453
FXUS64 KSHV 072018
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
318 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Heat Advisory issuance will continue areawide through Tuesday
   as hazardous heat remains widespread.

 - Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
   persist through most of this week into the weekend.

 - Chances are increasing for a weather pattern change that
   delivers cooler temperatures by this weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Yet another day continues with ridging as the predominant weather
influence over the Four State Region. Each day, convection
continues to percolate along the patches of vorticity propagating
in westward flow around and between ridge axes. Today`s patch
will ride along the edge of a weak frontal boundary with the ridge
axis centered across the southern Great Plains. This frontal
boundary will linger across the area into Tuesday before drifting
back north as a warm front by the middle of the week, leaving a
drier day for Wednesday before the next patch of moisture and
vorticity lines up with an approaching frontal boundary by
Thursday. A gradual cooldown ensues as a result of this activity
(mid 90s), while long-range guidance suggests a pattern change by
the end of this week (temperature maximums likely cooler in the
low-to-mid 90s) as the aforementioned ridge finally breaks down,
bifurcated by troughing with an attendant frontal boundary that is
expected to arrive later next weekend with more widespread rain
chances. Resulting WPC QPF Day 1-7 values reflect an overall a
precipitation distribution that is trending wetter in
southeasterly zones with 0.01 to 0.25 inch rainfall totals likely
areawide and 0.25-0.50 inch totals more likely to the south where
any additional convection can form. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light winds, mainly southeast, to prevail today with VCTS
conditions possible across mainly east Texas and north Louisiana
terminals. Conditions to improve this evening with nearly calm
winds areawide overnight. Otherwise, light winds expected on
Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing through 08/18Z.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  98  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
MLU  76  99  75  96 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  72 101  72  99 /  20  10   0  10
TXK  75  99  75  97 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  73 101  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  77  99  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  76 100  75  98 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  75  96  74  92 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05