424
FXUS64 KSHV 061811
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Updated to increase pops across our northern most zones as progs
continue to not handle convection in association with upper
forcing and associated outflow boundary moving through the Red
River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma into Southwest Arkansas. Will
continue to advertise categorical pops across these areas until
late this afternoon when convection should become more scattered
in nature. Did bring pops all the way south into NE LA just in
case however. Otherwise, lowered temperatures slightly across the
north but did not make any changes south.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Short range guidance has remained somewhat uncertain regarding the
exact timing of our early morning complex of storms. Consensus
pushes an MCS out of south central Oklahoma around or soon after
daybreak, bringing impacts towards the I-30 corridor into the late
morning. The complex is expected to weaken as it tracks south and
east, but the possibility of further outflow-driven convection may
linger into the early afternoon between the I-20 and I-30 corridors.
A Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather exists with this
system, particularly the earlier and further north the impacts
commence, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard, but
large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Showers and storms look to dissipate by mid-afternoon, with quiet
conditions persisting for the majority of the region. However,
while pseudo zonal to northwest flow continues, our northernmost
zones will retain the possibility of being clipped by showers and
storms overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. Early in the
day tomorrow, a shortwave trough will propagate out of Oklahoma
and through the Ozarks, and looks to kick up the next round of
storms, beginning tomorrow morning and afternoon for our northern
and eastern zones.

Temperatures will continue to reach above average values as
afternoon highs climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s today and
tomorrow, with warm, muggy lows in the 70s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

By tomorrow evening, a more organized trough will push south and
east out of Oklahoma over the Ouachitas, and with this forcing
mechanism the next organized round of storms will sweep into the
ArkLaTex from the north Saturday evening, pushing south overnight.
The impacts of this system are accounted for by a Slight Risk (Level
2 of 5) for areas along and north of I-20. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the primary expected hazards, with a possible tornado
or two. The primary threat of storms looks to track south and east
out of the region Sunday morning, with lingering slight chances for
storms in their wake, reinforced by expanded convection into the
afternoon and evening. Sunday will see another day of Slight Risk,
this time for the northwestern two-thirds of the Four State
Region.

The northwest flow regime will continue into early next week, with a
large ridge over the Rockies and a deepening low over the Great
Lakes. A small shortwave trough will be riding the flow late Sunday
overnight into Monday, heralded by returning showers and storms for
our northeast Texas zones, spreading areawide into Monday morning.
These rainfall chances will see little interruption through the
first half of the week, as a series of weak disturbances propagating
down the northwest flow. By mid to late week, the ridge looks to
lift to the north. However, this will not spell any sort of end to
our unsettled pattern, as a closed low takes shape over Texas,
opening up into an eastward tracking trough, and accompanying
showers and storms on a near daily basis through to the end of this
extended forecast period.

low to mid 90s will continue through the weekend, followed by a
slight cooling trend in the form of areawide 80s through next week`s
rainier pattern. Lows in the 60s and 70s will continue throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a TS outflow boundary is just S of
KTXK/KELD now w/ VCSH and their SW winds have shifted to gusty
NW- NE, but will back to SW around 21Z 5-15KT as is the case for
our sites along and S of I-20. Our late spring WX pattern is
locked in now for the wknd with more primarily nocturnal TS
activity feeding on the LLJ and then sporting diurnal leftovers.
We see a weak fropa to our N until Mon aftn w/ N winds S of I-20,
it stalls just to our S with more TS/MCS activity all week. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  96  77  95 /   0   0  20  20
MLU  77  96  76  92 /   0  10  30  40
DEQ  71  90  68  90 /  10  30  50  20
TXK  76  94  73  92 /   0  10  50  20
ELD  73  94  70  91 /  10  10  50  30
TYR  76  93  76  93 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  75  93  75  93 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...24