846
FXUS64 KSHV 121833
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
133 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

 - Robust ridging aloft will maintain a prolonged heat wave that
   shows no signs of relenting anytime soon.

 - Rain chances will remain virtually non-existent under this very
   stagnant pattern.

 - Flash drought conditions will begin to quickly manifest in this
   increasingly hot and dry blocking high regime.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Dreadful is about the only word that comes to mind to describe this
forecast. A classic blocking high will effectively remain anchored
across our region for the foreseeable future, thereby intensifying
the ongoing heat wave across much of the central and southern US.
As high pressure aloft results in sinking air or subsidence, the
downward motion compresses and warms the air closer to the surface
and effectively traps the heat in place. This pattern is certainly
not unusual for this time of year, which is typically our hottest
part of the summer on average. However, the more prolonged nature
of this heat wave combined with a lack of rainfall will present a
growing concern for flash drought conditions and the corresponding
fire danger.

Given the expected duration of this stagnant pattern lasting into
next week, the Heat Advisory has already been extended through
Sunday with further extensions likely as lower triple-digit high
temperatures become even more common this weekend. If there is any
consolation, it appears the rapid drying out of soils will keep
dew points in check along with some mixing out through the daytime
hours such that the humidity levels won`t be quite as oppressive.
However, with the lower humidity comes the threat of fire danger
so it`s a trade-off in that respect. For this reason, it`s likely
Fire Danger Statements will become necessary at some point this
week as rapid drying out continues to lead to the onset of flash
drought conditions.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 12/18Z TAF period. A weak
cu field has developed across Lower E TX/N LA near and S of the I-20
corridor, with a few cu expected to develop farther N across the
remainder of the region through the afternoon. This cu field will
diminish by/shortly after sunset, with mostly SKC expected through
the evening and overnight hours. Low MVFR stratocu should again
develop by/shortly after 12Z Thursday across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA,
which may result in brief cigs at LFK through mid-morning, before
quickly lifting/scattering out. The cu field should be similar to
what is expected this afternoon, mainly S of I-20 through midday
with a few cu developing elsewhere in the afternoon. SSW winds
8-12kts with occasional higher gusts will become S 5-10kts after 00Z.

/15/

&&


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  78 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15