345
FXUS64 KSHV 250942
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
342 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

08-09Z temps are much warmer across the region than what was
observed 24 hrs ago, with readings some 12-20+ degrees warmer
courtesy of the increased Srly low level flow/moisture advection.
The pressure gradient still remains somewhat tight across the
area this morning, with occasional gusts and cu cigs having held
temps up, with even a small rise noted in some areas. However, a
changing of the air mass is expected later today as a cold front,
analyzed from SE of a TUL, to DUC, to near SPS line as of 08Z,
continues to steadily march SE this morning, entering the NW zones
of McCurtain County OK/Red River County TX by 15Z, before nearing
the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR around/shortly after 18Z. The
frontal movement remains consistent if not a touch faster than
earlier model runs, with low level moisture depth remaining
limited out ahead of the front. However, another day of well above
normal temps is expected ahead of the front today over much of E
TX/N LA/Srn AR, with forecast highs near or just shy of record
highs for the date. Given the 08-09Z temps, continued
warm/moisture advection, as well as insolation, have increased the
NBM temps up a cpl degrees across the warm sector ahead of the
front, before temps begin to fall with the fropa.

The various hi-res progs remain consistent with the previous
forecast that frontal forcing may be strong enough within the
shallow low level moisture field to ignite isolated/widely
scattered convection by mid and late afternoon from portions of
Deep E TX NE across much of N LA/SCntrl AR. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas later this afternoon, which may be
more confined to Ern LA by/after 00Z. Regardless, QPF amounts will
remain quite light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. Cold
advection will spill SE in wake of the front late this afternoon
and especially tonight, with the post-frontal stratocu field
eventually clearing from N to S tonight. Min temps should remain
above freezing across SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR, with more
seasonal temps returning to the region Tuesday as sfc ridging
builds E through the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Meanwhile, the
cold front is expected to settle into the Nrn Gulf offshore the
TX/LA coasts Tuesday morning before becoming stationary, and
eventually washing out Tuesday night.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

A Srly low level flow will quickly commence over the area Tuesday
night as the sfc ridging shifts E into the Appalations/SE CONUS,
allowing for a quick return of low level moisture back N into the
region. While the flow aloft will remain zonal over the Srn
Plains/Lower MS Valley through Wednesday evening, a 35-40+kt
SWrly LLJ ahead of deepening low pressure along a secondary cold
front will enhance warm/low level moisture advection back NNE
Wednesday, with the roller coaster in temps continuing with the
return of much above normal temps that should remain just shy of
record territory. Did bump up max temps a bit higher than the NBM
especially as the stronger winds along the LLJ axis mix down to
the sfc, contributing to gusty SW winds especially over E TX/Wrn
LA/SW AR. The progs continue to trend faster with this second cold
fropa Wednesday night, which will limit the depth of the low
level moisture across the warm sector ahead of the front. Thus,
pops have been trimmed back further and confined primarily across
Cntrl/Ern LA Wednesday night, as forcing associated with the
front`s attendant shortwave trough swinging E through the
Ozarks/MS and OH Vallies remains weak. This next front will usher
in below normal temps in time for Thanksgiving Day as the post-
frontal cigs thin during the day.

In fact, near to sub-freezing temps are a good bet across much of
NE TX, all of SW AR, and possibly the Nrn border parishes of N LA
Thursday night. Thus, the need for Freeze Warnings appear likely
for these areas, with these temps further refined in later forecasts.
A WNW flow aloft will continue into the holiday weekend, along
the base and backside of longwave troughing that will linger over
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes/OH Vallies to the Ern
Seaboard. An additional reinforcement of colder/drier air is
progged by the various models to spill S into the area Saturday
night/Sunday, maintaining the very cool/below normal temps and dry
conditions in place for the remainder of the extended, persisting
through at least midweek next week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

For the 25/06z TAF update...Widespread VFR conditions prevail this
evening for all terminals with a few high clouds passing over the
region. This will continue through around 25/12z when some lower
CIGs will start to develop and move through, bringing some MVFR
conditions through around 25/18z. Southerly winds will continue
across the region into the overnight hours and will begin to shift
to the west and then northwest through the day. Winds will become
gusty again this afternoon with sustained winds around 10 to 15
kts and gusts up to 20 kts expected. There is a chance for some
isolated showers or thunderstorms on Monday, however, there is not
enough confidence at this time to mention them for any terminals. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  46  66  51 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  81  46  63  45 /  20  30   0   0
DEQ  67  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  40  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77  42  61  44 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  76  42  65  53 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  77  43  64  51 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  83  46  69  52 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...33