689
FXUS64 KSHV 072001
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

3pm temperatures around the Four-State area are lower to mid 60s
north with full sunshine, and still some mid to upper 50s south of
I-20, where the thickest clouds are lingering. An area of high
pressure at 1020mb is located over central TX drifting to the SE
toward the coast. In addition, a larger 1024mb high pressure is
anchored over the Canadian Prairies, but extends down the middle
MS River Valley and is spreading southward. These two fair weather
friends will more or less merge over the short term period.

Clear skies overnight and our decoupling winds at the surface
will give us light and variable to calm conditions after midnight
through daybreak. So, very good radiational cooling will occur
for us with lows in the mid to upper 30s north, and mostly around
40 to lower 40s for our large cities and all southern zones. We
could see a touch of frost with the mid 30s in our north, while
most places will briefly see a window for light fog in the hours
around daybreak. The ground is still wet and lakes and bayous full
in many locales. Some patchy fog is a more likely scenario to
start the day.

Tuesday our high temps will rebound with the much lighter winds,
starting with NW early as the lower atmosphere is still NW flow up
to the freezing level. As the TX surface high center drops
farther southeast, our winds will back to W/SW and S/SW for us
with not much speed anywhere. This will boost the day`s heating on
the wet ground for a run into the lower 70s for most of us. And
then, we can expect slightly warmer 40s for the overnight hours
into early Wednesday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The SW flow aloft above the freezing level will veer to NW flow,
albeit light and not bringing any systems until late week. So, the
warming trend will continue to unfold back to average and well
above and even well beyond late this coming weekend. The next big
air mass and cold front will only graze our region with the
1028mb core over the Dakotas and Minnesota by midnight Thursday
evening.

The cold front will be sweeping over the middle MS River
Valley and the deepening trough over the OH River Valley will keep
much of the weather east of the MS River. Our SW winds will shift
over to NW late Thursday and overnight. The GFS has a slight bit
of QPF over S AR and some of our delta region Parishes down toward
Toledo Bend. The WPC day 4 QPF forecast is for only a few
hundreths of an inch, but for now will keep the consensus dry
biased for another run as there is just not much return flow to
meet the NW winds. We will see mostly SW winds ahead of the front,
instead of the deep SE winds fresh off the Gulf of America as was
the case in our recent prolonged event.

The core of the air mass will amble down the MS River Valley and
end up over the ArkLaMiss come early Saturday. So a brief step
back in the warming to very average climate readings can be
expected for Friday afternoon and early risers this weekend. Palm
Sunday will climb back above averages to wrap up the weekend. The
upper ridging over the western U.S. will extend from Mexico into
Canada and push our temps backup through the 80s with still
nothing to get excited about rainwise until maybe mid to late
month with another Baja Low. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

For the 07/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through the
period as stratocumulus continues to erode from NW to SE across
our airspace this afternoon. Expect SKC conditions to return at
all terminals by 08/00Z as winds diminish to light and variable.
Otherwise, look for winds to remain a bit breezy from the NW this
afternoon ranging from 8-14 kts with higher gusts around 20 kts
before decoupling by early this evening as high pressure builds
in at the sfc.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Spotter activation is not expected across the Four State Region
attm.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  73  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  43  71  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  37  71  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  41  72  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  38  69  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  42  72  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  40  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  41  73  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19