658
FXUS64 KSHV 052303
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
603 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - Heat Advisory issuance will continue further south on Sunday
   as chances of storms are less likely along and north of I-20.

 - Above normal summer heat will continue through the rest of
   weekend into early next week (upper 90s/lower 100s likely).

 - Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
   persist now through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Ridging has redeveloped as anticipated across the central Great
Plains to our north, and convection has developed in the flow
underneath its southern periphery (also as anticipated). High-
resolution guidance suggests a gradual tapering off of remaining
convective strength with the loss of daytime heating after sunset.
Zonal flow underneath this ridge will continue to steer
disturbances westward, and combined with lower geopotential
heights/weaker atmospheric subsidence, convective rounds will
develop inheriting this westward propagation through the next
several days. Variations in the intensity of the waves of
vorticity advected will drive the intensity of convection for each
day. With dew points remaining in the low 70s through the
weekend, the potential for heat hazard product issuance also
remains elevated (especially along and north of the I-30 corridor
into south Arkansas).

A new Heat Advisory has been issued further south as a result with
reduced vorticity advection behind today`s shortwave. This
slightly drier pattern will continue through early next week with
reduced or displaced vorticity advection. Medium-range guidance
suggests a gradual cooldown by the middle of the week as another
round of vorticity arrives from a westwardly propagating wave to
induce better chances of rain by the end of the week. Long-range
guidance suggests more of the same as somewhat westerly zonal flow
aloft funnels more perturbations (instigating convection) in our
direction. That said, the convection that does develop will still
follow a diurnal pattern with the best chances of rain south of
the I-20 corridor under less inhibition from ridging to the north.
Resulting WPC QPF Day 1-7 values reflect this overall distribution
with 0.01 to 0.25 inch rainfall totals likely north of I-20 and
0.25-0.50 inch totals likely to the south. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For the 06/00z TAF period...VFR conditions at all sites
currently. However, isolated to scattered convection is developing
across the region and could lower flight conditions. As of now,
the main locations look to be at our East Texas sites and KSHV.
This convection should diminish after sunset. Some additional
reduce flight categories will be possible for a few hours near
daybreak Sunday, as low cigs are forecasted to develop along and
south of I-20.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Widespread spotter activation is not expected, although reports of
any heavy rainfall today for areas south of I-20 would be
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  77  99 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  99  76 100 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  72 101  72 101 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  10   0
ELD  73 101  74 100 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  99 /  20  10   0  10
GGG  73  98  75 101 /  30  10   0  10
LFK  72  91  74  95 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-
     012>014-019-021-022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20