179
FXUS64 KSHV 141147
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
547 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Little change in our current pattern aside from a slow warming
   trend, and really for lows more than highs keeping mid 80s.

 - Early next week will start to see more cloudiness and still a
   slight chance for some rainfall with a weak front nearby.

 - By midweek, we will start to see some whole pattern changes as
   overrunning light rain gives way to some potential heavy
   thunderstorms as a deep upper trough brings focus to SW flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The late summer pattern we endured with expanding drought
conditions is slowly working back into our mid fall "rainy" month
with continued warm and dry weather. The current pattern is locked
in around the major ocean coastal players aloft and on the
surface. This surface high over the N Gulf will soon be
reinforced in the back door over the Appalachians into the SE
U.S., essentially keeping us in this warm and dry S/SW flow
through the weekend. This warming trend will bring in more low to
mid 80s in for highs and lows edging into the 60s, widespread for
us by early next week. We may see a couple of warm record lows by
then, but our highs have been hotter record wise with mostly mid
to upper 80s through mid month.

The models are still looking at a slight chance for rain early
next week, but this air mass at 1029mb keeps over the Great Lake
states and it`s cold front will push down to along I-20, but the
cold air keeping more in the Ohio valley. This air mass will
follow the trend and end up further reinforcing the semi-
permanent surface high over the Gulf coastal waters to start next
week. The next system to follow will be the deep upper trough
setting up on the west coast now, that will cross the
intermountain west in two parts early next week.

A secondary core low in the NW Pacific will quickly drop into the
deepening pattern and we will see our SW flow aloft start to
bring in all the Pacific moisture to our area by mid and late week.
By late Tuesday and into Wednesday, light showers and isolated
thunder will arrive with the lead short wave on the stationary
front. Then then through Thursday the axis of heaviest amounts
and most likely chance for some bumpy storms will occur overnight
into early and midday Thursday. Timing at present is an ally for
less heating and perhaps less bumpy storms. Then the heavy
thunderstorm activity will be shifting the heavy axis to our east
by sunset. The remainder of this system will slowly clear from W
to E during Friday. For this time with all the added clouds our
highs will trend cooler back into the 70s and lows, rain cooled
lower 60s and eventually 50s again by Friday. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Areas of low cloud and FG this morning across our Deep East TX, NW
Louisiana and SW Arkansas terminals. This should burn off quickly
after sunrise, but for the time being, MVFR and even brief
instances of IFR/LIFR may exist through 15z/16z. By the afternoon,
a mix of SCT/BKN coverage should exist as a CU field develops.
Clouds should begin to dissipate into the evening with the chance
for some BR/FG potential once again overnight, but confidence on
direct impacts were not high enough to include at this time. S/SW
winds around 10kt look to hold once again for this afternoon,
becoming lighter overnight.

53

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  81  57  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  83  61  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  79  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  82  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  83  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53