759
FXUS66 KSGX 192032
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
132 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with warming conditions for inland areas is expected into the
middle of next week. For the end of next week, a cooling trend looks
possible although there is uncertainty in the degree of cooling.
Marine layer low clouds and fog will eventually return to coastal
areas next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 1 PM, there were still some localized northerly winds gusting 30
to 40 mph below the Santa Ana mountains, Cajon Pass, and San
Gorgonio Pass. Those locally stronger winds are expected to diminish
this evening. Dry and warm conditions are expected for inland areas
into at least the middle of next week.

With the return of weak onshore flow Sunday, highs near the coast
may be a degree or two cooler than today but additional warming is
expected for inland locations. High temperatures for inland areas
will continue to increase a few degrees each day through Wednesday
as weak high pressure builds over Southern California. By Wednesday
highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal away from the
coast. For Thursday into the weekend, there is increasing
uncertainty in the position of the upper ridge and a trough
somewhere off the west Coast. About 50 percent of the solutions keep
the ridge overhead, maintaining warmer weather, while the other 50
percent has the trough somewhere along the coast or even already
progressing inland. These discrepancies raise questions surrounding
how much of a cooling trend there will be for the end of next week,
if there is even a cooling trend at all. Current forecast follows
the NBM with a few degrees of cooling each day Thursday through
Saturday.

Slightly enhanced drainage flow each night with offshore pressure
gradients make it difficult to pinpoint when marine layer low clouds
and fog will make a return. Latest NBM has 10 to 15 percent chance
of low clouds returning to the coast by Monday with slightly greater
chances (around 25 percent) Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
192030Z...Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear conditions through Sunday
afternoon though patchy marine stratus (based around 1000-2000ft
MSL) could form and stay offshore tonight. Gap winds through the
Cajon Pass are trending down but could still bring localized gusty
winds of 20-25kts for the next hour or so. A more typical
diurnal sea breeze sets up for Sunday.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies prevail through Sunday
afternoon. North to northwesterly winds gusting 20-25kts should
gradually wane through the next few hours for the mountain passes
and parts of the Coachella Valley. More typical diurnally-driven
wind directions return on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan