will become Lt/Vrb after
00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  98  68  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  97  70  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR 100  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0
GGG 101  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  99  74  98  74 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15