319
FXUS64 KSHV 061118
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
518 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Above normal and near record high temperatures are expected
   again today across much of the region. The potential remains
   for scattered severe thunderstorms affecting Southeast
   Oklahoma, portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas
   late this afternoon and especially during the evening and
   overnight hours.

 - Periods of heavy but much needed rainfall is expected across
   much of the region this weekend, which should ease the drought
   conditions in place. There is also the chance for some
   additional severe weather, especially on Saturday.

 - A wet pattern will develop next week, as daily rain chances
   will be in the forecast. Can`t rule out additional strong to
   severe weather and excessive rainfall during this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The weather should be much quieter overnight in comparison to
last night across the Four State Region. Low clouds have already
started to move in from the south and should continue to spread
across the entire forecast area before sunrise. The clouds and
continuous southerly flow will only allow morning lows to fall
into the 60s areawide. The low clouds will be a little slower to
diminish today, with portions of East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma,
and adjacent SW Arkansas possibly holding on the cloud cover for
most of the day. Southerly winds will also be on the increase in
response to surface Lee-side cyclogenesis on the front range of
eastern Colorado. I don`t think we will quite reach the Wind
Advisory sustained wind threshold of 20 mph, but it will be close.
Either way, wind gusts will range from 20-25 mph over the region,
so please exercise caution if you are on area waterways. We
should see another day of near record warmth, especially for
locations along and south of the I-30 corridor, as afternoon
highs will climb into the mid 80s. There is a chance of some warm
advection type showers, along with some isolated diurnal driven
thunderstorms during the lunch and afternoon hours. But, our main
concerns for today will likely start in the late afternoon and
early evening hours, as a positively tilted upper trough ejects
out of eastern Colorado into the northern Plains. This will drive
a cold front towards the region. A lead short-wave disturbance
will move along the southwesterly flow ahead of the front,
igniting thunderstorms in our northwesterly zones. There should be
a decent unstable environment in place, with sfc base CAPE near
1500 J/KG, mid 60 dew points, low WBZ heights, and decent shear
values. This would put all hazards in place, which has been
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center with a Enhanced Risk
for severe weather. This risk is generally for areas along and
north of the I-30 corridor, which consist of Northeast Texas,
Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent Southwest Arkansas.

This convection may linger through the late evening hours before
diminishing. However, as the front arrives on our doorstep pre-
dawn Saturday, additional storms will start to develop. These
storms will form into a line along the front and push south into
the region. Although some of this convection could get undercut
by the front and become more elevated, a severe threat will
remain, with damaging winds and large hail becoming the primary
threat. The front is expected to stall across the region Saturday
into Sunday, setting up an overrunning rain situation, especially
for most of the region along and south of the I-30 corridor. This
will needed to be monitored and this set-up could yield some
excessive rainfall over the aforementioned areas.

The front is expected to lift back north of the region by Monday,
but rainfall chances will remain. In fact, a wet pattern will develop
next week, as long-term progs have a much stronger closed upper
trough slowly pushing eastward towards the area from the northern
Baja region of Mexico. Ahead of this trough, several disturbances
will move into the region, resulting in daily rain chances, until
the trough finally pushes through region by late next week.
Additional severe weather and excessive rainfall can`t be ruled
out during this period. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Beginning the morning with widespread MVFR ceilings and with a
strong pressure gradient in place, SSE winds were sustained near
10kts with some higher gusts noted at times at the TXK/TYR and GGG
terminals. As we go through the morning, look for these ceilings
to rise and/or scatter out with VFR conditions prevailing by the
Noon hour through the afternoon and early evening hours. Left out
any WX mention until late this evening and overnight in the TAF
period but cannot rule out some isolated showers possibly
impacting our western terminals through the afternoon hours. MVFR
ceilings will return quickly this evening and overnight across all
terminals. Winds will be quite strong and gusty today. Look for
SSW winds sustained near 10-16kts with gusts approaching 30kts,
especially at the TYR, GGG, TXK and SHV terminals.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Spotter activation will may be needed late this afternoon or
evening across Southeast Oklahoma, extreme Northeast Texas, and
adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas, and again on Saturday for
most of the forecast area. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  68  77  63 /  30  50 100  80
MLU  87  68  80  64 /  20  30 100  70
DEQ  79  60  72  50 /  50  70  90  60
TXK  84  67  75  58 /  40  60  90  70
ELD  84  64  74  58 /  30  50 100  70
TYR  84  67  73  56 /  40  50 100  70
GGG  85  67  77  58 /  30  50 100  80
LFK  85  68  81  63 /  30  40  90  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13