Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
969 FXUS66 KSGX 170527 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 927 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers will continue through Monday morning, mainly along and west of the mountains with mostly cloudy conditions. Another weaker weather system will move through the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, bringing increased chances for rainfall and mountain snowfall for areas above 5,000 feet. Drier weather is expected on Wednesday, with an increasing chance for precipitation by Thursday or Friday, though details with this system still remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... No significant changes to the forecast this evening as weak showers move across the coastal area. Any additional accumulations from these showers will be minimal, with activity expecting to generally decrease ahead of the next round of instability moving through the area Monday afternoon and evening. Previous discussion from 1:51 PM PST Sunday November 16th, 2005. Radar shows scattered showers becoming more isolated over the coast and western valleys, aligning with model projections. Isolated showers will continue in these areas overnight, with some areas remaining completely dry. As our storm from Saturday moves into Utah, another weaker Pacific storm continues to move closer to California (currently 300-500 miles off the Central Coast). This will continue the cooler and wetter weather pattern we have been seeing, though this system will bringing more cooler air from the north. A frontal boundary from this low will move over the area from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. Rain rates will not be as high with this next storm system with hourly rates near 0.50"/hr for areas along and west of the mountains. Snow levels will remain high on Monday over 7,000 feet. As the storm passes over the region, snow levels will drop near 5,000 feet by Monday night through Tuesday. Mountain communities above 6,000 have the potential to receive 1-3" of total snowfall. This forecast is still of lower confidence depending on the exact path of the storm; higher overall totals may occur. The weather system will exit by Wednesday morning, with a mix of clouds and sun with drier weather for most. Cooler temperatures will also be accompanied by the exiting system, with lows in the upper teens around Big Bear to 30s across the high desert. Some 30s are also possible for some coastal foothill locations like Ramona and locally into the Inland Empire. Another area of low pressure will move into the West Coast by Thursday into Friday. Models continue to have a difficult time coming to a consensus on the exact track of this weather system. It all comes down the interaction between it and a high pressure system offshore. If the high pressure system expands closer to our region, there is a better chance of drier/not as wet weather to occur. If the system stays more over the ocean, the area of low pressure moving in from the north has a better chance to give us a cooler/wetter weather pattern. There is a noted drying trend in ensemble models over the past couple of days, so this does favor models showing the high moving closer to our region. The chances for precipitation do remain, but occurrence and amounts are very preliminary. If the system goes far enough inland over Nevada or Arizona, Santa Ana winds and drier weather may make an appearance by Friday into next weekend. The details are still a bit unclear, but keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days as our confidence builds. && .AVIATION... 170500Z...FEW-SCT bases at 1-4kft MSL, BKN-OVC bases at 5-8kft. ISO -SHRA activity resumes briefly Monday morning between 11-19z. A frontal band arrives from the northwest starting in Orange County and the Inland Empire 22-00z, 02-04z in SD County. Southerly winds strengthen and SCT -SHRA picks up out ahead of it, 21-23z. The frontal band moves through the region 00-10z Tue, bringing RA/-RA, reducing VIS 1-5SM and cigs SCT-OVC between 500-3000 ft MSL across the coastal basin. && .MARINE... Northwest winds strengthen again Monday afternoon ahead of the next storm system bringing gusts to 20-25 knots through the evening and overnight hours, along with another round of precipitation. && .BEACHES... An incoming storm system will lead to elevated surf along west- facing beaches late Monday into Tuesday. Surf 4 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Suk AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink