321
FXUS64 KSHV 150611
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
111 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper ridging has kept quiet conditions across the region this
evening after a near record warmth day in some areas. However,
clouds continue to stream across the region from the southwest.
Overnight, the upper ridge will start to push east of the region,
transitioning us to southwesterly flow aloft. Expect clouds to
continue to push into the area from the southwest, along with a
weak embedded disturbance to move across the I-30 corridor within
the upper flow. This could result in a few isolated showers
developing in areas along and north of Interstate 30 just before
daybreak, and continuing into the early morning hours. Because of
this, decided to make some adjustments to the forecast to add
slight chance POPs. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies to
continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Elevated cloud cover is already beginning to move into the region
from the southwest according to visible satellite imagery. Clouds
will continue to spread and cover most of the region overnight
tonight. That, in combination with the still elevated winds, will
help keep things warm tonight. Most areas will likely see low
temperatures around or above 70.

With the cloud cover and elevated winds that will persist into
Wednesday, afternoon highs should be a tad lower than we observed
today. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be possible
during the early afternoon hours. There is still the expectation
that a weak frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary in the
vicinity of the Ouachita mountains. There is a decent amount of
moisture expected along and ahead of this front, creating a good
environment for shower development if there is enough forcing
present to initiate anything. Due to the somewhat favorable
environment, SPC has outlined a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorm development in areas along and north of the I-30
corridor for Thursday. The potential for showers will likely
continue into the overnight hours along with a brief decreasing in
winds. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds will likely ramp up in intensity again on Friday along with
spotty rain chances in NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas
from a disturbed upper-level pattern. A more defined cold front
will impact the area Saturday, as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lake region. This cold front could spread the
rain chances as far south as the I-20 corridor. Some scattered
thunder will be a possibility as well. At this point in time, SPC
has not outlooked any part of the area for severe weather on
Saturday, mainly because of the uncertainty on the location of the
front. Despite this, severe potential can`t be ruled out due to
the expected shear profile and instability in the area.

SW flow associated with the amplifying ridge aloft will help keep
temperatures warm through the end of the period. Clouds may
briefly clear Monday afternoon, but will return during the middle
of the work week. The next thing to keep an eye on will be the
deepening low that long-range guidance is suggesting will be
building in the western US on Tuesday, which could bring impacts
to the Ark-La-Tx late next week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR overnight with some brief MVFR
cigs 12-16Z. Windy day once again with LLWS around 50KT from S/SW
attm that will mix down with heating early today with
S/SW10-20G30KT. KTXK may see a window for convection tonight with
our I-20 terminals potentially seeing same window late Friday/eve.
Weak cool front approaches with touchy convection, but we keep S
winds all wknd. /24/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  93  76  91 /   0  10  20  20
MLU  75  92  75  91 /   0   0  20  30
DEQ  70  88  67  87 /  20  20  30  30
TXK  74  92  72  88 /  10  20  40  30
ELD  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  40  40
TYR  75  91  74  89 /  10  10  20  20
GGG  74  91  73  89 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  75  92  75  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...24