846
FXUS64 KSHV 242334
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
534 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cloud cover and southerly flow has been on the the increase today
in response to a developing sfc low across the Central Plains along
a cold front. Despite the clouds, gusty southerly winds have kept
the warming trend going across the area, with most locations
currently seeing temps on the mid to upper 70s. Can`t rule out a
few isolated 80 degree temps before the day ends. Dry conditions
will continue into tonight, with a few breaks in cloud cover this
evening. But, cloud will start to return just before daybreak,
as the aforementioned frontal boundary moves into our SE Oklahoma
and adjacent SW Arkansas zones. The strong southerly winds should
yield warmer temps tonight, with lows only falling into the upper
50s to lower 60s.

The frontal boundary will continue to push into the region on
Monday. However, despite the strong southerly flow, deep layer
moisture will be limited. But, short-term progs still indicate
some showers developing along the boundary. Most of it will be
confined to Southern Arkansas and our North-Central/Northeastern
Louisiana zones. One thing of note, we could see some compressional
heating ahead of the front across areas south of the I-30
corridor Monday afternoon. Combined with strong southerly flow,
temps could climb into the lower 80s in many of these locations,
which will approach record highs.

/20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Cooler and more seasonal temps will return late Monday into
Tuesday in wake of the front, along with sunny skies. But, this
will be short-lived, as the front will return northward as a warm
front on Wednesday, with high temps generally climbing back into
the 70s areawide. Rain chances will also return by Wednesday
night into Thursday, as upper trough will swing across the Plains,
bringing another cold front across the region on Thanksgiving
Day. Models have trended a little more drier with this boundary,
confining rain chances to our Southern Arkansas and North-
Central/Northeastern Louisiana zones. Dry and cooler conditions
will return in wake of this front, with portions of the region
seeing morning lows near or below freezing again on Friday and
Saturday mornings.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

For the 25/00z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some mid
to high level clouds moving from west to east across the region
with the mid-level clouds mainly over KTXK, KSHV, and KMLU with
SCT250 elsewhere. After a windy day, winds have come down some,
still around 5-10 kts from the south. Expecting winds to stay near
or below 10 kts for all terminals through the rest of the evening
and into the overnight hours before increasing again by late
Monday morning and into the afternoon hours. In addition, we
should see some low clouds tonight for most terminals, bringing
OVC MVFR conditions around 25/12z through 25/18z. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  81  48  65 /   0  20   0   0
MLU  60  81  49  63 /   0  20  20   0
DEQ  58  69  36  59 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  63  75  42  62 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  60  77  43  62 /   0  20   0   0
TYR  64  77  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  63  78  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  84  47  68 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...33