018
FXUS64 KSHV 110616
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

 - Abnormally hot and humid conditions will return today, but
   slightly better mixing should result in heat indices near or
   below 105 degrees.

 - While dry conditions are expected today, a decaying complex of
   showers and thunderstorms should spread into the areas along
   and north of the I-30 corridor by/after midnight tonight.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms should persist Friday for
   portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest
   Arkansas, which should act to taper the heat back slightly than
   areas farther south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Very warm and humid conditions persist even at the 05Z hour, as
dewpoints have had a hard time mixing out earlier today given the
abnormally high PW`s of 1.7-2.0 inches in place, as sampled by
the 00Z KSHV raob. Not expecting much additional cooling to
continue overnight as a weak pressure gradient will maintain S
winds 5-10kts thus continuing the mixing of the air, with low
cigs expected to develop within the next few hours over E
TX/WCntrl LA and spread NNE into SE OK/adjacent SW AR/Wrn LA by
daybreak. While flat ridging aloft will remain anchored from E TX
through the Lower MS Valley today, the short term progs suggest
that slightly drier air associated with lower PW`s of 1.5-1.7
inches over MS/SE LA will advect WNW into more of N LA/Srn AR,
which should to allow for slightly better mixing of dewpoints than
what was observed Wednesday afternoon. However, early morning low
level theta-e ridging that is progged to develop over E TX/SE
OK/adjacent SW AR should limit the extent of deep lyr mixing over
these areas, with max temps expected to be near if not a degree or
so warmer during the afternoon. While some areas in NW LA/Deep E
TX did briefly reach heat indices of 105 degrees Wednesday,
believe that this threshold will be brief and a bit more limited
later today, and thus will hold off on a Heat Advisory attm.

Upper troughing digging into Wrn WY early this morning is progged
to translate E through the Nrn Plains today and into the Midwest
this evening, with the trailing edge of the trough expected to
traverse into Nrn OK later this afternoon. This trough will
reinforce a weak cool front SE into the TX Panhandle, Cntrl and NE
OK by mid and late afternoon, and serve as the focal point for
scattered to numerous convection development by the 21-22Z
timeframe, as they begin to slide SE into the TX South Plains,
Srn and SE OK and NW AR during the evening. Adequate low level
convergence leading into the front within a strongly unstable
air mass should result in severe convection developing over these
areas even through the evening, although the SE storm propagation
into SE OK should yield a weakening trend as the instability
begins to wane, and deep lyr shear weakens considerably with time
and distance away from the trough. However, the remains a non-zero
severe chance that these storms may try and gust out as they
enter Nrn McCurtain County OK and the adjacent Nrn sections of SW
AR by or after midnight tonight, even while maintaining some
organization through at least a portion of the overnight hours.
With the vast majority of the hi-res progs suggesting the
convection able to penetrate the Nrn sections of the region, while
helping to suppress the upper ridging S a bit, have increased
pops to likely for the far NW zones, tapering pops down to chance
closer to the I-30 corridor. Mesoscale bndrys and the presence of
a weak shear axis leftover from this convection appear as if they
may help sustain some scattered convection Friday morning for NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR. before these features wash out during the
afternoon as the mid-level ridging tries to rebuild back N into SE
OK/SW AR by the evening. Will have to see where these remnant
bndrys end up though as they may still focus the potential for
isolated afternoon convection closer to the I-20 corridor of E
TX/N LA, but will leave these areas dry for now as the remain
closer to the suppression beneath the ridge. The cloud cover and
lingering convection over the Nrn zones should result in slightly
cooler afternoon temps Friday than areas to the S, which should
provide at least a little relief to the heat.

With the mid-level ridging expanding back N into Srn AR Friday
night/Saturday, sinking air beneath the ridge should again dial
the heat back up areawide with dry conditions returning to much of
the region. Max temps should climb into the mid 90s across most
areas, with a few upper 90s not completely ruled out. However,
some relief to the heat and dry conditions appear on the way for
the latter half of the weekend into the start of the new work
week as the ridge is suppressed S to the TX coast into the Gulf
along the base of abnormally deep longwave troughing that will
begin to dig S through the Cntrl Plains/OK and the Ozarks Sunday,
and into our region by Monday. This trough should reinforce a weak
cool front S into the region Sunday, which when combined with
ample instability and increasing Pacific moisture riding E along
the base of the trough, should aid in the initiation of scattered
to numerous convection across the region Sunday, especially
continuing into Sunday night and Monday. The medium range guidance
suggests that the front may pull up stationary Sunday night/Monday
somewhere over E TX/N LA, which would focus the potential for
heavy and potentially training rainfall over these areas, which
would certainly benefit the severe and extreme drought in place.
The convection should begin to gradually shift S by Tuesday as
drier air deepens behind the longwave trough axis, although the
presence of the attendant H850 trough from Deep E TX across N LA
may help to maintain some convection redevelopment through
midweek. With the increasing convection and cloud cover comes a
cooling trend with temps through at least midweek, certainly a
welcome relief to the hot and humid conditions observed as of
late.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Seeing some weak elevated cu across portions of N LA and SC AR
attm...otherwise VFR conditions currently prevailing to begin the
start of the 06z TAF period. VFR conditions will be temporary
however as we should see a return to MVFR ceilings across most of
our airspace overnight and as we approach sunrise Thu Morning. The
ELD and MLU terminals may escape this returning cloud cover towards
sunrise but it will be close. Eventually by mid to late morning on
Thu, should see those MVFR ceilings lift and/or scatter out with VFR
conditions returning to all terminals. VFR conditions should prevail
from Noon through the end of the 06z TAF period. Any convection
today will be very isolated at best and was not included in this TAF
package. Look for sustained S to SSE winds overnight with speeds
near 10kts. After sunrise and especially by mid morning through the
late afternoon hours on Thu, look for S to SSW winds sustained near
10-14kts with gusts upwards of 25kts, especially at the TYR, GGG,
TXK and SHV terminals. Winds should decouple after sunset Thu
evening.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight across Southeast
Oklahoma and possibly the northern sections of Southwest Arkansas.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  94  77 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  95  77  94  76 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  92  76  88  74 /   0  60  50  10
TXK  97  78  93  77 /   0  30  40  10
ELD  95  77  91  75 /   0  20  30  10
TYR  93  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
GGG  95  77  95  76 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  94  76  95  75 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13