775
FXUS64 KSHV 101725
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Precipitation chances to increase across the region starting
   today and into Monday and Tuesday

 - While it will remain hot across the region into next week, heat
   index values should remain below critical thresholds

 - Unsettled pattern could continue into the middle/end of next
   week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

I wanted to get the discussion and forecast out a little earlier
than normal today. The main reason is because radar imagery is
already showing some returns across northern Louisiana with some
additional returns starting to pop up across deep east Texas. Our
PoPs did not really account much for this activity so I wanted to
get an update out. I also increased PoPs again across much of east
Texas and northern Louisiana for this afternoon based on what the
short range model guidance is suggesting. We seemed to over
perform yesterday and I see no reason why we wouldn`t over perform
today, especially with the showers already showing up. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday and
Tuesday across the area with a somewhat unsettled weather pattern
into the middle of the week as well. One good thing about this is
that our overall rainfall amounts through the next 7-days continue
to come up some.

As for temperatures, bottom line is this...it will remain hot as
the middle of August always is. But I think we will remain below
those critical heat index threshold through the middle of the week
thanks to the increased cloud cover and rain chances. As such, I
don`t think there will be much need in an Heat Advisories for the
next few days although some areas will still flirt with 105 degree
heat index values at times. This could change towards the end of
the week as temperatures begin to increase and rain chances start
to decrease. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the 10/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some MVFR possible from isolated VCTS/-TSRA through
11/03Z across most of the airspace. Southerly winds will remain
well below 10kts. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  40
MLU  74  92  74  90 /  10  30  20  60
DEQ  71  92  71  92 /  10  10   0  30
TXK  75  94  75  94 /  10  20   0  30
ELD  72  91  72  91 /  10  30  10  40
TYR  74  92  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
GGG  74  93  73  92 /  20  30  10  40
LFK  73  92  73  92 /  10  40  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...16