740
FXUS64 KSHV 101201
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 - A gradual weakening of the upper ridge is expected today into
   Friday, paving the way for a trough and weak frontal boundary
   to drop south with rain chances increasing areawide on Friday.

 - The ridge will eventually regain its footing across much of the
   SECONUS by late weekend, limiting daily convection to diurnally
   driven activity mainly during peak heating hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A slight pattern shift is already underway early this morning as
the expansive upper ridge has begun to split off, providing for a
weakness in the longwave pattern that will allow a trough to drop
south into our region. This trough will help to usher a weak cool
front into our far northern zones by early this evening, bringing
elevated rain chances to areas along and north of I-30 later today
into tonight. Late day timing of convection coinciding with peak
heating may allow for a few strong to severe storms with damaging
wind gusts along and just south of the front as it nears I-30 by
this evening. Farther south, convection is less likely except for
some sea-breeze induced activity in our far southern zones as a
weak low drifts northward from the SE LA coast this afternoon.

Although heat advisory headlines are not in effect today, high
temperatures will still surge into the mid to upper 90s over the
vast majority of the region this afternoon. Compressional warming
ahead of the front may amplify this heat in our northern zones so
cannot rule out some areas briefly reaching heat advisory criteria
but should be isolated instances if it occurs. Rain chances should
continue to increase areawide into Friday with the front slipping
slightly farther south near the AR/LA border before stalling out.
Although not everyone will see rainfall, Friday is likely to yield
the best coverage of convection over the next 7 days, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating.

Unfortunately, the ridge is still progged to build back over the
SECONUS we move later in the weekend. This will begin to limit our
rain chances once again while pushing temperatures higher through
at least the middle of next week. Convection will be more isolated
to widely scattered during this timeframe, spurred on by diurnally
driven instability each day for much of next week. Looking out a
bit farther in time, indications of the upper ridge beginning to
retrograde farther out west by next weekend still appear possible.
Of course, this is still beyond a week out in the forecast but at
least there are hints at our first real sign of slightly cooler
temperatures along with additional rain chances by next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, light S/SW wind this morning under fair
skies. We could see a return of MVFR-LIFR at KLFK for another hour
or two. Otherwise, S/SW winds will prevail 5-10KT for today with
little if any convection expected again this late afternoon terminal
wise, but isolated pop-ups will be possible here and there. A weak
cool front approaching will bring an uptick in convection across I-
30 tonight with pooled moisture arriving for KTXK by 04-06Z and
KTYR/KGGG 09-12Z. Coverage gets better areawide with heating. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Spotter activation may be needed by late this afternoon and early
evening with storms along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  76  95  75 /  10   0  30  10
MLU  98  75  95  74 /  10  10  50  10
DEQ  98  69  92  69 /  20  40  70  10
TXK  97  74  95  73 /  10  10  50  10
ELD  98  72  96  71 /   0  10  50  10
TYR  97  75  96  75 /   0  10  30   0
GGG  98  73  97  74 /   0   0  30   0
LFK  93  72  92  73 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24