068
FXUS64 KSHV 041140
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
640 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

 - Scattered showers and storms will push east across the
   ArkLaTex through the day today. Organized severe weather is not
   expected.

 - Heat will increase this weekend and into next week, with heat
   indices possibly reaching the triple digits, posing a potential
   hazard for extended outdoor activity.

 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will resume Sunday and continue
   into next week, particularly east of the I-49 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Upper level ridging over the central third of the CONUS and a broad
closed high over the Ozarks will remain in place aloft heading into
Friday morning. Short range high resolution model guidance is rather
split on timing and coverage, but the general consensus is that a
somewhat unsettled pattern similar to Thursday will unfold through
the day today. The 02Z HRRR suggests and early start to convection,
with showers pushing through east Texas during the morning and
dispersing to the north and east into the afternoon. The 00Z 3km
NAM, by contrast, keeps conditions quiet through the morning, with
an uptick in activity by late afternoon along a north-south axis
detectable across our easternmost zones. Compared to Thursday
afternoon, this model guidance suggests storms of a more isolated
nature. Allowing for the possibility of overperformance, increased
the coverage of PoPs through the day, particularly the afternoon
hours. MaxT`s for this afternoon favor upper 80s and lower 90s west,
where longer periods of cloud cover early will delay warming, and
middle 90s east, where showers are not expected until afternoon, if
at all.

Ultimately, widespread rainfall accumulations of great significance
are not expected, but localized brief heavy rainfall may be possible
in some storms. As of this writing, organized severe weather is not
anticipated, but a few rumbles of thunder may be expected areawide.
Friday`s convection looks to diminish by mid evening, making for
quiet conditions through the night.

Saturday looks to find quiet conditions prevailing, with the upper
level ridge which has defined much of our pattern this week
weakening and losing definition as it slides east, and a new closed
high taking shape over the Desert Southwest. In the absence of
forecasted showers and associated cooling cloud cover, daytime
temperatures look to trend upwards into the weekend, with more sites
trending towards the upper 90s. Heat indices will trend towards the
triple digits, which will need to be taken into consideration when
planning outdoor activity, especially for vulnerable groups such as
young children and the elderly.

Sunday will see convection returning, and NBM PoP guidance continues
to hint that this will occur on two fronts: first, a wave of storms
swinging out of Oklahoma by midday and clipping our northern
zones along and north of the I-30 corridor, soon joined by
advancing storms from the south across our Louisiana parishes and
deep east Texas counties through the afternoon, coming to an end
shortly after sunset. A similar pattern looks in store for Monday
afternoon, with rain chances areawide and the highest chances
across our northern and southern borders. Thus the ArkLaTex looks
to return- if briefly- to our classic summertime pattern of
afternoon convection, with noticeable coverage across our southern
and eastern zones, generally east of the I-49 corridor. The
aforementioned upper level high over the Four Corners region will
strengthen into next week and extend its reach to our east Texas
zones. There is some indication of a more organized system
impacting the ArkLaTex by mid next week, steered on northwest flow
aloft on the outer fringes of the closed high in the latest GFS
run, followed by a return to the classic afternoon convective
pattern by the end of this extended forecast period.

This will be accompanied by a continuation of the weekend`s warming
trend, with middle to upper 90s appearing in long range guidance
through the middle of next week, with lows in the 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the 04/12Z TAF update, marginal MVFR continues airspace-wide
in the wake of rainfall from yesterday. Some VCSH/-SHRA will
continue near KTXK. After sunrise and mixing to VFR by 04/14Z,
more VCTS is expected to develop from 04/15Z-05/00Z with light
southerly winds prevailing through the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  97  77 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  95  74  97  75 /  30  10  10   0
DEQ  88  71  93  72 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  93  74  97  75 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  93  72  95  73 /  30  10  10   0
TYR  89  74  93  74 /  30  10   0   0
GGG  88  73  95  73 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  90  74  95  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16