373
FXUS64 KSHV 241743
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Ongoing strong to severe convection across SE Oklahoma prompted
the issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316 through 3PM for
much of our northern CWA. This convection is beginning to enter
the adjacent counties in SW Arkansas and may even clip some of
extreme NE Texas so the watch does include the Texarkana metro
area on both sides of the state line. The primary threats with
these storms are large hail and damaging wind gusts, which have
already been reported in parts of northern McCurtain County.

Radar trends over the past half hour seem to indicate a slight
weakening trend, but additional heating through late morning into
the afternoon could allow for some reintensification so that is
the justification for the watch extending through mid afternoon.
Additionally, some new outflow driven convection will be possible
as well farther downstream so the watch does extend as far south
as the AR/LA state line.

For now, the forecast for the remainder of today has been updated
to include the severe threats mentioned above in our northern
zones with additional expansion of rain and thunderstorm chances
farther south of the watch through this afternoon. Otherwise, no
other changes are needed at this time. All updated text products
have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Closely monitoring elevated, potentially even some surface based
convection across central Oklahoma, and a developing MCS across
southern Kansas this morning. General trend in the radar
presentation closer to home in Oklahoma has been ongoing elevated
thunderstorms, that as they move east, gradually dissipate. That
being said, the morning CAMs have continued to suggest some form
of thunderstorm cluster or MCS working into SE Oklahoma and SW
Arkansas later this morning, gradually falling apart as it moves
southward through the late morning, early afternoon. In true NW
flow fashion, hi-res guidance continues to struggle, leading to
limited confidence in downstream convective coverage and impacts
locally.

For the time being, elected to side more with the CAMs that
have handled the early morning OK/KS convection the best. Buying
that these continue their streak of success, along with additional
support from other hi-res models that were slower to advertise any
morning convection, added a corridor of SCHC PoPs for the afternoon
along the I-20 corridor and south citing localized instability this
afternoon, clashing with what appears to be a form of residual
boundary forcing drifting south from the decay of the morning
convection. While some of the CAMs have nailed the early morning
convection, thinking is that their presentation of afternoon
convective coverage may be on the ambitious side, while other hi-res
output shows very limited coverage. This is why only SCHC PoPs were
drawn up. If confidence increases, the morning update will adjust
PoPs. For the time being, the Storm Prediction Center continues to
highlight the I-20 corridor and areas north for potential strong
to severe storms, mainly linked to the morning convection, and
some possible afternoon coverage.

Nonetheless, a warm to borderline hot afternoon will again be
present across the Four State Region, with highs very similar to
yesterday, in the low and mid 90`s. We will remain mild overnight as
the upper ridge across north Texas and Oklahoma slowly slides
eastward. By Sunday afternoon, a broad upper ridge presentation will
be located across the south, with convection likely riding the
northern periphery of the ridge envelope. As a result, PoPs are
mainly drawn up across the extreme northern zones to start, with
some increase in percentages during Sunday afternoon, especially
as the upper flow turns more W/SW. This will initiate a prolonged
stretch of thunderstorm chances heading into the long term period
starting late Sunday night, and into early Monday AM.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The upper ridge will quickly break down come Monday, with W/SW flow
becoming the dominate synoptic driver through much of the long term
period. Multiple perturbations within the mid-level flow will support
thunderstorm chances through the upcoming work week, and in return
will support the chance for possible severe weather to accompany
these clusters of thunderstorms. The previous D4 slight has now
become a Day 3 Slight Risk across the western zones of the FA, and
given the pattern in place, it is likely that future outlooks will
follow in the days to come as each disturbance will support some
form of wind and hail threat. Low predictability in this regime
however remains the main delay in any long term confidence.

What can be said through the long term period is that with daily
thunderstorm chances, including a potential heavy rainfall threat
through the middle of next week, the 7 day QPF forecast remains on
the higher side, with storm totals nearing 5" for some communities,
with many falling between 3-5" over the next 7 days. Daily
temperatures will also be impacted given daily rain chances, with
highs only in the mid 80`s through much of the week.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

For the 24/18Z TAFs, MVFR to lower VFR CIGs prevail as the cloud
decks of this afternoon`s Cu field overspread our southern and
western airspace. A line of showers and storms continue to move
south and eastward across southwest Arkansas, with further
convection arriving from the northwest, and isolated pop up
convection ahead and south of the main line. These showers and
storms look to come to an end by sundown, followed by a mostly
quiet night and new storms late in the period tomorrow. Southerly
to southeasterly winds will continue at sustained speeds of 5 to
10 kts with gusts of up to 20 kts possible throughout.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Spotter activation is needed through this afternoon across our
northern zones in SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and extreme NE Texas
with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 3 PM today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  88 /   0  20  40  70
MLU  73  93  73  89 /  20  30  30  70
DEQ  68  90  67  78 /  20  20  60  80
TXK  73  93  71  83 /  10  20  50  80
ELD  69  92  69  84 /  10  30  50  80
TYR  75  93  73  86 /   0  10  40  70
GGG  73  93  72  86 /   0  10  40  70
LFK  75  94  75  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...26