237
FXUS64 KSHV 281143 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
643 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

 - Average temperatures will continue over the region for the
   next few days with no heat headlines expected.

 - Little change in the pattern as we move into early September,
   but the our temperatures will be slowly rising by midweek.

 - The outlook for late week and peaking toward the holiday
   weekend appear to sport more heat concerns as the humidity
   builds back off the Gulf.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Mostly clear in many areas, but there are some mid and high clouds
out there from some debris from isolated convection over the
Nature State late today. Our radar is clear for our concerns, but
there are now a few showers again near Hot Springs, moving SSE in
the returning in the full moon light (ha ha ;^). Speaking of
rainfall, we did very well on the rains last night except over
east Texas. Interestingly, the 18Z run of the GFS yesterday showed
a tropical cyclone lifting into coastal bend for Labor Day
weekend into over eastern Texas, but now the new 00Z run has this
same cyclone headed more toward the state capitol and hill
country. While not official, timing wise it very well could be the
newly named Tropical Storm Dolly which is out mid Atlantic. She
is forecast to weaken back to depression status over the northern
Windward Islands in the next few days. The sheared wave however,
continues into the Gulf, riding under the upper ridge near the
Ohio River Valley and rebuilds strength.

And we talked about that upper ridge last night. Currently the
heat ridge is still over Arizona and New Mexico, but as a deep
trough moves inland off the Pacific. This will force the upper
ridge back toward the MS River Valley late this weekend and then
pushes down eastward over the Appalachians, to near the Carolinas
by the middle of next week. And this is where our heat headlines
likely return, as the NE winds run out of gas soon, it will take a
couple more days of SE flow late this weekend and early next week
to resume the super muggy feel over our area. And we continue to
see the high temps in the mid to upper 90s during this time that
added tropical air will make it feel hotter. Our lows will bottom
out today or tomorrow and then push back through the mid to upper
70s during this timeframe.

So overall, a nice pattern of summer doldrums with the excessive
heat behaving for this weekend and early next week. We will
continue to see this nice change from the SW winds and triple
digits linger for several days. Hopefully they do not return at
all in force this year for another long run of days. However, we
will see at least a few more sporadic triples though as the
drying soils warm back through the 80s. The drought monitor may
hold steady for next week with last night`s rain in the mix, but
without more widespread rainfall, the D3 extreme drought category
is likely to gain a foot hold once again. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 28/12Z TAF period.
Scattered areas of low AC will persist across SW AR attm, which
will gradually shift S into N LA through the remainder of the
morning. While some scattered stratocu may develop over portions
of Deep E TX/WCntrl LA this morning, these should lift into a
scattered cu field by late morning/early afternoon by late
morning/early afternoon, although a bit weaker across the western
sections of NE TX into SE OK. Isolated convection may develop
especially by mid to late afternoon mainly over portions of NCntrl
LA/Deep E TX, but will dissipate by/shortly after 00Z with the cu
field diminishing as well. Mostly SKC is expected through the end
of the TAF period. NNE winds 5-7kts today will become Lt/Vrb after
00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  93  70  95  69 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  96  66  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  99  74  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
GGG  99  72  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  98  74  98  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15