172
FXUS64 KSHV 070606
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
106 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Removed a few more Parishes from the Flood Watch. The heavy rain
threat continues only for our Grant and LaSalle Parish for a bit
longer, but runoff remains heavy with a couple of Flood Advisories
still in place. The next issuance will cancel the remaining Watch
areas. Also, we made some edits to overnight lows with a few more
50s likely to occur. Update to the zones is already available.
/24/

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Wide range of 60s for the most part in the wake of our heavy
storm push with 59 the coolest at Idabel and 69 in Lufkin the
warmest across our Four-State area. Light NE winds are a little
gusty in a few spots in the direct wake of the upper vort, but
these winds are not increasing at this time. Cloudy skies will
remain, with some patchy fog as we slowly clear out our remaining
LA Parishes with widespread showers and some occasional cloud to
cloud rumbles. The HRRR shows a little more redevelopment
overnight, but coverage for the watch is perhaps done. We will
likely cancel additional Parishes as the ongoing flash flood
warnings expire. No changes to much except wholesale shifts in the
PoPs/WX along with the headlines. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 233 PM
CDT Tue May 6 2025

The long term period will see it`s primary influence from an upper
level disturbance parked over the Four State Region through the end
of the week and through the upcoming weekend. As a result, daily
isolated showers, maybe a few t-storms will be possible. Anomalistic
blocking to the east and north of the upper low will begin to
collapse into mid-week next week, allowing for the disturbance to
kick east and out of the local area. PoPs through the extended will
be marginal, generally less than 50s, with many even lower.

Under the upper low, temperatures will trend close to seasonal, if
not a few degrees below, with highs in the mid to upper 70`s.
Towards the back side of the forecast period, leading into mid-week,
ridging will begin to gradually introduce itself back to the local
area, with long range projections indicating a stretch of 80`s,
potentially upper 80`s for some by next Tuesday.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

For the 07/06Z TAF update, IFR/LIFR vis/cigs in effect now are
expected to linger until after 07/15Z before MVFR improvements
gradually occur. Relatively light winds will reduce the speed of
any flight category improvements with VFR until near the end of
the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, however,
any additional damage reports from yesterday`s storms are
appreciated. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  66  84  63 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  84  65  83  64 /  30  30  60  40
DEQ  79  56  78  57 /  10  30  40  20
TXK  82  61  81  60 /  10  20  40  20
ELD  83  61  82  59 /  10  30  50  30
TYR  82  62  81  60 /  10  20  20  10
GGG  83  62  82  59 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  85  62 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ005-006-013-014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16